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Baker Mayfield Trade to Panthers: Effects on Carolina Win Total, Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, More

Baker Mayfield Trade to Panthers: Effects on Carolina Win Total, Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, More article feature image
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Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Baker Mayfield

  • Baker Mayfield has a new home with the Carolina Panthers.
  • The former No. 1 overall pick was traded for a conditional 2024 fifth-round pick on Wednesday.
  • Check out updated projections for the Panthers' 2022-23 win total and fantasy footbal reactions.

The Carolina Panthers got a bit of a boost in the futures market Wednesday after landing quarterback Baker Mayfield in a trade with the Cleveland Browns.

Carolina’s down from +15000 to +12500 to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM following the addition of the former No. 1 overall pick. PointsBet moved the Panthers to +10000 down from +12500.

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Mayfield spent four seasons with the Browns. Both he and the franchise were looking for a trade partner, with Deshaun Watson the new face of the offense in Cleveland.

Mayfield’s coming off a tough 2021 season. He recorded career lows in completions, passing yards, touchdowns and QBR across 14 starts while playing through injury.

Cleveland went 5-9 against the spread over that span, including a dismal 2-6 stretch in the back half of the campaign with Mayfield under center.

The trade, at minimum, adds another layer of intrigue for Week 1: The Panthers and Browns clash in Carolina, meaning Mayfield — if he wins the starting job — gets a whack at his former club right out the gates.

Cleveland’s anywhere from a -1.5 to -4 favorite in Week 1, so bettors may want to do some shopping. The total, meanwhile, is painted 42.5 across the board.

The Panthers +12500 price tag at MGM is currently the best price in the Super Bowl market; they’re as low as +6700.

Bettors with the flexibility to shop on Carolina’s regular-season win total over/under will also want to do their due diligence: We’re seeing the number fluctuate anywhere from 5.5 to 7.5.

The Browns still have questions at quarterback as Watson’s status in 2022 is unknown as the league investigates multiple accusations of sexual assault against the quarterback.

With Mayfield gone and Watson’s uncertain status, the Browns moved from +2500 to +2800 to win the Super Bowl at PointsBet.

Updated Panthers Win Projection

With Sam Darnold as the Panthers’ quarterback in 2022-23, our Sean Koerner projected them for 5.52 wins.

The addition of Mayfield is worth more than one whole win and increases that projection to 6.62 victories. According to Sean’s projections, there’s a 44% chance that the Panthers end with either six or seven wins this season.

Fantasy Football Implications

Samantha Previte: It makes sense that the Browns moved Mayfield, considering he wasn’t going to play another snap for them, but getting only a 2024 conditional fifth-round pick in return for the former No. 1 overall pick is pretty ludicrous. Plus, they’re picking up $10.5 million of his salary.

I consider this to be a near zero-risk move for the Panthers, whose QB situation has been shaky at best since Cam Newton’s good years in the mid 2010s.

Mayfield has the potential to be a relatively low-cost QB2 in two-quarterback and superflex formats. His presence should help the pass catchers, namely D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey.

This move significantly lessens the chances that 2022 third-round pick Matt Corral sees any playing time in Year 1 which will hurt his stock for dynasty and keeper purposes.

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