With the NFL season in full swing, I have a couple of player props for NFL Week 3.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 3, including picks for Jets vs. Buccaneers, Bengals vs. Vikings, Falcons vs. Panthers and Saints vs. Seahawks.
NFL Player Props — Week 3
- QB Tyrod Taylor Over 27.5 Pass Attempts (-110, Caesars)
- RB Chase Brown Under 2.5 Receptions (-107, DraftKings)
- TE Ja'Tavion Sanders Under 2.5 Receptions (+125, bet365)
- WR Rashid Shaheed Under 4.5 Receptions & 15+ Receiving Yards (-119, FanDuel)
Jets vs Buccaneers Player Prop: Tyrod Taylor Pass Attempts
Compared to Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor is going to scramble much less and he will likely take fewer sacks over the long run. Taylor should have a higher pass attempt rate per dropback.
The Jets should also just be more willing to throw the ball more with Taylor in general, with fewer designed runs in the game script for the quarterback position.
Play volume should also be higher — Tampa Bay is one of the faster-paced teams in the league, ranked eighth in seconds between snaps through the first two weeks.
More of the Jets passing means more clock stoppages and quicker drives.
The Jets ran 54.5 plays per game in their first two games of the season. I'm conservatively projecting closer to 59 plays in this spot, but long term, this will likely be in the low 60s.
The Buccaneers are great at stopping the run, allowing the fifth-fewest yards per game on the ground and the fifth-lowest yards per carry. You need to throw the ball against them in order to have success.
My conservative projection for Taylor's pass attempts is 29.5. But this is very dependent on the game script, and the Jets are the unluckier team in this Luck Rankings game, meaning more likely to cover the 6.5-point spread.
As a result, don't play this at 29.5, but 28.5 is fine.
However, it's still quite possible to hit both bets (Jets ATS, Taylor Over Pass Attempts) as long as the Jets aren't leading by a touchdown or more for most of the game.
Also I'm going to ladder 30+ and 35+ for sprinkles, since our BWHL model has 35 ([) projected. Make sure to line shop for the ladder bets though.
Pick: Tyrod Taylor Over 27.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
Bengals vs Vikings Player Prop: Chase Brown Receptions
Jake Browning at QB is not good for Chase Brown in this market; the Bengals' backup QB throws to his RBs just 15.3% of the time compared to an NFL average in the mid-17% range.
Browning had the sixth-lowest check-down rate among QBs with 200+ pass attempts back in 2023 when he filled in for an injured Burrow.
Browning also scrambles at a higher rate than Burrow, and has been sacked at a higher rate as well which lowers the chances he even attempts a pass on any given dropback.
Despite playing with the lead a lot since the start of last year, the Vikings are below average in target share allowed to RBs. And with this game featuring a 2.5-3-point spread, there's a solid chance Cincy is holding the lead for a chunk of this game, which would lower pass rate expectation.
I'm projecting Brown for 2.35 receptions with a 58% chance to stay under 2.5.
Pick: Chase Brown Under 2.5 Receptions (-107)
Falcons vs Panthers Player Prop: Ja'Tavion Sanders Receptions
Both last year and this year so far, Sanders' target share and targets per route run fall off a cliff when he faces single-high coverage as opposed to two-high coverage:
- 12.3% vs. 5.3% target share and 0.21 to 0.09 TPRR last year (two vs. single)
- 16.3% vs. 9.8% target share and 0.22 vs 0.14 TPRR this year (two vs. single)
The targets are also longer, with an average depth of 9.8 (single) to 8.1 (two) this year and 6.6 vs 5.8 last year, meaning catch rates will be lower on those targets.
I say all this because the Falcons have played single-high coverage at the third-highest rate this year, after the Panthers faced the Cardianls and Jaguars, who are both bottom-10 in single-high rates.
The Panthers are hopefully more competitive in this game as they've played 142 of 146 offensive snaps while trailing, leading to 90 Bryce Young pass attempts through two games. Young should be handing it off more frequently this weekend.
Through two weeks, Atlanta has conceded the fewest targets to TEs (6) while allowing just one catch.
I'm projecting 2.45 with a 55.5% chance of staying under, making +125 solid value.
Pick: Ja'Tavion Sanders Under 2.5 Receptions (+125)
Saints vs Seahawks Player Props: Rashid Shaheed
Seattle has played two-high safety looks at the second-highest rate this year, which limits Rashid Shaheed’s production.
He’s seen just an 11.1% target share on 0.14 targets per route run against two-high looks, compared to 25.7% and 0.24 TPRR versus single-high, while his first-read rate also dips by 10%.
On top of that, the Seahawks lead the league in pressure rate, and Shaheed has just one target on 26 routes when Spencer Rattler is pressured.
Even so, Shaheed remains the Saints’ best deep threat with the highest aDOT on the team. That makes his alt receiving yards line appealing — he should clear 15 yards with just one or two catches.
Under 3.5 receptions isn’t showing enough value, but under 4.5 at -188 (FD) is playable, with the yardage serving as a solid sweetener.
Parlay Pick: Rashid Shaheed Under 4.5 Receptions & 15+ Receiving Yards
