Koerner’s Week 17 NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings: Best SU & ATS Picks for Your Pool

Koerner’s Week 17 NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings: Best SU & ATS Picks for Your Pool article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Patriots mascot

  • Sean Koerner unveils his NFL Pick 'Em Confidence Ratings for Week 17, featuring ratings for ATS and straight up picks for your pools.

Whether you’re playing pick’em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick ’em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.

Let’s quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 17 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.

NFL Week 17 Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings Methodology

These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.

To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the “true” odds are for every matchup.

In theory, sportsbooks’ lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).

Now let’s start with my straight-up ratings for Week 17 then wrap it up with ATS.

Go To: Full SU Ratings | Custom ATS Ratings

Straight-Up Confidence Ratings

1. Patriots

Matchup: vs. MIA
Confidence Rating: 91.8%

2. Ravens

Matchup: vs. PIT
Confidence Rating: 88.8%

3. Cowboys

Matchup: vs. WAS
Confidence Rating: 86.1%

4. Chiefs

Matchup: vs. LAC
Confidence Rating: 84.1%

5. Saints

Matchup: @ CAR
Confidence Rating: 83.1%

6. Bills

Matchup: vs. NYJ
Confidence Rating: 77%

T-7. Vikings

Matchup: vs. CHI
Confidence Rating: 74.3%

T-7. Packers

Matchup: @ DET
Confidence Rating: 74.3%

T-7. Rams

Matchup: vs. ARI
Confidence Rating: 74.3%

10. Broncos

Matchup: vs. OAK
Confidence Rating: 66.8%

11. Colts

Matchup: @ JAX
Confidence Rating: 62%

12. Texans

Matchup: vs. TEN
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

T-13. Eagles

Matchup: @ NYG
Confidence Rating: 56.9%

T-13. Browns

Matchup: @ CIN
Confidence Rating: 56.9%

15. 49ers

Matchup: @ SEA
Confidence Rating: 55.2%

16. Buccaneers

Matchup: vs. ATL
Confidence Rating: 51.7%

17. Falcons

Matchup: @ TB
Confidence Rating: 48.3%

18. Seahawks

Matchup: vs. SF
Confidence Rating: 44.8%

T-19. Giants

Matchup: vs. PHI
Confidence Rating: 43.1%

T-19. Bengals

Matchup: vs. CLE
Confidence Rating: 43.1%

21. Titans

Matchup: @ HOU
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

22. Jaguars

Matchup: vs. IND
Confidence Rating: 38%

23. Raiders

Matchup: @ DEN
Confidence Rating: 33.2%

T-24. Bears

Matchup: @ MIN
Confidence Rating: 25.7%

T-24. Lions

Matchup: vs. GB
Confidence Rating: 25.7%

T-24. Cardinals

Matchup: @ LAR
Confidence Rating: 25.7%

27. Jets

Matchup: @ BUF
Confidence Rating: 23%

28. Panthers

Matchup: vs. NO
Confidence Rating: 16.9%

29. Chargers

Matchup: @ KC
Confidence Rating: 15.9%

30. Redskins

Matchup: @ DAL
Confidence Rating: 13.9%

31. Steelers

Matchup: @ BAL
Confidence Rating: 11.2%

32. Dolphins

Matchup: @ NE
Confidence Rating: 8.2%

Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings

Against the Spread Confidence Ratings

I’ve outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Wednesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.

1. Ravens

Spread: 2
Opponent: vs. PIT

T-2. Texans

Spread: 3.5
Opponent: vs. TEN

T-2. Seahawks

Spread: 3.5
Opponent: vs. SF

T-4. Giants

Spread: 4.5
Opponent: vs. PHI

T-4. Cardinals

Spread: 5.5
Opponent: @ LAR

6. Patriots

Spread: -16
Opponent: vs. MIA

T-7. Vikings

Spread: -1.5
Opponent: vs. CHI

T-7. Broncos

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: vs. OAK

T-7. Bengals

Spread: 2.5
Opponent: vs. CLE

T-7. Jaguars

Spread: 4
Opponent: vs. IND

T-7. Jets

Spread: 1.5
Opponent: @ BUF

12. Redskins

Spread: 11.5
Opponent: @ DAL

T-13. Saints

Spread: -13
Opponent: @ CAR

T-13. Chargers

Spread: 9
Opponent: @ KC

T-15. Packers

Spread: -12.5
Opponent: @ DET

T-15. Buccaneers

Spread: -1.5
Opponent: vs. ATL

T-15. Falcons

Spread: 1.5
Opponent: @ TB

T-15. Lions

Spread: 12.5
Opponent: vs. GB

T-19. Chiefs

Spread: -9
Opponent: vs. LAC

T-19. Panthers

Spread: 13
Opponent: vs. NO

21. Cowboys

Spread: -11.5
Opponent: vs. WAS

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott

T-22. Bills

Spread: -1.5
Opponent: vs. NYJ

T-22. Colts

Spread: -4
Opponent: @ JAX

T-22. Browns

Spread: -2.5
Opponent: @ CIN

T-22. Raiders

Spread: 3.5
Opponent: @ DEN

T-22. Bears

Spread: 1.5
Opponent: @ MIN

27. Dolphins

Spread: 16
Opponent: @ NE

T-28. Rams

Spread: -5.5
Opponent: vs. ARI

T-28. Eagles

Spread: -4.5
Opponent: @ NYG

T-30. 49ers

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ SEA

T-30. Titans

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ HOU

32. Steelers

Spread: -2
Opponent: @ BAL

Custom Confidence Ratings

Your league might be using different odds, in which case, you’ll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.

Note that you’ll want to make sure to add the “-” in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column L.

Here’s an example of what the sheet looks like:

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