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PropBetGuy’s NFL Player Prop Pick: How to Bet Raheem Mostert vs. Patriots (Sunday, September 11)

PropBetGuy’s NFL Player Prop Pick: How to Bet Raheem Mostert vs. Patriots (Sunday, September 11) article feature image
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Via Eric Espada/Getty Images. Pictured: Raheem Mostert.

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Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards

Prop Raheem Mostert Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Matchup Patriots vs. Dolphins
Time 1 p.m. ET
Best Book FanDuel

When the Dolphins hired former-49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel as head coach, the offseason plan for the offense was very evident: add speed. While the trade for Tyreek Hill and signing of Chase Edmonds garnered headlines, the Dolphins did act quickly to sign Raheem Mostert.

Formerly of the 49ers, Mostert is well-versed in McDaniel’s zone-run scheme. The veteran averaged a whopping 5.7 yards per carry on 284 totes across five injury-plagued seasons with the 49ers in the Kyle Shanahan era (of which McDaniel served as an assistant).

Yes, the Dolphins gave Edmonds more money in free agency, and he’s likely to receive the bulk of the running back touches. However, it’s notable McDaniel and the coaching staff did go out of the way to list both backs as starters on the depth chart. With Edmonds likely to receive the pass-catching work, Mostert figures to mix in heavily on the ground.

Last season the Patriots allowed 4.6 yards per carry (26th in the NFL). Bill Belichick is notorious for looking to take away the opposing offense’s primary option, which likely means protection on the back end in an effort to slow down Hill and fellow speedster, Jaylen Waddle. This should leave Mostert and Edmonds with some nice run lanes.

With McDaniel at offensive coordinator last year, the 49ers averaged 23 rush attempts per game. I see that as a conservative projection for Sunday, given the Patriots’ vulnerability against the run. I have Mostert seeing at least 10 of those carries and turning that into close to 50 yards.

Pick: Raheem Mostert (MIA) Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-113) | Play to Over 39.5

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