10 NFL Prop Picks For Sunday: Player Props To Bet For Week 5
Adam Glanzman/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Gesicki.
NFL player prop bets can offer a ton of value. I’ve identified 10 that are offering value for Sunday’s main slate based on my Week 5 player projections.
Let’s jump right in.
Week 5 NFL Prop Bets
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Raiders at Chiefs Props
Josh Jacobs Under 81.5 Rush Yards (-113) [Bet now at FanDuel]
Dating back to last season, this is Jacobs’ breakdown of rushing yards based on Raiders wins and losses:
- Wins (8): 96.4
- Losses (9): 75.4
The Raiders are 11-point underdogs against the Chiefs (find real-time odds here), and they could be forced into a pass-heavy game script early on. Jacobs will be effective as a runner in the first half, but become more of a pass-catcher in the second as the Raiders play catch-up.
I like the value on the under here.
Bet down to 78.5
Rams at Washington Props
There are a few reasons I want to invest in Thomas catching four or more passes this week.
First, he has done so in three out of four games so far. Second, he has consistently run a route on 85-95% dropbacks in every game. Third, Kyle Allen is replacing Dwayne Haskins, and that’s a move that could benefit Thomas.
Allen has proven to be a more accurate passer than Haskins (which isn’t a difficult task), so it can only help Thomas’ 46.4% catch rate (fifth-lowest among qualified pass-catchers). Allen also showed a tendency to target his tight ends last season with the Panthers.
Additionally, backup tight end Marcus Baugh is expected to miss Week 5 and Terry McLaurin is likely to face Jalen Ramsey for much of the game, potentially leading to a few more targets this week for Thomas.
Bet to 2.5 (-190)
Bet to 3.5 (+125)
Jaguars at Texans Props
David Johnson Under 3.5 Receptions (-182) [Bet now at BetMGM]
Despite the massive juice on this prop, there is still a ton of value on the under.
DJ has yet to grab four balls in a game this season, despite the 0-4 Texans being in a pass-heavy trailing game script in every game so far — and that was with Duke Johnson missing two of the four games. Well, Duke returned last week and cut significantly into DJ’s routes run per dropback — he ran on only 38% in Week 4 after averaging an 82% rate in Weeks 1-3.
DJ should play more of the 2019 Carlos Hyde role in Sunday’s game with the Texans favored by 5.5 points, which should allow the team to use him heavily on the ground and use Duke as a change-of-pace/third-down back.
I’m projecting DJ for 2.3 receptions.
Cardinals at Jets Props
Larry Fitzgerald Under 35.5 Receiving Yards (-112) [Bet now at DraftKings]
At 37 years old, Fitzgerald is in the middle of his inevitable decline
DeAndre Hopkins is the focal point of this passing offense now while Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella are both trending up in terms of health and playing time.
Fitz has run a route on 90% of passing plays the past two weeks and posted a combined stat line of 3/4/0. He should bounce back this week, but it’ll be hard for him to clear this number considering his average depth of target at 4.4 yards (only Robert Woods has a lower aDot).
It’s hard to project Fitz to see too much positive regression considering he’s pretty much maxed out in playing time and targets as is — he hasn’t been “lucky” in any metric other than being able to play football at 37.
Bet down to 32.5
Eagles at Steelers Props
My best investments this season have been in rookie wideouts before they break out. Now we have an opportunity to back two in this game.
John Hightower Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-113) [Bet now at FanDuel]
This is more of a bet on opportunity.
With DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery out again this week, we can bank on Hightower to run a route on 80-85% of pass plays. He’s been targeted on only 9% of his routes run so far — a rate that we can expect to regress upward given the lack of competition for targets right now
Bet to 26.5
Chase Claypool Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-113) [Bet now at FanDuel]
This is more of a bet on talent.
Claypool’s situation reminds me of when I was getting Justin Jefferson props in this range back in Week 2. Claypool is buried as the WR4 on this depth chart, but could pass up James Washington as soon as this week
If any Steelers wideout were to miss time, Claypool would see a massive boost in playing time and targets. And he doesn’t even need much playing time to make an impact in the game, as evidenced by his yards per catch of 25.2.
Claypool is too talented for the Steelers to keep under wraps for much longer.
Bet up to 26.5
Bengals at Ravens Props
Mark Andrews Under 4.5 Receptions (-134) [Bet now at DraftKings]
Andrews is an extremely volatile tight end who doesn’t need many catches to put up massive numbers — it’s why he typically offers value in the receptions market
The Ravens should build an early lead against the Bengals, which will limit the need for Lamar Jackson to throw 35 or more times. That’s why I’m projecting Andrews for 3.9 receptions.
That said, I would bet this down to -150, but I’ll wait to see if backup tight end Nick Boyle is active (he is expected to play through a thigh injury). If Boyle is inactive, this will be a no bet from me.
Dolphins at 49ers Props
Mike Gesicki Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-113) [Bet now at FanDuel]
Gesicki is in a mini-slump, posting just 15 yards in back-to-back games. That said, I’m expecting a bounce-back game from Gesicki, and a number like 33.5 is way too low for a player of his caliber.
The 49ers has done a great job of shutting down tight ends so far, but they have yet to face an above-average TE unit.And backup TE Durham Smythe, who has been eating into Gesicki’s playing time the past two weeks, has been ruled out.
I would set this line closer to 38.5 yards.
Bet up to 36.5
Kendrick Bourne Under 38.5 Receiving Yards (-113) [Bet now at FanDuel]
With Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle all back in the lineup and close to 100% health, Bourne is about to see his value plummet. So far he’s averaged a routes run per dropback rate of 87%, but I expect that to drop to 60-70% this week with more competition for targets.
This is a pretty bad line that should be closer to 28.5 yards.
Bet down to 34.5