The Best NFL Prop Bet For Buccaneers vs. Giants on Monday Night Football

The Best NFL Prop Bet For Buccaneers vs. Giants on Monday Night Football article feature image
Credit:

Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Tampa Bay Buccaneers standouts Tom and Tyler Johnson.

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he had a 60-35 (63.2%) record heading into Week 8 and a 264-183-5 (59.1%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.

Find his pick for Monday Night Football below. And if you’re looking for more action, his projections also power the FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which grades every prop.

NFL Prop Bets For Buccaneers vs. Giants

  • The Pick: Tyler Johnson Under 35.5 Rec Yards (-121)
  • Bet Now: BetMGM

Tyler Johnson is an underrated fifth-round rookie who was considered one of the best route runners of the 2020 class. Oh, and he has the greatest quarterback of all-time throwing him the ball.

However, I will be fading Johnson’s receiving yards tonight.

While I’m making quite a few assumptions in favor of Johnson’s production tonight, I’m still showing value on the under.

Chris Godwin is out with a fractured finger, which means Johnson is likely to start in Godwin’s place. Johnson had four catches for 61 yards in his Week 5 start for Godwin, but there are two important points of context to keep in mind:

  1. The Bucs lost that game to the Bears, 20-19. Now the Bucs are 13-point favorites against the Giants (check real-time odds here), which means it could be a more run-heavy game script as they pad their lead in the second half.
  2. More importantly, in that Week 5 matchup, Justin Watson was out with a chest injury — and Watson was the wide receiver who started for Godwin in Week 4 and saw an 85% routes run per dropback. Johnson then inherited that role in Week 5 and saw an 84% routes run per dropback.

For Monday night, I’m actually projecting Johnson for a 13% target rate, which may be aggressive considering he’s seen a target on only 9% of routes run on the season — a very low rate.

And while he’s caught an impressive 88% of his targets, it’s an unsustainable rate.

Johnson doesn’t have elite speed or run routes downfield often, so there are plenty of scenarios in which he grabs three balls and still goes under this yardage total.

Overall, while my projections are favorable for Johnson, there is still value on this under. I would bet it down to 30.5 yards, but here are the projected chances of him going over or under various yardages based on my 10,000 player prop simulations for you to compare to whatever lines are available to you:

Yards
Over
Under
28.5
51.8%
48.2%
29.5
49.8%
50.2%
30.5
47.5%
52.5%
31.5
45.6%
54.4%
32.5
44.5%
55.5%
33.5
42.8%
57.2%
34.5
41.5%
58.5%
35.5
39.6%
60.4%

[Bet now at BetMGM and get a $500 INSTANT deposit match]

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