NFL Week 7 concludes with Texans vs Seahawks on Monday Night Football.
The Texans enter MNF on a two-game winning streak and fresh off their bye week. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are coming off a win over the Jaguars.
- For more Monday Night Football coverage, check out our Texans vs Seahawks preview, which includes five picks for MNF.
Tonight, I'm targeting Nick Chubb in the prop market as I suspect the Texans' running back has a favorable matchup against the Seahawks defense. Find my over/under prop bet for Chubb below.
NFL Prop Bet: Nick Chubb Over/Under Prediction
Nick Chubb has faced three opponents that play two-high coverage at a top-10 rate and two opponents that play two-high coverage at a bottom 10 rate.
- T-10 rate: 2.67 targets per gm, 2.33 receceptions per game
- B-10 rate: 1 target/game, 0 receptions/gamem
The Seahawks play the fifth-most two-high coverage and Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud tends to check down against this type of defense.
- 3.2% vs. single high (6.3% last year)
- 11.8% vs. two high (12.6% last year)
Stroud also checks down more when not facing a blitz:
- 2.6% vs. blitz (5.8% last year)
- 7.5% vs. no blitz (10.7% last year)
The Seahawks blitz at the lowest rate in the NFL and they have allowed the second-highest target share to RBs and highest reception share to RBs.
