Oddsmakers are not expecting a very competitive matchup when the New England Patriots take on the Washington Redskins at FedExField on Sunday.
New England is currently -15.5 against Washington, making the Pats one of the largest road favorites ever tracked by our Bet Labs software.
While road teams expected to win by more than two touchdowns are rare, the Patriots easily covered an 18-point spread against the Dolphins in Miami in Week 2.
As you can imagine, the public is all over New England this week, as 86% of all spread bets are laying the points. But should savvy bettors be eyeing this point spread? Or is the value actually with the total, which has plummeted from 47 to 43 since opening?
The Action Network's betting tools and data, including Pro Systems, market analysis and NFL power ratings, provide clarity regarding how bettors should approach Patriots vs. Redskins.
Patriots vs. Redskins Betting Odds & Predictions
Two NFL Pro Systems, including Bet Against Public After Bad Game, are already pointing toward the Redskins as the valuable side of this matchup.
Bet Against Public After Bad Game Pro System
There aren't many NFL betting systems this simple, but with such an explosive against-the-spread (ATS) win rate.
Teams that scored fewer than 10 points in their previous game and are receiving less than 30% of bets are 148-94-4 (61.2%) ATS since 2003.
This makes plenty of real-world sense as teams that bettors are fading hard due to a poor offensive performance will be extremely undervalued by the market, allow savvy contrarians to buyback these underdogs at even better odds than their "true" value.
Oddsmakers know that the majority of bettors are going to take New England at any number and will likely respond by shading lines.
PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.
NFL Power Ratings
The Action Network's NFL power ratings, powered by Sean Koerner, confirm that this is exactly what is happening.
Koerner makes the line Redskins +14.5, meaning this number has leaked past its true value due to such lopsided betting activity. Therefore, Washington +15.5 does represent a valuable wagering opportunity.
Sharp Action
Professional bettors agree with Koerner's assessment.
At first glance, it appears that smart money is taking New England, as evidenced by the line move from -13 to -15.5. However, the Pats are attracting such drastic one-sided action — 86% of bets and a whopping 94% of the money — that oddsmakers have had no choice but to adjust in that direction.
On the other hand, Sports Insights' Bet Signals have triggered three smart money indicators on the Redskins, including two at +15.5. This tells us that as of Wednesday morning, there is wiseguy resistance at that number.
