NFL Sharp Report: How Pros Are Betting Browns vs. Patriots
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- Our Week 8 NFL Sharp Report details the three games sharps have keyed in on.
- Let's examine how pros are betting Giants at Lions, Broncos at Colts and Browns at Patriots.
The Cleveland Browns are double-digit underdogs to the New England Patriots after a disappointing start to the season. But how are pros betting that spread?
Let’s take a look at our NFL sharp report for Browns-Patriots and two other Week 8 games.
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Everyone who thought the Browns would be a Super Bowl contender before the season began probably didn’t want to see a double-digit spread for this week’s game against the AFC favorite Patriots.
Following New England’s dominant display on Monday Night Football, this line jumped from NE -10.5 to NE -12.5. While the Patriots are getting 71% of bets, it’s the Browns who are getting the attention from sharps. This line reached -13 by midweek and stayed there until Thursday at many books, which is when sharps pounced on it like a cat on a laser pointer.
Cleveland has been hit by nine straight bet signals since then, which has helped them move down to between +10 and +11. Bill Belichick vs. Freddie Kitchens … what could go wrong?
Sharp Angle: Browns (moved from +13 to +10/+11) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions
1 p.m. ET | FOX
We have a couple of enigmatic teams on our hands for this matchup. The Daniel Jones hype has worn off and the Giants are struggling. Meanwhile, some folks think the Lions should be 6-0 if not for the refs, but they enter Week 8 at 2-3-1.
What do you do when you have two enigmatic teams facing off? Shop for the right numbers.
This line opened with the Lions as 7.5-point home favorites and the betting market is essentially split down the middle on spread tickets. Big bettors, however, prefer New York.
The Giants are getting 3x the amount of sharp cash as the Lions and also command more than 80% of the moneyline bets.
This action has caused New York to move through the key number of seven and down to +6, another important number when it comes to betting on NFL spreads.
Sharp Angle: Giants (moved from +7.5 to +6) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts
1 p.m. ET | CBS
While the public is torn on the Giants-Lions game, they’re anything but for Broncos-Colts. Indy is securing more than 75% of the action, but big bettors have toed a line in the sand.
With a 4-2 record and a big win vs. the Texans last week, it’s no surprise that the public loves the Colts. It’s the Broncos, the team that got slapped around for most of last week’s game by Matt Moore’s Chiefs, that have been struck by four bet signals.
While some lopsided ticket splits like this require sharp action to keep the line at a standstill, the sharp activity on Denver has moved their line from +6.5 to +5 or +4.5 depending on the book. The 4.5-5.5 range is the least important area for NFL spreads between three and seven, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it bounced around there a bit.
This total has also seen professional activity. After opening at 43.5, it was the over that saw some initial sharp action. However, since moving to 44, it’s been shrinking. Bet signals have been triggered on under 43.5, 43 and 42.5, which has caused the number to fall between 42 and 41 around the market. While the spread has pros and joes split, the total has them hand-in-hand. More than 60% of bets on the under are accounting for more than 90% of the money.
Sharp Angle: Broncos (moved from +6.5 to +5/+4.5), Under (moved from 44 to 41.5) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]