The San Francisco 49ers (12-5) and Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) meet in the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs today. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pa. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Eagles are 6-point favorites on the spread (Eagles -6; -105), with the over/under set at 44.5 (-105o /-115u). The Eagles are -265 favorites to win on the moneyline, while the 49ers are +215 underdogs.
Let's get into my 49ers vs Eagles prediction.
49ers vs Eagles Prediction, Pick
- 49ers vs Eagles pick: Eagles -4.5
My 49ers vs Eagles best bet is on Philadelphia to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
49ers vs Eagles Odds
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -115 | 44.5 -105o / -115u | +215 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -105 | 44.5 -105o / -115u | -265 |
49ers vs Eagles Preview
The Eagles were 5-2 at home this season, but failed to reach 20 points scored in their two losses. That will not be the case against a 49ers defense that may be the weakest in the entire NFL playoff field.
San Francisco will lose the line of scrimmage in this game. Its front seven allows 4.7 adjusted line yards per rush, ranking 28th in the league. The 49ers' 4.5 yards per carry allowed to running backs ranks 22nd, and they have been fortunate to play a slate of statuesque quarterbacks.
Jaxson Dart was the only quarterback with a rushing ability near the level of Jalen Hurts that the 49ers faced over the past three months, and Dart managed to average seven yards per rush on eight attempts while adding a touchdown on the ground.
Eagles offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo undoubtedly looked to limit the total number of rushing attempts for Hurts this season; the OC only called 3.3 designed runs for his quarterback per game.
That was the lowest of Hurts’ career thus far, but I am expecting that number to increase significantly in a playoff environment. Even the fact that Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni conceded the No. 2 seed by resting his players in Week 18 shows that this is a team that was holding back for its eventual playoff run.
In total, this 49ers defense finished with the 4th-worst defensive success rate (54%), largely due to their lack of pass rush. When Hurts is called upon to throw the football in this game, he is going to be very comfortable.
The 49ers' 4.8% adjusted sack rate was the lowest in the NFL this season. Their defense finished 30th in pressure rate (30%), and over their final 12 games, only two defenses allowed a higher completion percentage.
If the 49ers are going to hang around in this game, Brock Purdy is going to have to play a flawless game. As impressive as Christian McCaffrey’s statistics are on the surface, his 3.9 yards per carry was the lowest of his career in any season he had at least 150 carries. The rushing attack will be inefficient against an Eagles defense peaking at the right time.
Purdy has looked razor sharp in several games since his return from injury, but context must be added to some of those performances. Purdy torched the Titans, Cardinals, Colts and Bears — all of those defenses struggled badly down the stretch to defend the pass. In the only three games Purdy was tested — against the Panthers, Seahawks and Browns — his performance told an entirely different story.
Purdy had two touchdown passes and four interceptions in those three contests, and he averaged an abysmal 5.5 yards per attempt. He's attempted just six total deep throws as he had difficulty finding the time to scan the field, and even when he was afforded those opportunities, his receivers failed to separate. Purdy’s passer rating was 68.8 versus the three defenses resembling the challenge he is going to face today.
The Eagles defense has Jalen Carter back in the lineup, and he seems to be rounding into form with a sack in each of the last two games he has played. Since Week 7, the Philly defense has allowed just 1.5 points per drive (2nd-best) and 4.7 yards per play (6th-best).
Purdy is going to face a challenge similar to the one he was tasked with a week ago when this Niners offense mustered just three points scored.
Seattle and Philly had a virtually identical adjusted sack rate during the regular season. The Eagles allowed the lowest completion percentage of any pass defense this season while ranking 5th in yards per attempt allowed.
49ers vs Eagles Prediction, Spread Betting Analysis
At the time of writing this breakdown, 65%-75% of all betting tickets are on the underdog 49ers, yet this line opened with the Eagles as 3.5-point favorites, and now oddsmakers have moved this number through a fairly key number of 4 to 4.5.
Sportsbooks are clearly taking a stand here, continuing to bait the casual bettor to take the points with the perceived better offensive team.
The Eagles will open up the offensive playbook while their defense plays at a Super Bowl level. I expect them to win with margin on Sunday afternoon.
Pick: Eagles -4.5
49ers vs Eagles Spread Prediction
I'm backing the Eagles to cover the spread.
Moneyline
I have no bet for either moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no pick for the game total.
49ers vs Eagles Betting Trends
49ers vs Eagles Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Lincoln Financial Field |
| Date: | Sunday, Jan. 11 |
| Time: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | FOX |
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