Chiefs vs. Ravens Bet: Mark Ingram’s Prop Has Value for Monday Night Football

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite props for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he's 30-14 (68.2%) so far and has a 233-162-5 (59.0%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app.

Find his pick for the Monday Night Football showdown between the Chiefs and Ravens below. And if you're looking for more action, his projections also power the FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which grades every prop.

NFL Prop Bet: Chiefs vs. Ravens

• The Pick: Mark Ingram Over 50.5 Rush Yards (-110)
• Bet Now:FanDuel

The prop we should be attacking tonight is Mark Ingram's rushing yards.

The Ravens have won by 32 and 17 points in their first two games of 2020. It's fair to assume that facing the defending Super Bowl champs will mean a close game script for all four quarters, and one reason I love Ingram's over is my theory that the Ravens save him for spots like tonight.

Below is the Ravens' rush attempt distribution in the first three quarters vs. the fourth quarter in 2020:

This tells me that the Ravens still consider Ingram the main early-down back — aka when the game is still competitive. Gus Edwards led the backfield in fourth-quarter attempts in each of their two blowout wins while J.K. Dobbins has dominated the passing down work, running a route on 47% of the Ravens' pass plays compared to Ingram's 30%.

We should expect Ingram to maintain his lead back role for all four quarters tonight.

In terms of rush attempts inside the 5-yard line, here's the breakdown through two games: Dobbins (2), Edwards (1) and Ingram (0). We're going off a very small sample size, but the Ravens appear to save him for carries between the 20s.

This sets up beautifully for betting the over on his rushing yards.

Finally, the weakness of the Chiefs defense is their inability to stop the run.

Here are Kansas City's rush vs. pass ranks according to Football Outsiders' DVOA in each of the past two seasons:

• 2019: Pass 7th vs. rush 26th
• 2020: Pass 17th vs. rush 26th

From a strategic point of view, this makes sense. Teams likely won't keep up with the Chiefs offense by countering with a run-heavy game plan. However, the only team that could pull it off would be the Ravens.

I'm projecting Ingram for 13.3 carries tonight, which gives him a median projection of 56.5 rushing yards. Every yard is crucial in this market, so be sure to shop for the best line. I would bet this up to 53.5.

Here are my projected chances of Ingram going over or under various lines so you can compare to your book:

[Bet Mark Ingram's over at FanDuel completely risk-free for $1,000]