Pat Freiermuth Player Props: Expert Pick for Steelers vs Dolphins

Pat Freiermuth Receptions

It’s been an interesting transition season for the Steelers thus far. The Black and Gold seemed destined for a rebuild, but a surprising win against the Bucs might have temporarily turned the tide.

Rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett left that game with a concussion, and second-year tight end Pat Freiermuth never suited up as he was dealing with a concussion of his own. But with both cleared to play for Sunday Night Football, I’m honing in on Freiermuth’s reception prop.

In the four full games the burly tight end has played, he’s eclipsed this line thrice. And he’s coming off a rookie season in which he caught at least four passes in nine of his last 11 regular season games.

Since Pickett and Freiermuth have only played parts of two games together, there’s not a tangible sample size to use. However, the matchup against Miami reads as a decisive advantage for the Penn State product.

The Dolphins rank 25th in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric against tight ends. In fact, 26% of opponents’ completions have gone to the position, which is the seventh highest mark in the league. Miami also deploys man coverage at a top-five rate, which is typically a boon for tight ends (at the expense of running backs).

With a non-existent rushing attack, and going against a high-powered Dolphin offense, the Steelers figure to find themselves in passing situations throughout the game. I have the Nittany Lion projected for seven targets and close to five catches.