The NFL Thanksgiving slate features a strong tripleheader, starting with Packers vs Lions and concluding with Bengals vs Ravens, which marks the return of Joe Burrow. Sandwiched in between those games is Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs taking on Dak Prescott and the Cowboys.
We have you covered with NFL spread picks for each game on Thanksgiving, plus an over/under pick for Packers-Lions — find those NFL picks below.
NFL Thanksgiving Predictions & Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
| 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:30 p.m. | |
  | 8:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Packers vs Lions Spread Prediction
By Nick Martin
It's not surprising to see that the Packers have moved down from the key number of three in this matchup — but even at +2.5, it's still Green Bay or pass for me in this matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs' otherworldly play has covered some cracks in Detroit's offense of late, and with that in mind, it seems that home-field advantage is doing a lot of work for the Lions to be favored in this spot.
Jared Goff and the Lions offense has been dominant in two of the last three weeks, taking advantage of soft matchups versus the Giants and Commanders, with a horrid performance versus the Eagles sandwiched in between.
While a home matchup in the dome versus the Packers may not look as bad as Goff playing outdoors against the Eagles, it is still a spot where some of the Lions' recent offensive concerns could prove more significant.
The Lions' offensive line looks concerning for the time being, with four of the five regulars currently listed as questionable, including Graham Glasgow, who missed Monday's walkthrough.
Gibbs has broken off explosive plays at an elite rate this season, but the Packers have limited explosive plays on the ground effectively and rank 12th in DVOA overall against the rush, which is still a slight underperformance of what was expected entering the year.
The Packers should be able to generate significant pressure on Goff, and the Lions offense will likely be extremely reliant upon Gibbs to have another excellent showing.
The Packers' passing game has been more stagnant since Tucker Kraft's injury, but on paper they still appear to offer enough weapons to allow Jordan Love to find success against a Lions side that just allowed 366 passing yards to Jameis Winston and the Giants. Love ranks first in EPA per dropback this season and sixth in yards per attempt.
In the time since these teams met in Week 1 — a game the Packers won 27-13 — the Lions defense has taken steps forward and ranks closer to the Packers than expected.
Still, I'm a little higher on Green Bay's chances of limiting what is looking to be a somewhat one-dimensional offense than I am of the Lions' defense hanging in versus a highly efficient Packers passing attack.
Pick: Packers +2.5 (-105; bet to -110)
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Packers vs Lions Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
While they eventually stood firm in overtime, it’s hard to feel good about a Lions defense that just allowed 27 points to the Giants, especially considering those Giants were without their top wide receiver, running back, and quarterback.
Now that Detroit defense faces a flawed, but overall much better offense in the Packers.
Green Bay put up 27 points against the Lions in Week 1, and that was an outdoor game at Lambeau Field. While the general trends suggest that there’s typically less scoring in divisional rematches, moving from Lambeau to Ford Field more than negates that, given the turf and climate-controlled environment of the Lions’ home stadium.
Plus, the Lions defense is now missing two of their four starters in the defensive secondary, with a third officially questionable. With the Packers offense fairly healthy at this point in the season, that’s another boost to Green Bay.
On the other side, the Lions offense has dealt with injuries but still managed to be productive, averaging 29.6 points per game, the second-best mark in the league. They’ve scored no fewer than 24 points in any game played indoors this season. They’ve also been much more aggressive since Dan Campbell took over playcalling duties in Week 10.
Their increased passing rate since then should speed up the game, which also boosts overall scoring. I like this one to go over the 48.5 total, which is even money at ESPN Bet.
I’ll also be sprinkling on it to be the highest scoring Thanksgiving game at +275 via FanDuel.
Pick: Over 48.5 (+100)
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Chiefs vs Cowboys Spread Prediction
By Nick Martin
The Cowboys can score with anyone and their defense has looked more competent of late. Meanwhile, we have seen a ton of closely contested Chiefs games over the previous two seasons. Those arguments certainly work in favor of backing the Cowboys +3 here at home.
While they have had some blowout victories this season, the Chiefs' 23-20 victory over the Colts last week has to be viewed as their most impressive performance of the season; the Chiefs generated 494 yards to the Colts' 255.
Kansas City's offense has lacked explosiveness this season (5.6% explosive play rate) but ranks top five in success rate and third in EPA/play.
Considering how solid Steve Spagnuolo's defense has been of late, including last week versus a Colts offense that had carved up the majority of opponents this season, and the efficiency of the Chiefs offense, it looks extremely unlikely that the Cowboys will ever win this game by a noteworthy margin barring significant disparity in terms of turnovers.
The Cowboys offense ranks fourth in EPA/play this season though, and Dak Prescott has taken advantage of another elite receiving option in George Pickens.
The Chiefs do not present as an ideal opponent for Prescott and the Cowboys given that they have allowed the 11th-fewest passing yards against this season and play a lot of two-high coverages. Still, a respectable offensive day from Dallas could keep this game somewhat close with its defense looking more impressive of late and the Chiefs' inability to create explosive plays with a more methodical offensive style.
Backing the Chiefs to cover -3.5 would be my preferred option in terms of betting a side, and I do like the chances they find a way to earn a crucial win to keep their playoff hopes in good standing.
However, I see more value in taking a shot backing the Chiefs to win by 1-6 at +260, hoping the Cowboys can hang around in this one.
Pick: Chiefs to win by 1-6 +250 (Bet365, Play to +250)
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Bengals vs Ravens Spread Prediction
By Nick Martin
While the Bengals have almost no chance of making the playoffs following a fourth consecutive loss last week, they will surely be up for this Thanksgiving Day matchup versus a divisional opponent, not to mention Joe Burrow is set to return from a nine-game absence.
Estimating the level of play that Burrow will offer in this matchup adds an extreme level of volatility, as he has struggled initially when returning from layoffs in the past.
Though the Ravens have won five straight, their depleted defensive unit still looks a little iffy entering this matchup, and it's not exactly ideal that they were outgained by the Jets last week.
Over the last five weeks, the Ravens defense has faced Tyrod Taylor, Dillon Gabriel/Shedeur Sanders, J.J. McCarthy, Tua Tagavailoa and Caleb Williams. Not exactly a murderer's row, which is why many analysts felt the Ravens could come back and win the division when they were 1-5. Their defense still ranks 16th in DVOA dating back to the start of the five-game winning streak.
Over the last four weeks, the Ravens rank just 18th in yards per game. Lamar Jackson has looked far less mobile while dealing with what is likely still a lingering hamstring issue, and he has been sacked at a much greater rate then we have typically seen, and is now also dealing with a toe issue.
Jackson's compromised mobility may not prove to be overly significant in a spot versus a Bengals defensive line that has generated pressure just 30.2% of the time this season, and a defense that, as a whole, is arguably the worst in the NFL.
A key factor in determining whether the Ravens are able to cover a touchdown spread will likely be whether they are able to clean things up in the red zone. The Ravens rank 30th in red-zone efficiency this season, which is partially due to Jackson's absence, but also due to lesser effectiveness from Jackson overall, with Derrick Henry operating as the only consistent red-zone threat.
While I'm still a believer that the Ravens find a way to win a soft AFC North, their five-game winning streak hasn't been entirely convincing considering their opponents and overall process.
The under is 14-10 in Thursday night games this season, a trend which will hopefully be conducive to the Bengals hanging around as heavy underdogs.
I'm not thrilled to bet on Burrow in his first game back, or the Bengals' horrific defense, but he is 19-11 ATS as an underdog in his career, and this looks like a livable spot to fade a Ravens team that has looked more concerning than their recent record suggests.
Pick: Bengals +7 (-110; bet -115)
Click here to return to the table of contents.
