NFL Prop Bets
Greg Olsen is set to miss four to six weeks with a foot injury, which will open up some opportunity for the Seahawks' backup tight ends.
Here are the average routes run per dropbacks over the five games since their Week 6 bye:
- Greg Olsen: 56%
- Will Dissly: 28%
- Jacob Hollister: 23%
Dissly will likely get the start as he is the better blocker, but he’s proven to be a solid pass catcher as well — he has zero drops in 58 career targets. He flashed his upside in Weeks 1-5 of the 2018 and 2019 seasons before suffering a season-ending injury in both.
I’m projecting Dissly to run a route on 50% of dropbacks on Monday night, which should produce three to four targets and 2.7 projected receptions. Five of his 14 receptions have gone for 15 or more yards this season, which means he could clear this number with only two receptions against the Eagles.
Hollister should also see a significant increase in usage if either David Moore or Freddie Swain (both are game-time decisions) are ruled out, which would trigger a bet on his over as well. Hollister is the more athletic tight end and is capable of lining up in the slot.
Rookie Colby Parkinson will also see an increase in playing time, but I doubt he plays enough to prevent Dissly or Hollister from seeing significant increases in usage. Parkinson missed training camp with a broken foot, and the tight end position is already difficult for a rookie to adapt to the NFL in normal times, so I’m guessing a season during a global pandemic in which practice time was limited, a fourth-string rookie is going to be behind the curve on development.
There is always uncertainty when projecting a "next man up" situation. However, in this case, I’m erring on the side of caution with Dissly and I’m still showing a 60% chance he goes over this prop.
I would be comfortable betting this up to 24.5, but as always, make sure you get the best number you have access to! Here are his projected chances of going over or under various lines based on my 10,000 player prop simulations:
