NFL Prop Bets: The Top Pick For Ravens vs. Browns On Monday Night Football

NFL Prop Bets: The Top Pick For Ravens vs. Browns On Monday Night Football article feature image
Credit:

Adam Glanzman/Getty Images. Pictured: Willie Snead

NFL Prop Bets

Pick
Bet Now 
Willie Snead Over 28.5 Rec Yards (-110)
FanDuel

Snead returns after missing the past two games due to COVID-19 and should immediately slide back in as Lamar Jackson’s No. 2 wide receiver.

Snead should see an increase in volume based on this matchup alone.

He’ll be chased around by slot corner M.J. Stewart, who owns a low 47.0 Pro Football Focus grade and thus shouldn’t pose a threat. The Browns have run Cover 3 and 4 at the highest rate according to SportsInfoSolutions, which Snead has thrived against with a 10.96 yards per target rate — he has a 7.13 yards per target against all other coverages, for context. This makes sense as Cover 3 and 4 zone will typically try to eliminate deep throws at the expense of plays underneath.

The weather could play a minor factor with freezing temperatures and double-digit winds forecasted in Cleveland. That’s enough to limit the number of downfield throws Jackson attempts in favor of a lower average depth of target player such as Snead (8.6 aDOT). His 6.5 yards after catch also ranks 10th among qualified WRs per NFL NextGenStats, which helps raises his floor.

Snead has gone over this number six of his 10 games played despite Jackson underperforming as a passer this season. And I, along with the market, are actually projecting Jackson to throw for 10-15 more yards than his 2020 average tonight.

Given the added volume and perfect matchup for Snead, I would bet this up to 32.5, but here are his projected chances of going over or under various lines based on my 10,000 player prop simulations:

Rec Yds
Over
Under
28.5
58.5%
41.5%
29.5
57.0%
43.0%
30.5
55.5%
44.5%
31.5
53.9%
46.1%
32.5
52.4%
47.6%
33.5
50.9%
49.1%
Bet now at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet

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