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NFL Week 3 Player Props: Pick for Tua Tagovailoa in Bills vs Dolphins

NFL Week 3 Player Props: Pick for Tua Tagovailoa in Bills vs Dolphins article feature image
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Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa.

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NFL plays of the day and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Tua Tagovailoa Player Props

Prop Tagovailoa To Throw Interceptions — Yes (-120)
Matchup Bills vs. Dolphins
Time 1 p.m. ET
Best Book BetMGM

Coming into the season, the big question in Miami is how quarterback Tua Tagovailoa would fare in his third season. With a 2-0 start, including an unbelievable fourth-quarter comeback last week in Baltimore, things are looking up.

However, the rise of Tagovailoa’s star might be presenting us with some value on his interceptions prop.

The Dolphins quarterback threw two interceptions last week after a clean Week 1. In each game, he recorded two turnover worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus. The small sample has him roughly at the same rate (4.4%) as last season (4.8%) when he led qualified quarterbacks. In 2021, Tagovailoa threw an interception in eight of his 11 full games.

And so far, Miami’s new offensive system under head coach Mike McDaniel has put more emphasis on the passing game. The Dolphins’ pass play percentage of 62% in Week 1 and 74% in Week 2 both exceed the 60% average of last season. While last game’s percentage was indicative of game script, we might see a similar scenario on Sunday.

The Bills not only come in as 5.5-point favorites against Miami, but their playmaking defense has continued to take the ball away at a high rate. Already at five interceptions this year, the Bills are primed to follow up on their 19-interception regular season in 2021 (tied for third most).

I expect the Bills to bring the pressure on Tagovailoa, which should lead to some errant throws. I’m loving this prop for Sunday, and I would bet it up to -135.

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