For NFL Week 18, I'm on my two favorite sides for Bengals vs Browns and Packers vs Vikings.
These games carry no weight in the NFL playoff race, but I feel strongly about them nonetheless. I also drop some tidbits on three additional games, including the NFC South battle between the Panthers and Buccaneers.
Let's get into my NFL Week 18 picks and predictions for Sunday, January 4
NFL Week 18 Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Browns vs. Bengals
I played this at -7 (-115) earlier in the week, but would still bet it at -7.5.
This has blowout written all over it, as I just don't think the Browns' lackluster offense can keep up with the Bengals, especially since star rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr. is unlikely to suit up. Without Fannin (and David Njoku), this Browns offense goes from dreadful to miserable.
Even with Fannin, Shedeur Sanders ranks 45th out of 46 quarterbacks (min. 100 snaps) in Adjusted EPA per play — ahead of only Brady Cook. In comparison, Burrow ranks fifth in that department.
Sanders takes way too many killer sacks and will now face a significantly improved Bengals defense that has made legitimate strides since Week 10 under first-year coordinator Al Golden. Over the first nine weeks of the season, the Bengals had one of the worst statistical defenses of all-time.
- Weeks 1-9: 32nd EPA per Play; 32nd Success Rate; 32nd Drop Back Success Rate; 31st Rush Success Rate
- Weeks 10-17: 18th EPA per Play; 14th Success Rate; 23rd Drop Back Success Rate; 2nd Rush Success Rate
And it's not like they've only played the dregs of the league over this recent surge with games against the Patriots, Bills, Ravens (2x), Cardinals, and Dolphins. Those are some legitimately good rushing attacks in particular that they've shut down.
So, what has changed besides Golden getting a better handle on his personnel in his first year in the Queen City? Well, he's changed some things schematically up front, which has led to some better production from the likes of T.J. Slaton Jr. and Myles Murphy.
Additionally, Cincy's rookie linebackers have improved significantly. It's still not a great unit, but they were unplayable over the first half of the season. Most importantly, the Bengals' corner group has taken a major step forward since Jalen Davis stepped into the slot in Week 12.
Not only has Davis performed at a high level since entering the lineup, he also enabled Dax Hill to move to the outside, where he has thrived. Combine that with DJ Turner's (who might be the most underrated CB in the league at the moment) lockdown ability on the other side and Golden now has a ton of flexibility to do different things with this defense and dedicate more resources to slowing down rushing attacks.
It's not an elite defense by any stretch, but it's no longer a bottom of the barrel unit, which is all the Bengals need to pair with their elite offense. Plus, we know the Browns defense just doesn't perform at the same level away from home. It's one of the primary reasons they have consistently burned bettors' money in road games over the past three seasons.
Since 2023, Cleveland owns a league-worst 6-18 ATS (25%) mark in true road games, failing to cover over six points per game on average. Conversely, they have been one of the most profitable teams to back at home over that stretch at 16-10 ATS (62%).
I could also see the Browns coming out a bit flat after last week's emotional win over the Steelers in what played out as their season's Super Bowl. I think the Bengals build an early lead, forcing the Browns to play from behind, which they are incapable of doing.
Cincy by 10-plus.
Packers vs. Vikings
This is a J.J. McCarthy (who started to play better prior to his injury) vs. Clayton Tune game. That could spell disaster for the Packers, who will be resting starters with the No. 7 seed already locked up in the NFC playoffs.
After all of the injuries they have already dealt with, I don't blame head coach Matt LaFleur for punting this game, especially after Christian Watson got hurt in Week 18 last season. Don't expect to see anybody with any sort of value that has any sort of ailment to suit up in addition to some healthy veteran scratches.
I just can't see a world where Tune does much of anything against this Brian Flores defense that is rolling at the moment.
Over the past four weeks, the Vikings defense ranks No. 1 in EPA per Play, holding their four opponents to an average of 12.25 points per game. Good luck to Mr. Tune and a host of other backups in a game I doubt the staff will spend much time game planning for with all of their attention likely focused on next week's wild card game.
There's a real chance the Vikings defense could out-score the Packers offense. Even without turnovers or defensive scores, I do believe this Vikings offense (even with some OL injuries) can do enough to win this game by multiple scores against a Packers defense that will not be at full strength and has been trending in the wrong direction over the past month-plus.
Since Week 11, Green Bay ranks 26th in both Defensive Success Rate and EPA per Play. That was when they lost Devonte Wyatt and the loss of Micah Parsons since has been absolutely devastating to that defensive front. The impact of his absence can't be overstated.
Bottom line: this is one motivated team at home, closer to full strength, trying to close out the season with a winning record against an opponent that will treat this like a scrimmage with all eyes on next week's wild card matchup and the primary objective being staying as healthy as possible.
This one could get ugly fast.
Quick Hitters
- I bet the Bucs (-2.5) on Saturday against the Panthers in a game that may or may not determine the sad NFC South race. I've been screaming that the Bucs have been a fraud for two months after their lucky start to the season, but I believe this is the bottom of the market on Tampa following an 0-8 ATS streak. The Bucs closed as a three-point favorite AT CAROLINA just two weeks ago and are now laying a cheaper price at home. Yes, they lost that coin flip game and had a poor result vs. Miami, but it's not like Carolina looked good last week with Bryce Young throwing for 54 yards on 24 attempts. Plus, this Carolina offense has not been trustworthy on the road. Yes, the Bucs have some injuries on defense and along the offensive line, but this is a Panthers defense that is allergic to generating pressure. I'm buying low on the lowly Bucs.
- I think the Falcons are worth a look at home against a Saints team that has benefited from an extremely easy schedule of late. Yes, Tyler Shough has looked pretty good since taking over under center, but New Orleans has beat the following four teams during its four-game winning streak: Bucs, Panthers, Jets, and Titans. Not exactly a murderer's row of opposing stop units. And now Shough won't have Chris Olave (blood clots) on the outside. That leaves a bare bones wide receiver that should struggle to get separation against this very underrated Atlanta defense that can also generate pressure, which has caused Shough all kinds of issues in his young career.
- I just can't get to this number with the Chiefs laying six points on the road with Chris Oladokun under center. I get that the tanking Raiders have shut down some key players, but I could see the same happening for the Chiefs, who aren't really motivated to win this game either. Plus, there's a chance Vegas already has the No. 1 overall pick locked up prior to this game kicking off. Points should come at a premium in this one (hence the total of 36.5 indoors), so I'll take the ugly home dog.
