Patriots vs. Redskins Betting Odds & Picks: Dare to Bet Washington?

Patriots at Redskins Betting Odds & Picks

• Patriots Spread: -16.5
• Redskins Spread: +16.5
• Over/Under: 42.5
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

The Patriots are double-digit favorites for the third time this season — and it's only Week 5.

Tom Brady and Co. easily covered the 18-point line against the Dolphins, but fell short of the 21-point spread against the Jets. Can they cover against a winless Redskins team?

Our analysts break down every angle of this game, featuring a staff pick and Sean Koerner's projected odds.

Patriots-Redskins Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Patriots

The Patriots have a rather lengthy injury report, but everyone was limited, so it appears they're all trending toward playing. Listing an abundance of players as limited is par for the course for New England.

The Redskins are in terrible shape with Jordan Reed (concussion), Vernon Davis (concussion) and OL Brandon Scherff (ankle) missing practice this week. Terry McLaurin (hamstring) was ruled out last week, but he's been able to get in limited sessions so far. Case Keenum (foot) also sat out on Wednesday, but returned on Thursday to get in limited work. However, the Redskins have yet to name a starting quarterback for this week. — Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Patriots Pass Defense vs. Redskins Pass Offense

The Redskins are so outclassed in this game that it's almost impossible for me to narrow this mismatch down to any one area, but I'll go with the passing game.

Defensively, the Pats might actually have the best unit of the Bill Belichick era. Normally he spends the first month of the season tinkering with his defense, experimenting with personnel groupings and installing different packages. This season, though, the defense returned almost all of its starters, and it seemingly picked up right where it left off with last year's Super Bowl victory. Through four weeks, the Pats have an NFL-best zero receiving touchdowns allowed and 10 interceptions.

Some of their recent success is undoubtedly due to their easy schedule. But most of it is due to their outstanding defense.

With three capable-at-worst corners in Stephon Gilmore, Jason McCourty and Jonathan Jones, the Pats have been the league’s most shadow-heavy team, as I highlighed in my WR/CB matchups piece. Every week, they have manned their cornerbacks up with opposing receivers.

Perhaps the best corner in the league right now, Gilmore has locked down the No. 1 wide receiver while McCourty has covered the other outside receiver and Jones has held down the slot. Collectively, this trio has allowed a 48.1% catch rate and 37-413-0 receiving line on 77 targets. That's beyond outstanding.

As for the Redskins, they have not been anywhere close to outstanding with their passing offense, and their quarterback situation is now in disarray.

Keenum was benched in Week 4 while rookie Dwayne Haskins threw three interceptions in relief. Longtime backup Colt McCoy (leg) is reportedly now healthy, and although Jay Gruden has remained noncommittal, stating that the team doesn’t have a set plan, it seems that McCoy might actually get the start.

Reed and Davis seem unlikely to play, so whatever the Redskins do in the passing game, it will need to be through their wide receivers and running back Chris Thompson.

Thompson is a special receiving back, but he’s just one guy, and he typically catches shorter targets. And No. 1 wide receiver McLaurin missed last week and is uncertain to play. Even if he suits up, he’ll have a tough time outplaying Gilmore at less than peak physical capacity.

The Redskins are implied for a slate-low 13.75 points (per our FantasyLabs Vegas page). And even that feels high.

For the fifth straight week, the Pats have a real chance to keep opposing receivers out of the end zone. — Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner's Projected Odds

• Projected Spread: Patriots -14.5
• Projected Total: 45.5

Books are getting flooded with Patriots money as 86% of the tickets and 94% of the money have been on their side as of writing (see live public betting data here). There's a real chance this line could end up closer to -17 by kickoff.

When it comes to these massive two-touchdown favorites, the smart play is to typically take the points, but I'm choosing to pass on this line considering the QB situation.

Although I have this total graded more than three points higher than the current line, I'm also considering it a no bet. The Patriots could get out to a comfortable lead then shorten the game with a run-heavy offense in the second half. We also can’t rely on the Redskins putting up enough points against this New England defense, which has been lights out this season.

This is a pass for me. — Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

After the Redskins' poor offensive performance, bettors are looking to fade Washington, especially against New England.

Oddsmakers know recency bias will affect the judgement of casual bettors. What the public last saw impacts how they wager the following week. As such, bookmakers will inflate the lines against teams that had a poor offensive game.

Contrarian gamblers have profited by going against the grain and betting low-scoring teams. This strategy is even more effective if there is lopsided public action. Gamblers following this Pro System have gone 148-94-4 (61%) against the spread since 2003, returning a profit of $4,530 for a $100 bettor.

The Redskins are a match for this system. — John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Picks

Stuckey: Under 42.5

I still don't think the totals market has fully adjusted to the Patriots, who have gone under in all four games (depending on what number you got against the Jets). The market is getting closer, as totals consistently drop each week, but it’s not quite there yet in my opinion.

The Patriots offense put up a lot of points over the first few weeks, but it was healthy and against horrible competition in the Jets, Dolphins and Steelers, who have one combined win.

As I’ve said all season, this Pats team is much more like the early 2000 teams that were led by a dominant defense. This might be the best defense in the NFL and it all starts with their secondary, which allows them to do so much from a scheme perspective up front. It's also one of the reasons they rank second in adjusted sack rate.

And the offense is just not the same explosive unit as years past. They suffered numerous impactful injuries along the offensive line and to fullback James Develin. They released Antonio Brown, and two of their best current receivers are banged up (Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman). Tight end has also been a disaster, although getting Ben Watson back will help. Regardless, this offense is just not as great as many seem to think and the Bills defense took advantage last week in Orchard Park.

Matt thoroughly covered the mismatch between the three elite New England corners and subpar Washington wideouts, but don't forget about the rock solid Patriots safety group. I'm just not sure how this pathetic Washington passing attack will get anything through the air. And when you realize the Skins also can’t run the ball, it could be a long day for an offense that just put up three points against a terrible Giants defense. (Washington and Cincinnati are the only teams averaging fewer than 3.0 yards per carry.)

Washington's best player right now might be punter Tress Way, who’s averaging 48.5 net yards per punt to lead the NFL. And an elite punter will always be an under bettor’s best friend. When the Skins do punt, which should be early and often, he will at least punt it deep, which at worst will make the Pats have to eat up more yards and clock on their drives.

The Patriots also have a solid punter in Jake Bailey, who can make life even more difficult on Washington. It’s also worth noting that New England's kicking situation is up in the air after Stephen Gostkowski hit IR.

I almost broke my rule of thumb of betting double-digit road favorites in the NFL here by playing the Patriots. but it would go against everything I stand for.

You might hear this week that road favs of 14 or more points are 6-1 ATS since 2003. As you might've guessed, the Patriots are responsible for four of those seven games and have gone 3-1 ATS over that span. However, that’s a super small sample size and likely more random than anything else. If you focus only on double-digit road favorites since 2003, they've gone just 36-47 (43.4%) ATS, and that includes two non-covers by the lowly Dolphins at home this season.

It’s just very difficult to cover that large of a number in the NFL, especially on the road. That said, I can’t play the Redskins here. Without flukes, I don’t know how they score more than 10, but I feel more comfortable with the under here.

I played this at 43.5. It’s important to note that 43 is such a key number in the totals market post-new 2-point conversion rule, but I’d still play this at 42 or better.