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NFL Prop Picks: The Under to Bet For Packers vs. 49ers On Thursday Night Football

Credit:

Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Trent Taylor

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he’s 65-42 (60.7%) so far and a 272-191-5 (58.7%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.

Find his pick for Thursday Night Football below. And if you’re looking for more action, his projections also power the FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which grades every prop.

NFL Prop Bets For Packers vs. 49ers

  • The Pick: Trent Taylor Under 48.5 Rec Yards (-125)
  • Bet Now: DraftKings

There is very little clarity as to who will suit up for the Packers or 49ers on Thursday night. However, we know that Trent Taylor will likely be the 49ers’ No. 1 WR with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne out.

This line seems inflated, likely based on  the narrative that the 49ers will only have Trent Taylor tonight — but that’s not true.

I’m projecting Taylor to run a route on 95% of pass plays and anticipating a spike in his targets per route run, which means I’m not showing value on the under because I’m underestimating his playing time — in fact, even if he plays every single snap on Thursday night, I would still like this angle.

The best way to think about this prop is not as a bet against him catching the ball, but rather as a bet on his teammates to step up:

  • RB Jerick McKinnon: An increase in dump-offs.
  • FB Kyle Juszczyk: Could see an increase in designed plays.
  • WR Richie James: Head coach Kyle Shanahan likes to use James in creative ways in the run/pass game.
  • WR Kevin White: Former first-round pick could see a few targets.
  • WR River Cracraft: A sneaky target vacuum who could be activated and see some playing time.
  • TE Ross Dwelley: Has played the role of Dollar Store George Kittle before and could see 3-5 targets.
  • TE Jordan Reed: He could be activated from the IR and play. In that case, he could see a few targets. (I’m trying to lock this Taylor under in before Reed is potentially announced as active.)

Even if Taylor does end up getting 4-6 receptions on Thursday night — I have him projected at 4.0 — he could go under. His average depth of target on the season is already 5.4, and the Packers defense is likely game-planning on Taylor being Nick Mullens’ favorite target and will look to prevent Taylor from racking up too many yards after the catch.

I like this under down to 41.5 given how many “outs” we have.

Here are my projected chances of Taylor going over or under various lines:

Rec Yds
Over
Under
41.5
45.8%
54.2%
42.5
44.6%
55.4%
43.5
43.0%
57.0%
44.5
41.9%
58.1%
45.5
40.1%
59.9%
46.5
38.8%
61.2%
47.5
37.7%
62.3%
48.5
36.2%
63.8%

[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 bonus, including a $500 risk-free bet]

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