Patriots vs. Jets Odds & NFL Predictions For Week 2: How To Find Betting Value On This Spread
Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Mac Jones.
|Jets Odds||+6 (-110)|
|Patriots Odds||-6 (-110)|
|Moneyline||-255 / +205|
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
The New York Jets’ home opener will feature a familiar foe in the New England Patriots.
The narrative of this game will likely be about the two starting rookie quarterbacks. However, it would be futile to focus on such comparisons since the expectations for the two teams are entirely different.
New York has a projected win total of six games, while New England’s is 9.5. Those numbers alone should give us some idea of the talent disparity on both rosters.
Although both teams lost in Week 1, a closer look at the box scores reveals that one of them probably deserved better. That bit of insight might be enough to get us to the betting window in this matchup.
Mac Jones Shows Promise for Patriots
It’s quite a story when you think about how Mac Jones ended up in New England. Bill Belichick produced a masterclass in metalevel game theory that induced the 49ers organization to trade up to the third pick in the draft.
According to a report by ESPN’s Adam Schefter, a big part of why the 49ers moved up in the draft was because they felt New England was also planning to move up to land Jones. You see, the 49ers wanted to be in the position of being able to choose between either Mac Jones or Trey Lance. And although San Francisco ultimately decided on Lance, Jones was very strongly considered.
This certainly speaks to Jones’ quality, and the fact that the Patriots selected a quarterback who could have gone in the top three further illuminates his value.
Think about it for a second. If Jones won the starting job in New England as a top-three pick, no one would bat an eye.
I always felt it made more sense to focus on what Jones was putting on film instead of his draft position. After all, he had a tremendous preseason that saw him complete 36-of-52 passes for 388 yards and one touchdown. He followed that up by throwing for 281 yards, completing 29-of-39 passes and throwing one touchdown in his NFL regular-season debut against the Dolphins.
It’s not every day that a rookie quarterback steps into the NFL, completes 76.3% of their pass attempts and throws for more yards against the guy he backed up in college (Tua Tagovailoa).
Jones finished Week 1 with a positive Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) of 7.7%. His Expected Points Added (EPA) + CPOE composite of .192 also ranked in the league’s top half.
However, the Patriots were careless with the football, fumbling four times against the Dolphins. That’s very uncharacteristic of a Belichick team, and you’d have to think it’s something they get sorted out during this week’s practice.
The notable injuries for the Patriots include Kyle Van Noy (throat), who’s already ruled out. Trent Brown (calf) and Yodny Cajuste (hamstring) are questionable on the offensive line, as is tight end Jonnu Smith (hip). Linebacker Ronnie Perkins is also questionable with a shoulder injury.
Jets Need To Protect Rookie QB
The Jets drafted Zach Wilson with every intention of a trial-by-fire scenario. In other words, the job was always going to be his, which means he’s going to take his lumps since New York decided against adding a veteran quarterback to its 53-man roster.
Wilson’s backup is the 26-year-old Mike White, who has yet to take a snap in an NFL game. Wilson essentially has carte blanche to make plenty of mistakes without fear of repercussions.
To his credit, the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft did show some positive signs in New York’s 19-14 road loss to Carolina. Wilson threw for two touchdowns and 258 passing yards, but only completed 20-of-37 pass attempts.
Wilson’s CPOE of -11.1% confirms that he erred on quite a few throws as he finished tied for last in the league — with another rookie quarterback in Trevor Lawrence — using that metric. Wilson was also last with a -.035 EPA+CPOE composite after Week 1.
Overall, the Jets offense was poor, with a below-average 36.5% success rate. New York struggled to run the ball and finished 26th with a rush EPA of -0.256. The offensive line has to take some of the blame for a poor rushing attack, as well as its inability to protect its rookie quarterback.
Wilson was sacked six times against Carolina, which was tied for the most in Week 1. He also led all quarterbacks with a 46.5% pressure rate on his dropback passes. The Jets will face an even stiffer task after losing starting left tackle Mekhi Becton for the foreseeable future due to a knee injury.
Defensively, the Jets will also be without safety Lamarcus Joyner, who’s out for the season with a tricep injury. Injuries to linebackers Jamien Sherwood (ankle) and Blake Cashman (hamstring) will likely keep them out for the next two weeks. Joyner and Sherwood both started against Carolina, while Cashman played 28.57% of the snaps.
Last Sunday, I saw this game listed with New England as a 3.5-point favorite. Now, the Patriots are up to a six-point favorite across the board.
While that’s quite a move to be laying six points on the road with a rookie quarterback, I think there are several factors at play here:
- The Jets will be without a key player on their offensive line in Becton.
- New York is also dealing with cluster injuries within their linebacker group.
- The Jets were outgained by almost 130 yards in the box score and lost 19-14 in Week 1.
- The Patriots outgained their opponent by nearly 140 yards and lost 17-16.
Belichick rarely loses outright in Week 1 (14-3 straight up). But in his two earlier losses, he not only bounced back to win in Week 2, but he also won both games by at least 16 points.
However, if you played the Patriots at the current number, you’d be losing a ton of line value. Instead, I’d recommend you use New England as part of a two-team six-point teaser (-110) to bring the line down to a pick ’em. You can pair them with Denver at -6 and play the Broncos down to a pick ’em as well.
Pick: Add Patriots (+6 to pick’em) to two-team, six-point teaser with Broncos at BetMGM