The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) host the rival Carolina Panthers (8-8) in a crucial Week 18 NFC South game on Saturday, January 3. Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., is set for 4:30 p.m. ET. Panthers vs Buccaneers will broadcast on ESPN and ABC.
The Buccaneers are 3-point favorites over the Panthers on the spread (Buccaneers -3; +100); the game total is over/under 43.5 points. The Buccaneers are -148 favorites on the moneyline while the Panthers are +124 underdogs.
Below, you can find six Panthers vs Buccaneers picks, which include predictions for the spread, Panthers team total, two anytime touchdown scorer props and more.
Panthers vs Buccaneers Picks & Predictions
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Panthers vs Buccaneers Odds
- Panthers vs Buccaneers Moneyline: Panthers +124, Buccaneers -148
- Panthers vs Buccaneers Spread: Panthers +3, Buccaneers -3
- Panthers vs Buccaneers Total: 43.5
NFL odds via DraftKings
Panthers vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction
The Buccaneers are 5-11 against the spread (ATS) this season and in the midst of a historical losing streak both in the win/loss column and against the number.
Tampa Bay hasn’t covered the spread since Week 8, which is probably why 67% of all betting tickets are on the road today. However, Tampa Bay is still the team with the highest ceiling in the NFC South.
In their 23-20 loss to the Panthers just a couple of weeks ago, the Bucs outgained the Panthers and were on the wrong end of penalty variance. Furthermore, Tampa Bay was more efficient on third downs in that game and Baker Mayfield’s legs paid dividends as the Bucs rushed for more than 150 yards.
Tampa Bay should win the line of scrimmage — the Panthers rank 25th in adjusted line yards and 28th in yards per carry allowed to opposing running backs. The Bucs defense ranks second in the NFL in adjusted line yards per rush, which means more responsibility will fall on the shoulders of Bryce Young in this game to deliver if they are going to come out victorious.
Despite a losing effort against the Dolphins, there were some positive takeaways offensively when it comes to the Mayfield and Chris Godwin connection. Both had their best statistical games of the season in terms of yardage, and it may have brought some confidence back to a passing attack where it was badly needed.
I trust Mayfield more than Young in this game and I am willing to lay the number with the home team because of it.
Pick: Buccaneers -3 (-110)
Panthers vs Buccaneers Team Total Pick
By Nick Giffen
In the first meeting between these teams Carolina put up 23 points, but that was a bit fluky as our Expected Scores metric had the Panthers scoring just 19 points — and that was a home game for them.
Now the Panthers are on the road and there's familiarity baked into this second game, especially in quick succession. Our schedule-adjusted Expected Scores would give the Panthers 20 points on the dot at a neutral site, but in Tampa, with the playoffs on the line, you'd expect some home-field advantage to help out here.
Another hidden factor is a fully healthy Tampa Bay offense.
Since the return of Mike Evans, the Bucs are averaging more than 31.5 minutes of possession, including 33:21 over their last two, including a 34:36 time of possession against Carolina two weeks ago. The Bucs' all-play success rate has been 49.8% compared to 44.3% prior to his return.
Success keeps the ball moving and keeps the opposing team off the field.
I think the home crowd shows up and the Bucs offense methodically moves the ball against a susceptible Panthers run defense.
With a fully healthy Bucs passing attack, and referee Brad Allen falling into some of his long-term tendencies — of his crew calling more penalties against the away team than the home team — the Panthers stay under 20.5 points.
Pick: Panthers Team Total Under 20.5 (-120)
Panthers vs Buccaneers Anytime Touchdown Pick
Mike Evans has been hit or miss recently, but he's always a massive red-zone threat, and the odds here are too high.
The Panthers have had a tough time against WR1s this season, ranking near the bottom of the league in DVOA, and they have been below average versus the pass.
Evans has scored in each of the last two games and has been a TD monster his entire career. He played 75% of snaps last week, and with the Bucs needing to win this game to have any chance at the playoffs, he should be in line for all he can handle.
I have the true odds around +130.
Pick: Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+165)
Panthers vs Buccaneers Player Props: Jalen Coker
By Sam Farley
I’m all over Jalen Coker for today's big NFC South game.
His receiving yards line stands at 32.5 yards; he’s covered that number in three of his past four contests and has averaged 34.7 yards per game on the season.
Coker's a constant threat for the Panthers and ranks second in receiving yards on the team despite missing the first six games of the season. When the Panthers beat the Bucs two weeks ago, he had five targets, which was his second highest total this season. Coker also averaged 15.7 yards per catch as he torched their secondary.
Expect another big performance here.
Pick: Jalen Coker Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Panthers vs Buccaneers Player Props
By Sam Farley
Looking for a value anytime touchdown selection sees us trawling the Panthers' depth chart for their best tight end option.
The Buccaneers have given up 11 touchdowns to tight ends over 16 games, tied for the second most in the NFL. This would have been Ja’Tavion Sanders, but he’s been on IR since his Week 16 injury.
Last week in their first game without Sanders we saw Mitchell Evans out-target Tommy Tremble two to one, and with both having the same amount of red-zone targets this season (four) it feels like a pick’em. I'm siding with Evans though on the basis of him getting more targets last week.
Pick: Mitchell Evans Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+650)
Buccaneers Futures Pick
I don't trust either of these teams much. The Bucs have won one of their last seven games, and the Panthers' -67 point differential would be the worst ever by a playoff team.
I'm not playing a side here, but I'd lean Bucs if forced to play. Even playing hurt, I still trust Baker Mayfield more than Bryce Young, and I'll bet on Tampa's veteran postseason experience.
Still, I'm not interested at Bucs -3 at the key number — but what if the Bucs win?
Tampa Bay would still need a Saints win in Atlanta on Sunday to clinch the NFC South and make the postseason, but the Saints have been the best team in the division for half a season already, so the Bucs should like their chances.
At that point the Bucs get a home playoff game against, most likely, the Seahawks or Rams. And that's where I'm ready to pounce.
Seattle and L.A. are my top two power-rated teams in the NFL by a wide margin, and whoever makes the playoffs from the NFC South will be my worst playoff team. I already bet Seattle -6.5 in Tampa Bay on the contingent Lookahead line at FanDuel.
I'd make both the Seahawks and Rams more than a touchdown favorite in Tampa. If the Bucs win and get help from the Saints, I think they get blown out in the playoffs anyway.
I'm betting the Bucs' "stage of elimination" to lose in the Wild Card Round at +500 (DraftKings). That's priced at 17% and I make it around 22%, simply parlaying three teams I like better in their matchup.
If Tampa Bay does survive the weekend, this is suddenly a +500 moneyline ticket on Tampa's opponent next week — juicy!
Pick: Buccaneers Stage of Elimination — Wild Card Round (+500; DraftKings)
