I went 3-2 last week and am now 27-11 for the season, so let's keep rolling! I've compiled a list of player prop picks for NFL Week 12.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 12, including picks for Jets vs Ravens, Colts vs Chiefs and Jaguars vs Cardinals.
NFL Player Props — Week 12
- QB Tyrod Taylor Pass Attempts Ladder (DraftKings;bet365)
- WR Josh Downs Over 4.5 1st Qtr Receiving Yards (-112, DraftKings)
- RB Michael Carter Over 1.5 Receptions (-120 at bet365)
Jets vs Ravens Player Prop: Tyrod Taylor Pass Attempt Ladder
- Over 31.5 Pass Att (-111 at DraftKings 1u)
- 35+ Pass Att (+180 at bet365 0.25u)
- 40+ Pass Att (+610 at DraftKings 0.1u)
- 45+ Pass Att (+1600 at bet365 0.1u)
Taylor has averaged 33.9 pass attempts per 100% of snaps played, and there's room for optimism for more here against the Ravens.
The three games that Taylor played came against three teams (BUF, TB, CAR) that rank inside the top 10 in time of possession per game. Well, the Ravens average just 28:55 minutes with the ball in QB Lamar Jackson's seven starts, which would rank them 24th right behind … the Jets!
Further, in Jackson's seven starts, opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game against the Ravens.
The most likely scenario here is Baltimore leading in the second half, which would speed the pace up relative to league average by 0.25 seconds per play, but if that lead jumps to a touchdown or more, that pace vs. league average jumps to 1.75 seconds per play faster based on these two teams' paces this year in this scenario.
Additionally, on Taylor's drives this year, the Jets' passing rate over expectation (PROE) is +6.7% compared to -12.3% on Justin Fields drives, and since that's adjusted to expectation where expectation is a heavy trailing script, we could see Taylor rip off a ton of attempts Joe Flacco style.
I'm laddering 35+, 40+ and even 45+ at 16-1.
Pick: Joe Flacco Over 38.5 Pass Attempts (-110 at BetMGM, HardRock, -118 at DK)
Colts vs Chiefs Player Prop: Josh Downs 1st Quarter Receiving Yards
The Colts have chosen to receive the kickoff 100% of the time they have won the coin toss, while the Chiefs have deferred 100% of the time. As a result, barring some coaching decision oddities, the Colts are almost guaranteed to start with the ball.
That's been the case in nine of 10 Colts games this year, including eight of the nine games Downs has played.
Downs has cleared 4.5 1st quarter receiving yards in eight of nine games as well, only failing to do so in the most recent game against the Falcons, which may be lowering this line more than it should be.
Downs has more than 55% of his total receiving yards on the season in the 1st quarter, and his full game line is 33.5, so clearly there's value here if we just applied that direct ratio. Yes, the Colts are expected to trail here more than they have all season, but five yards is just under 15% of his full game line.
Also, the matchup is solid as the Chiefs allow the most targets per route run (TPRR) to slot receivers in the NFL, and allow the fifth-highest catch rate on targets to the slot.
Rather than facing outside corners, Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, Downs will get Christian Roland-Wallace, who allows the most TPRR of KC's top three corners.
I love this line at 4.5, and I am totally fine if you only have FanDuel's 5.5 line available to you.
Downs has 10+ 1st Qtr receiving yards in seven of nine games, so a ladder here of 10+ is viable as well.
Pick: Josh Downs Over 4.5 1st Qtr Receiving Yards (-112)
Jaguars vs Cardinals Player Prop: Michael Carter Receptions
Emari Demercado is out, but even without his absence, Carter returned to his role of 30-40% routes run (and actually put up almost 50%) that he had in Weeks 5-7 for the Cardinals.
We can conservatively pencil Carter in for around 35% of routes, which would be about 14 routes on QB Jacoby Brissett's projected 39.5-40 dropbacks.
Carter has been targeted on 20% of his routes run with Brissett at QB, but that should probably increase here against the Jaguars, who allow the eighth-most targets per game to the position.
If we project Carter for around 0.225 targets per route, that's closer to 3.15 targets, which, at a 70% catch rate, would equate to around 2.2 projected receptions.
Notably, Carter has cleared 1.5 receptions in all four games he's run at least 30% of routes, including 3-of-3 with Brissett at QB.
I have him more like 64% to clear 1.5 receptions, and I'm probably being a bit conservative with Carter's projected routes run rate.
I'm going to 1.5 units on this play, but will also put .25 units on 3+ receptions as well.
Pick: Michael Carter Over 1.5 Receptions (-120; bet365)
Dr Nick's Week 11 Prop Bets
- QB Tyrod Taylor Pass Attempts Ladder (DraftKings, bet365)
- WR Josh Downs Over 4.5 1st Qtr Receiving Yards (-112, DraftKings)
- RB Michael Carter Over 1.5 Receptions (-120 at bet365)
