Our football staff is focused on six of Sunday's biggest games for our NFL predictions in Week 18 on January 4.
First, we'll target Colts vs. Texans and Cowboys vs. Giants in the early window. Later in the afternoon, we have a pair of picks for Lions vs. Bears and Commanders vs. Eagles. We also have picks for Titans vs. Jaguars, Saints vs. Falcons, and more.
Let's dive into our expert NFL picks and best bets for the Week 18 Sunday slate.
NFL Predictions & Picks — Week 18
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Cowboys vs Giants Spread Prediction
I'm quite annoyed the line is bad enough in this game that we have to pay attention to it and bet it, but here we are. I make this spread Cowboys -9.5.
Are we sure Dallas isn't resting guys, and we just don't know yet? The Cowboys have said they want to push, and Dak Prescott is pushing to lead the league in passing yards, while George Pickens is close to some incentives.
Dallas is coming off extra rest and playing to get to .500 in Brian Schottenheimer's first year. I think the Cowboys try in this spot, and if they do, this number is way off.
Sure, the Giants just won and blew their chance at the No. 1 pick, but they also did that last year in Week 17, then promptly lost to Philadelphia's backups the following game.
We know what these teams are. Both defenses are terrible, and Dallas's offense is far better than its counterpart. Klayton Adams designed this Cowboys offense to punish awful run defenses like the Giants — and Pickens and CeeDee Lamb will win individual matchups, too.
This is when you back Dak Prescott and the Cowboys — as comfortable favorites against bad teams, especially in the division.
Dallas has won 16-of-17 against the Giants, with 30+ points in over half of those, and the Cowboys have scored 36+ in six of their last 14 against New York.
Cowboys -3.5 is an absolutely criminal line if Dallas is playing at full strength. The Giants have allowed 29 points per game in their losses this season, with at least 33 points allowed in almost half of their losses.
I'll also play a Cowboys team total over 33.5 as a small escalator at +330 (bet365).
Pick: Cowboys -3.5 (-105)
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Colts vs Texans Over/Under Pick
By Bet Labs
This NFL system is built on the idea that when games are played in closed domes with low posted totals the environment strongly favors offensive production.
Indoor settings eliminate weather variables like wind, rain, or cold temperatures — which often suppress scoring outdoors, and when oddsmakers set the total below 45 in these controlled atmospheres, they may undervalue the consistency of passing attacks.
With teams like the Colts and Texans, who are accustomed to playing in a dome, the pace and rhythm of offenses are more reliable and efficiency increases.
This leads to inflated chances of overs hitting when totals are artificially low since both teams are more likely to sustain drives and finish possessions without the disruptions common to outdoor football.
Pick: Over 38.5 (-110)
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Titans vs Jaguars Spread Pick
By Bet Labs
This NFL system works on the premise that teams coming off a season with four or fewer wins lack the underlying strength to justify being installed as favorites, even when the market leans slightly in their direction.
When these traditionally weak teams are favored and the betting splits show limited support, it often reflects a false perception of improvement that has not yet materialized on the field.
Fading these favorites captures value by siding against teams that have not proven they can handle the role of favorite and are more likely to underperform against the spread, despite modest market backing.
Pick: Titans +13.5 (-110)
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Saints vs Falcons ATS Prediction
By Bet Labs
The NFL system titled "Small Bad Away "Dogs" captures how teams that were poor in the previous season but enter the new year as underdogs on the road often exceed expectations when the spread is modest.
Teams with few wins from the prior year, such as the Saints, are usually overlooked by both oddsmakers and bettors, yet these squads can show meaningful improvement with roster changes, draft additions, or coaching adjustments.
Being priced as small underdogs suggests the market already sees potential, but not enough to account for the motivational edge and element of surprise that these teams often bring.
Playing in the regular season, when effort is high and opportunities to reset a narrative are strongest, creates a profitable window where small underdogs with bad histories prove to be undervalued and capable of covering spreads consistently.
Pick: Saints +3.5 (-110)
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Lions vs Bears ATS Pick
By Brandon Anderson
My numbers say this line is about right, but this angle is all about matchup and motivation.
Detroit hung 52 points on this Bears in Week 2, and though Chicago is a bit healthier now, the defense remains extremely gettable.
Both offenses are loaded, and both defenses are flailing, which means we could get a shootout. The Bears have the better offensive line now, but Detroit may actually be a bit healthier, and the Lions are on extra rest and have won six of seven against Chicago.
The big question is whether Detroit will show up mentally after being eliminated from the playoffs — I'm banking on a full effort.
Sure, Detroit can lock up last place in the division with a loss, but that only affects three games on next year's schedule, and nothing we know about Dan Campbell says he wants to end the season on a four-game losing streak or opt for the easy way out.
This is still a chance to sweep former Lions coach Ben Johnson and one-up a rival, getting over .500 on the season. That stuff matters to Campbell.
The Lions are still 14-3 ATS after their last 17 losses, and several other trends back Detroit here as well. Campbell and Jared Goff are both terrific as underdogs and against teams over .500.
On top of all that, this game could end up totally meaningless for the Bears. It looks like the Eagles will rest, and if Philadelphia loses, Chicago is locked into the 2-seed.
Give me Detroit +3 and +140 on the moneyline (bet365).
Pick: Lions +3 (-110)
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Commanders vs Eagles Spread Prediction
By Brandon Anderson
I'm not going to pretend I like much of anything about the Commanders. The defense is old; Josh Johnson stinks. This is all about the number in a rest spot for Philadelphia.
The Eagles already announced they're resting quarterback Jalen Hurts and many other starters, and it makes sense — the team is locked as the 3-seed unless they win and get a Bears loss. This game is mostly meaningless for Philadelphia.
That announcement saw the line drop from around Eagles -7.5 on Sunday night to Eagles -4.5, with the total also dropping three points, but that's not nearly enough.
This is the top-heaviest team in the league, a full stars-and-scrubs roster with a huge amount invested into its top guys.
It's not just Hurts — take Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, either of Jordan Mailata or Lane Johnson out of the lineup, and the offense gets significantly worse. There's little depth behind these guys — same with the star tackles and corners in defense.
This line has not moved anywhere close to enough. We don't know exactly who will or won't play, but I make it about 8-to-10 points in Washington's favor, given the quality of starters likely missing and the lack of depth behind them.
However, this line moved only three points! And to be fair, Eagles -7.5 was likely a slight hedge on possible rest, as I would make this Philadelphia -9.5 healthy, but that still puts this close to a coin flip with the Eagles resting.
Tanner McKee is a fine backup, but let's be real about the caliber of guys Philadelphia will be playing.
It's all about the number, and if the number is off by that much, we should be aggressive: Commanders +4.5 along with +180 on the moneyline (DraftKings), and sprinkle part of your bet on Washington -6.5 at +370 (bet365) in case the Eagles totally pack it in.
If you do think Washington can win here, then Chicago's game becomes meaningless for the Bears. A Commanders-Lions moneyline parlay is correlated, but not priced accordingly, so play that too at +536 (bet365).
Pick: Commanders +4.5 (-115)
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