Patriots vs. Eagles Odds & Picks: Do You Dare Fade New England Off a Loss?

Patriots vs. Eagles Odds & Picks: Do You Dare Fade New England Off a Loss? article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady

  • Our experts analyze Sunday's matchup featuring the New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles, complete with odds and picks.

Patriots at Eagles Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Patriots -3.5
  • Over/Under: 45
  • Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.

Everyone loves a bounce-back spot, right? That’s doubly true when you’re talking about the Patriots. So it’s no surprise to see 80% of the betting tickets landing on New England at the time of writing (you can find live betting data here), making the Pats the most popular bet of Week 11.

They’re facing an Eagles team that’s also coming off a bye and one that has failed to meet expectations with a 5-4 record. With that said, Philly is still very much alive in the NFC East, so it will be plenty motivated to secure a home upset.

Our analysts detail the matchups, metrics and picks to know before placing your bets.

Patriots-Eagles Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Patriots

Both teams are coming off a bye, but during the bye week, the Eagles placed wide receiver DeSean Jackson (abdomen) on injured reserve. To make matters worse, WR Alshon Jeffery (ankle) hasn’t practiced this week, suggesting that he’s trending toward missing this game.

For once, the Patriots have kept their injury report to a minimum. Everyone on their report was listed as limited, indicating they’re likely trending toward playing, especially since they’re coming off a bye week. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Patriots secondary vs. Eagles wide receivers

The Eagles sorely miss Jackson, who would gave their offense some much-needed explosiveness. And more importantly, just the threat of Jackson would open up so much underneath for other receivers and tight ends who are now getting more attention with defenses not too worried about the wideouts on the outside — and rightfully so.

Jeffery looks as if he’s lost a step, and he might not even play on Sunday. That could leave a starting wide receiver trio of Mack Hollins (who hasn’t caught a ball in eons), Nelson Agholor and the recently signed Jordan Matthews. Yikes.

As I’ve said all season, for my money, the Patriots have the best secondary in the NFL. Led by lockdown CB Stephon Gilmore, they have three-plus corners who are capable of locking down receivers in man coverage on the outside and an outstanding group of safeties.

fantasy defense rankings-week 6-2019
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Stephon Gilmore, Jason McCourty

You may even see Gilmore match up on Eagles TE Zach Ertz if safety Devin McCourty doesn’t. Bill Belichick should have full confidence in his secondary to lock down on the outside and bring immense pressure with plenty of Cover 0 (no safety over the top).

Unlike their last game against Baltimore, they don’t have to be concerned about Lamar Jackson escaping the pocket and can blitz as normal.

Don’t expect many explosive plays from the Eagles through the air on Sunday: New England has allowed a league-low 17 pass plays of more than 20 yards on the season, and Philly’s offense only has 27 such plays this season, which is tied with the Broncos for 23rd in the NFL. Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Patriots -3.5
  • Projected Total: 45.5

This is the most fascinating line of Week 11. I knew this game would likely open at -3.5, and as I always say, a 3.5-point line is one of the easiest to gauge sharp action on. Despite 80% of the tickets coming in on the Patriots, the line hasn’t budged. It’s very likely due to the Eagles being backed heavily by the sharps. Books that don’t welcome sharp action have moved this line up to Patriots -4.

We saw the blueprint to beat the Patriots in their Week 9 loss to the Ravens. No, I’m not talking about Carson Wentz using his rushing ability the same way Jackson can — we all know that isn’t possible. I’m talking about how the Ravens utilized 3-TEs to attack the Patriots’ pass defense. It seemed like a smart way to avoid the shutdown coverage from their secondary and top Gilmore. We could see the Eagles use a similar approach with their two stud TEs, Ertz and Dallas Goedert.

Take the points with the home dog. Sean Koerner

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fantasy-football-standard-rankings-te-week 3-2019
Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Zach Ertz

Expert Picks

Stuckey: Under 44.5

Piggybacking off of my analysis above, I think the Eagles have figured out they need to be a rush-first offense that controls the clock and keeps opposing offenses off the field, especially ones with competent quarterbacks who can exploit their vulnerable secondary. (Philly has been one of the slowest teams in the NFL from a pace perspective over the past two seasons.)

The Eagles’ rushing offense hasn’t been flashy by any stretch, but they have an excellent offensive line that can run block as well as any unit in the league. Per Pro Football Focus, the Eagles have the highest run-blocking grade in the NFL.

And using that same PFF measure from above, the Patriots’ run defense ranks 24th in the league. The Eagles should generate a push up front and convert on most short-yardage situations on the ground against the weakest part of the Patriots team. That should keep the clock moving. However, even when they put some long drives together, I don’t see them having much success in the red zone.

eagles-bills-betting-odds-pick-preview-nfl-week 8-2019
David Berding-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carson Wentz

Now, when the Patriots have the ball, I know they are always going to be one of the fastest teams in the league from a pace perspective with Tom Brady at the helm but this offense just isn’t right currently. They’ve dealt with an insane amount of turnover at tight end and receiver, which has thrown off the timing of the offense. And injuries along the offensive line and at fullback have slowed the running game down.

Brady will get his, as always, especially against a poor set of Eagles corners but this isn’t as explosive of a Patriots offense as we’re used to seeing. Can it be? Sure and it probably will once it gets the timing down and the offensive line comes together even more, which you can bank on with one of the best O-line coaches in the biz.

But for now, I think the Eagles’ dominant defensive line can completely kill the run game and get pressure on Brady, which is the only way you can really contain him.

I also think the Patriots win this game, which means I think they’ll have a lead in the second half. And while they always play fast in the first half, they tend to slow it way down in the second half with leads.

I don’t see much value in the spread, but the situation just screams Pats. Belichick has obviously been money against the spread off of a bye. No surprise there. And no surprise that Brady has been awesome ATS after a loss. But what might surprise you is how dominant Tom Terrific has been against the number after suffering a rare loss.

As a favorite of a TD or less (or an underdog), Brady is a ridiculous 28-3 ATS in his career. That’s better than 90%, covering by an absolutely absurd average margin of over 10 points per game. Be very afraid of the Patriots off a loss (and bye) with memories of the Super Bowl loss still on their minds (as Brady mentioned on his radio show this week).

As I said, I don’t see much value in the spread, so I can’t bet it pregame out of principle but will be looking for a good live Pats spot if they give up an early score first.

I will, however, be taking a piece of the under pregame but I’m going to wait to see where the market goes as I’d like to have 45 or better if possible.

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