The Bears host the Buccaneers tonight on NFL Sunday Night Football. Kickoff from Soldier Field in Chicago, Ill., is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Sunday Night Football will broadcast on NBC.
The Bears are 6.5-point favorites over the Buccaneers on the spread (Bears -6.5), with an over/under of 47.5. The Bears are -270 favorites on the moneyline and the Buccaneers are +220 underdogs.
Continue below for our Buccaneers vs Bears picks for Sunday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, over/under, and props.
Buccaneers vs Bears Picks, Props
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Buccaneers vs Bears Odds
- Buccaneers vs Bears Spread: Buccaneers +6.5, Bears -6.5
- Buccaneers vs Bears Total: 47.5
- Buccaneers vs Bears Spread: Buccaneers +220, Bears -270
For the latest from sportsbooks nationwide, check out VegasInsider's NFL Week 9 Odds & Action Report.
Buccaneers vs Bears Spread Prediction
In recent years, teams in the NFC South have struggled to cover the number when playing outside the division. I expect this trend to continue tonight in Chicago when the Bears take on one of the league's hottest teams in the Buccaneers.
Are we certain Baker Mayfield is back to full health? He has completed seven passes across two games; he completed no passes in last week's win over the Falcons.
The Buccaneers' thriving rushing attack has shielded Mayfield to this point, but against a Bears offense that is going to put points up on the scoreboard, this will be his first real test.
Mayfield's performance this season even before the thumb injury was not impressive. When looking at adjusted net yards per attempt, a metric that weighs sacks, touchdowns and interceptions, in addition to pure yards per pass attempt, Mayfield is at 4.7 adjusted net YPA — that is behind the likes of Cam Ward and Malik Willis.
The Buccaneers defense has been playing well, especially against the run. Seattle's defense was also an elite unit against the run, yet the Bears operated at a high level against them this past Monday despite rushing for fewer than four yards per carry.
More importantly, Ben Johnson has proven he can handle blitz-heavy defenses — like the one Todd Bowles will throw at him. Johnson’s offenses generate just under .1 EPA per play in his 27 games with Bears.
That number triples in efficiency against the blitz. Bowles uses blitz schemes at the second-highest rate out of all defensive coordinators in his 99 games as a playcaller or head coach.
I will happily back Johnson as the Bears should win with margin. The Bucs offense will be much less efficient when they are not frontrunning. Play Chicago up to -6.5.
Pick: Bears -6 (to -6.5)
Buccaneers vs Bears Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
While there were admittedly some extenuating circumstances in terms of game script, weather, and a depleted wide receiver room, Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers' passing attack have completed just seven passes for 64 yards over the last two weeks combined. Mayfield was 0-for-3 passing in Tampa Bay's 16-0 win over Atlanta.
The Buccaneers have the league’s No. 1 defense by DVOA at this point in the season, with top-five marks against both the run and the pass. They’ll look to control the ball and clock for as long as possible tonight, while trying to hide turnover-prone Mayfield against an aggressive Bears defense that ranks top 10 in both takeaways and sacks per game.
The Bears aren’t a great defense by the numbers, but with the addition of Jeffery Simmons, they’re better than their season-long stats imply, particularly against the run. With Tampa likely to be somewhat reliant on the ground game, that sets up for what should be a fairly low-scoring contest.
The total has already dropped a point from 48.5 to 47.5, but I’m still on the under.
Pick: Under 47.5 (-105)
Bucky Irving Player Props
The Bucs are coming off two incredibly low-volume passing games. That almost has to tick up, particularly against a high-powered Bears offense — but this price seems like an overreaction.
Bucky Irving is still going to split the passing downs with Kenneth Gainwell. Irving only has five more targets than Gainwell this season.
The Bears have allowed the 12th-fewest receptions and the 10th-fewest targets to running backs.
Pick: Bucky Irving Under 2.5 Receptions (+120)
Caleb Williams Player Props
By Derek Carty
There may be some value on the pass completions prop for Caleb Williams.
THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 18.89 completions, and the oddsmakers are implying 21.28. The model believes there is a 72% chance he records fewer than 21.5 completions.
If you can get the under at -130 or better, there is some great value here. This play is good down to at least -164.
Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Caleb Williams Under 21.5 Pass Completions (-130)
Colston Loveland Player Props
Loveland had a very slow start to the season, but he is doing everything we hoped for since Caleb Williams returned from injury.
Loveland has three straight games with 6+ receptions and 65+ yards. Over that span, he's been targeted 28 times and is playing around 90% of the snaps.
Loveland is on the field nearly every down with Cole Kmet out. Loveland's target share has doubled from 14% to 29%, and his yards per route run (YPRR) has tripled from 0.7 to 2.1.
Lastly, Loveland has 6+ catches in five of his last six full games with a healthy Williams.
Pick: Colston Loveland Over 5.5 Receptions (+122)
