Sunday Night Football for Week 5 features an AFC East rivalry matchup between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. Kickoff from Highmark Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET; the game will broadcast live on NBC.
The Bills are 7.5-point favorites over the Patriots on the spread (Bills -7.5), with the over/under set at 49. The Bills are -450 favorite to win outright on the moneyline and the Patriots are +325 underdogs.
Below, you can find our Patriots vs Bills picks for Sunday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, moneyline, game total and player props.
Patriots vs Bills Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
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  | 8:20 p.m. | |
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| 8:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sunday Night Football Odds
- Patriots vs Bills Moneyline: Patriots +325, Bills -450
- Patriots vs Bills Spread: Patriots +7.5 (-115), Bills -7.5 (-105)
- Patriots vs Bills Total: 49
Patriots vs Bills odds via bet365
Patriots vs Bills Spread Prediction
Road underdogs inside of the division of more than a touchdown have covered the spread at a 58.8% rate since the beginning of 2022. Over that same period, when that underdog has a .500 record or better, they are 10-5 against the spread, covering at a 66.6% rate.
The Patriots match up well with the Bills.
Buffalo is the best rushing offensive team in football, according to DVOA, but that is the strength of the Patriots' defense. The Patriots stuff runs at or behind the line of scrimmage on 30% of carries, which is the highest rate in the NFL. New England is allowing just 3.1 yards per carry to opposing running backs this season.
Of course, Josh Allen and the Bills will find a way to put points up, but Drake Maye and the Pats can keep pace.
The Bills defense is 21st in DVOA, but they have faced only one offense (Ravens) that ranks in the top half of the NFL — and they surrendered 40 points in that game. Maye has thrived on third down this season, boasting the league’s best passer rating and completion percentage when he needs to move the chains.
Furthermore, the Patriots will be able to sustain drives because those third downs will be manageable as the Bills' rush defense ranks 30th in yards per carry allowed. Teams consistently find success on the ground versus Buffalo — nearly a quarter of all rushes against the Bills have gained 10 or more yards.
Buffalo’s defense may rank high in pressure rate, but it is converting just 16% of pressures into sacks, and Maye is mobile enough to make them pay with his legs.
The young Patriots signal-caller will make enough plays to keep the Pats in this game until the very end.
Pick: Patriots +8.5; Bet to +8
Patriots vs Bills Moneyline Pick
They're undefeated, but how impressed am I really supposed to be by the Bills?
The Bills have defeated the Jets, Dolphins and Saints in their last three games — congrats? And Buffalo looked dreadful for 3 1/2 quarters against the Ravens before mounting an epic rally.
The Patriots have presented the toughest test out of all AFC East teams for Josh Allen, who is 7-6 against New England in his career. Those six defeats are the most Allen has suffered against an AFC East opponent, not to mention the last four Pats-Bills games have been of the one-score variety.
There's a lot to like with the Patriots, specifically on offense where they appear to be ahead of schedule thanks to second-year quarterback Drake Maye.
There's also the Stefon Diggs revenge game angle; the former Bills star had his best game of the season against the Panthers, racking up 101 yards on six receptions (seven targets).
The Patriots defense is top 10 against the run but just 28th against the pass — that said, the return of stud CB Christian Gonzalez changes the equation. The Pats also have a special teams advantage and have been crushing it on kick returns.
Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel has covered 64% of his games as an underdog of at least three points; he is 21-20 straight up with a 59% ROI on the moneyline.
When Vrabel's team is at least a six-point underdog, he's still coaching .500 football (7-7), with a 102% ROI on the moneyline.
Pick: Patriots Moneyline (+360)
Patriots vs Bills Over/Under Prediction
By Billy Ward
If the Patriots cover the spread as predicted by John, odds are it will likely be in a high-scoring game.
While the Patriots defense is solid, the Bills have topped 30 points in every game this season and I don’t see the Pats as the team to break that trend – unless the Patriots offense is unable to get anything going, and the Bills can rest on their laurels.
Obviously, that scenario wouldn’t lead to the Patriots covering their end of the spread. Which means for that spread to happen, New England will need to keep pace offensively.
The Patriots have shown plenty of promising signs this season. As noted by Brandon above, second-year QB Drake Maye taking a big step forward. He’s accounted for nine total touchdowns (two rushing) through four games.
While it’s not fair to compare Maye to Josh Allen at this point in his career, those are Allen-esque numbers. Maye was also comped to Allen coming into the league thanks to his elite size and speed combination for a QB.
The best-case scenario for this game – both for our bets and from an entertainment standpoint – is both QBs putting their teams on their backs and going blow-for-blow for 60 minutes.
Given how this one lines up, it also might be the likeliest. The reason I especially like the over is it could also cover in a dominant Bills win – think something like 33-17 – giving us multiple outs.
Pick: Over 49 (-109)
Patriots vs Bills Player Props: Drake Maye
Through the first four games, Drake Maye has 24 rushing attempts for 96 yards. That puts his average right below this line of 30.5 yards.
However, with the Patriots 8.5-point underdogs on the road, we can expect more dropbacks for Maye.
Since the Bills have a good pass rush, we should expect Maye to be moving around the pocket more than usual. Dating back to last season, he's had at least six rushing attempts in four of his last six games. I think we'll see somewhere in the range of 6-10 rushes for Maye tonight.
Through the first four games, no team has given up more rushing yards to quarterbacks than the Bills. They gave up 70 rushing yards to Lamar Jackson, 70 rushing yards to Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor, 10 rushing yards to Tua Tagovailoa (who never runs),and 49 rushing yards to Spencer Rattler.
Pick: Drake Maye Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Patriots vs Bills Player Props: DeMario Douglas
By Kyle Murray
It looks like we are getting a pretty significant discount on DeMario Douglas after he ran just six routes against the Panthers. I am willing to throw that performance out because the Patriots routed the Panthers and were never really in need of any pass volume.
Sunday Night Football will be a different case though; the Patriots are heavy underdogs against the Bills.
Douglas has at least two receptions in 2-of-4 games this season, and both of those games were Patriots losses.
Douglas has run 66 routes in the two games the Patriots lost and 18 routes in the two games they won. This is a pretty clear split that tells us when the Patriots are trailing, they find themselves in more 3-WR sets.
The Patriots should have plenty of chances to be in 3-WR sets in this matchup. I will gladly take this bet at pretty significant plus money.
Pick: DeMario Douglas Over 1.5 Receptions (+175)
