Rovell’s Betting Market Roundup: $2 Million Lions-Dolphins Parlay Cashes

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Sam Greenwood/Getty Images. Pictured: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Sunday Update: The biggest bet this NFL Sunday is a $2 million, two-team moneyline parlay that would pay $2.1 million on … the Detroit Lions and the Miami Dolphins?

That’s the bet that came into DraftKings this week, and it cashed with relative ease. Miami smashed the Jets 24-0, and Detroit led the entire game against the Jaguars in a 34-16 win.

The 1-3 Lions were a 2.5-point favorite against the Jags with the parlay bettor getting -159 on the moneyline.

The 2-3 Miami Dolphins were 8.5-point favorites over the New York Jets with the bettor getting -385 on the moneyline.

It’s one of the biggest parlays we’ve ever seen and certainly the biggest on a team like the Dolphins, who haven’t been this big a favorite since 2016.

Since 2018, the Lions are 10-25-1, while the Dolphins are 14-23.


Thursday Update: As the week rolls on, sharp bettors usually take a bunch of NFL unders, grabbing the value that is normally extracted from the public rooting for points (and betting overs).

But this week was a bit different when a group of sharps rolled into the Superbook in Vegas on Thursday and pounded nearly every under, which resulted in the totals each coming down a half point, according to the Superbook’s Eric Osterman.

Overs were 29-19 (60.4%) for the first four weeks as scoring rose across the league, but totals went 7-7 in Week 5. Average points are still up, so there was some market correction.

NFL teams are scoring an average of 25.7 points per game, more than two clear of the previous high for a single season in the modern era (2013).

The totals (shown here at close) have steadily climbed up as a result after a dip from Week 1.

Week Average Total
Week 1 50.4
Week 2 46.2
Week 3 47.8
Week 4 49.4
Week 5 49.7
Week 6 50.3*

*Average as of 6 p.m. ET on Thursday

Osterman said that this week is no different — that they will need every under by game time and for the more public books, you can see how lopsided things still are.

FanDuel has six games where more than 80% of the money is on the over — Washington/Giants (83%), Packers/Bucs (85%), Cleveland/Pittsburgh (89%), Bears/Panthers (89%) Cardinals/Cowboys (91%) and Ravens/Eagles (96%).

William Hill bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich said the book is going to need the under in Chiefs-Bills, the highest total of the season at 57, for “a big number” with the over getting 88% of the money so far.

Elsewhere, there is big money on the Green Bay Packers, the only NFL team to go undefeated against the spread this year, against the Tampa Bay Bucs, who have been overplayed thanks to Tom Brady (2-3 ATS). Osterman said the line is moving down from Bucs -2 to pick ‘em because sharps are on the Packers.

Other games liked by sharps, Osterman says, are the Texans (+3.5) over the Titans, the Browns (+3.5) over the Steelers, the 49ers (+3.5) over the Rams and the Cowboys (+1.5) over the Cardinals.

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