Raiders vs. Chargers Monday Night Football Prop Bet: Take The Over On This Surprising L.A. Receiver

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player prop for every slate and primetime game throughout the 2021 NFL season. He has a 400-299-4 (57%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.

Raiders–Chargers Prop Bet

Jalen Guyton Over 18.5 Receiving Yards

Tonight's Monday Night Football game should be a shootout and involves two of the top three teams in average pass yards per game. This provides a sneaky "buy low" opportunity on Jalen Guyton.

Guyton should be running a route on approximately 70% of Justin Herbert's drop backs tonight. Given his very low target rate (8.2%), it's clear he's Herbert's fifth option in the passing game. However, it's likely that figure regresses toward 10-11% going forward, and I'm projecting him to get right around three targets in tonight's game.Whenever Guyton sees a target, it's typically due to the defense overcommitting to Keenan Allen/Mike Williams, making Guyton wide open with room to run after the catch.

According to Next Gen Stats, Guyton led the league with a 5.7 average separation on his five targets in Week 1. Additionally, it resulted in 8.3 expected yards after the catch on his three receptions. I would translate this as follows: When Guyton does see a target, it's typically because he is wide open and he should be able to convert it into a big gain. I'm projecting Guyton closer 23.5 yards tonight and feel — due to his recent two-game stretch (2/13/0 and 0/0/0) — the market is providing us a little bit of value here. I would bet this up to 21.5.

Pick: Jalen Guyton Over 18.5 Rec Yards (-115) at FanDuel