NFL Week 2 Main Slate Player Props: How to Bet Aaron Rodgers, Jimmy Garoppolo, Mo Alie-Cox, More (Sunday, Sept. 20)

NFL Week 2 Main Slate Player Props: How to Bet Aaron Rodgers, Jimmy Garoppolo, Mo Alie-Cox, More (Sunday, Sept. 20) article feature image
Credit:

Hannah Foslien/Getty Images. Pictured: Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

  • The NFL's main Week 2 slate kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
  • With most games taking place today, Matt LaMarca breaks down the best prop bets heading into the day.
  • Check out LaMarca's picks, featuring Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Garoppolo.

NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.

This is where the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool comes in handy.

We leverage prop bets from across the industry against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past five seasons. Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 representing the largest betting edge.

Let’s break down five prop bets providing value for Sunday’s NFL Week 2 main slate:

Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers

The Pick: Over 1.5 passing TDs (-157)

FantasyLabs Grade: 10 out of 10

Rodgers dialed up a vintage performance in Week 1 vs. the Vikings. He completed 32 of 44 passes for 364 yards with four touchdowns, resulting in an adjusted yards per attempt of 10.09. Rodgers is coming off one of the worst seasons in his career in 2019, so that was definitely a welcome sight.

He will have the opportunity to build on that success this week vs. the Lions. Their secondary has been decimated by injuries to start the season, and they will be down two of their top three cornerbacks in this matchup. Jeff Okudah, the No. 3 overall pick, is on track to play after sitting out Week 1, but he’s still just one man. Ultimately, Rodgers should be able to pick this secondary apart.

Rodgers has also historically thrived at home, averaging 2.14 passing TDs per game in Green Bay over the past four seasons.

[Bet Rodgers at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

New York Jets TE Chris Herndon

The Picks: Under 4.5 catches (-152) & Under 45.5 receiving yards (-112)

FantasyLabs Grade: 10 out of 10

Both of these props have the highest possible grade using the prop tool. Herndon does have the opportunity to take on a larger role in the passing game following the injuries to Jamison Crowder and Le’Veon Bell, but this still seems like a lot to ask vs. the 49ers. They ranked second in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA in 2019, and they also finished second in DVOA vs. the TE position.

Sam Darnold is expected to struggle in this contest — his over/under is set at just 217.5 passing yards — so Herndon would have to grab a large portion of the Jets’ passing production in order to hit these overs.

[Bet Herndon at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo

The Pick: Over 215.5 passing yards (-112)

FantasyLabs Grade: 9 out of 10

Garoppolo is down a few of his top targets in this contest, but he should still have no problem picking apart the Jets secondary. They have one of the least intimidating defenses in the league, particularly after trading away Jamal Adams during the offseason. They allowed Josh Allen to do whatever he wanted in Week 1, and Allen finished with 312 yards on 33-46 passing.

The injury to George Kittle definitely hurts — he’s one of the best TEs in the league — but it’s far from a death sentence for Garoppolo. He averaged 338.5 passing yards in two games without Kittle last season, and he logged at least 253 passing yards in each of those contests.

[Bet Garoppolo at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

Indianapolis Colts TE Mo Alie-Cox

The Pick: Under 3.5 receptions (-143)

FantasyLabs Grade: 9 out of 10

Alie-Cox is another TE who is expected to see a bump in production this week. The Colts typical starting TE Jack Doyle has been ruled out with an ankle injury, and Trey Burton is still on injured reserve. That really leaves Cox as the lone healthy body at the position.

That said, banking on him to grab at least four catches seems like a stretch. He’s never had a game with more than two catches, and he’s recorded one catch or fewer in 17 of 20 career games. Cox should play more snaps in this contest, but that doesn’t guarantee a large increase in opportunities.

This matchup vs. the Vikings could also work against Alie-Cox. They were shredded by Rodgers last week, so Rivers should have more opportunities to get his receivers involved. The Vikings were also the best team in the league last season in terms of DVOA vs. the tight end position, thanks in no small part to Harrison Smith. He earned a 91.4 coverage grade according to Pro Football Focus, and QBs racked up a passer rating of just 35.7% when targeting Smith in coverage.

[Bet Alie-Cox at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

Los Angeles Chargers WR Mike Williams

The Pick: Over 39.5 receiving yards (-155)

FantasyLabs Grade: 10 out of 10

Williams looks like a prime buy-low target after Week 1. He caught just four of nine targets, and he should have better weeks moving forward if he continues to see that many opportunities.

That said, Williams still managed 69 receiving yards in that contest, which would be more than enough to hit the over on his current yardage prop. If he can hit the over in a game where he “struggled”, what’s going to happen when he goes off?

This line is simply way too low, especially given the Chargers’ matchup vs. the Chiefs. Kansas City is going to put up points, so the Chargers will have no choice but to air the ball out a bit more this week.

[Bet Williams at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

How would you rate this article?