Week 5 NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Rankings: Best ATS & Straight-Up Picks

Week 5 NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Rankings: Best ATS & Straight-Up Picks article feature image

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins

  • We've created Confidence Ratings to help you make your Pick 'Em Pool selections -- both straight-up picks and against-the-spread (ATS) pools.
  • The ratings are based on Sean Koerner's proprietary NFL model.
  • We've also put a spreadsheet at the very bottom where you can input the odds for your pick 'em pool to get custom ATS confidence ratings.

Whether you’re playing pick’em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick ’em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.

Let’s quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 5 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.

Odds as of Tuesday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings Methodology

These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.

To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the “true” odds are for every matchup.

In theory, sportsbooks’ lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).

Now let’s start with my straight-up ratings for Week 5 then wrap it up with ATS.

Go To: Full SU Ratings | Custom ATS Ratings

Straight-Up Confidence Ratings

1. Patriots

Matchup: Redskins
Confidence Rating: 89.6%

2. Eagles

Matchup: Jets
Confidence Rating: 88%

3. Chiefs

Matchup: Colts
Confidence Rating: 80.8%

4. Chargers

Matchup: Broncos
Confidence Rating: 72.9%

5. Bears

Matchup: Raiders
Confidence Rating: 66.8%

6. Titans

Matchup: Bills
Confidence Rating: 65.2%

T-7. 49ers

Matchup: Browns
Confidence Rating: 63.6%

T-7. Saints

Matchup: Buccaneers
Confidence Rating: 63.6%

T-7. Texans

Matchup: Falcons
Confidence Rating: 63.6%

T-7. Vikings

Matchup: Giants
Confidence Rating: 63.6%

T-11. Bengals

Matchup: Cardinals
Confidence Rating: 62%

T-11. Cowboys

Matchup: Packers
Confidence Rating: 62%

T-11. Panthers

Matchup: Jaguars
Confidence Rating: 62%

14. Ravens

Matchup: Steelers
Confidence Rating: 58.6%

T-15. Rams

Matchup: Seahawks
Confidence Rating: 50%

T-15. Seahawks

Matchup: Rams
Confidence Rating: 50%

17. Steelers

Matchup: Ravens
Confidence Rating: 41.4%

T-18. Cardinals

Matchup: Bengals
Confidence Rating: 38%

T-18. Jaguars

Matchup: Panthers
Confidence Rating: 38%

T-18. Packers

Matchup: Cowboys
Confidence Rating: 38%

T-21. Browns

Matchup: 49ers
Confidence Rating: 36.4%

nfl-picks-straight-up-week 3-2019
Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baker Mayfield

T-21. Buccaneers

Matchup: Saints
Confidence Rating: 36.4%

T-21. Falcons

Matchup: Texans
Confidence Rating: 36.4%

T-21. Giants

Matchup: Vikings
Confidence Rating: 36.4%

25. Bills

Matchup: Titans
Confidence Rating: 34.8%

26. Raiders

Matchup: Bears
Confidence Rating: 33.2%

27. Broncos

Matchup: Chargers
Confidence Rating: 27.1%

28. Colts

Matchup: Chiefs
Confidence Rating: 19.2%

29. Jets

Matchup: Eagles
Confidence Rating: 12%

30. Redskins

Matchup: Patriots
Confidence Rating: 10.4%

Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings

Against the Spread Confidence Ratings

I’ve outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Tuesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.

T-1. Titans

Spread: -3
Opponent: Bills

T-1. Giants

Spread: +5.5
Opponent: Vikings

T-1. Rams

Spread: +1.5
Opponent: Seahawks

T-4. Redskins

Spread: +15.5
Opponent: Patriots

T-4. Steelers

Spread: +3.5
Opponent: Ravens

T-4. Falcons

Spread: +5
Opponent: Texans

T-4. Colts

Spread: +11
Opponent: Chiefs

T-4. Saints

Spread: -3
Opponent: Buccaneers

T-9. Chargers

Spread: -6.5
Opponent: Chargers

T-9. Bengals

Spread: -3
Opponent: Cardinals

T-9. 49ers

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: Browns

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jimmy Garoppolo

T-12. Panthers

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: Jaguars

T-12. Eagles

Spread: -13.5
Opponent: Jets

T-12. Bears

Spread: -5
Opponent: Raiders

T-12. Cowboys

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: Packers

T-12. Packers

Spread: +3.5
Opponent: Cowboys

T-12. Jets

Spread: +13.5
Opponent: Eagles

T-12. Raiders

Spread: +5
Opponent: Bears

T-12. Jaguars

Spread: +3.5
Opponent: Panthers

T-20. Browns

Spread: +3.5
Opponent: 49ers

T-20. Cardinals

Spread: +3
Opponent: Bengals

T-20. Broncos

Spread: +6.5
Opponent: Chargers

T-23. Buccaneers

Spread: +3
Opponent: Saints

T-23. Chiefs

Spread: -11
Opponent: Colts

T-23. Texans

Spread: -5
Opponent: Falcons

T-23. Ravens

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: Steelers

T-23. Patriots

Spread: -15.5
Opponent: Redskins

T-28. Seahawks

Spread: -1.5
Opponent: Rams

T-28. Vikings

Spread: -5.5
Opponent: Giants

T-28. Bills

Spread: +3
Opponent: Titans

Custom Confidence Ratings

Your league might be using different odds, in which case, you’ll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.

Note that you’ll want to make sure to add the “-” in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column M.

Here’s an example of what the sheet looks like:

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