Seahawks-Cardinals Betting Preview: Is Josh Rosen a Good Bet in First Start?

Seahawks-Cardinals Betting Preview: Is Josh Rosen a Good Bet in First Start? article feature image
Credit:

Credit: USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Earl Thomas and Josh Rosen.

Betting odds: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

  • Spread: Seahawks -3
  • Over/Under: 39
  • Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Thursday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: There’s no shortage of interesting market activity on this game. From a distance, it looks like a Pros vs. Joes scenario, as Arizona has gone from +3.5 to +3 despite just 26% of bets (find live data here).

While the pros like Arizona +3.5, they also like Seattle -3. As PJ Walsh explained earlier in the week, it’s possible for sharps to like both sides of a game depending on the number.

With sharp bettors probably waiting to hop on Arizona again at +3.5, oddsmakers have been reluctant to move the number back.

At the time of writing, the juice on Seattle’s -3 is higher than spread juice generally goes at -125, forcing anyone who wants the Seahawks to pay a steep price. — Mark Gallant



Trends to know: Fewer than 30% of spread tickets are on the 0-3 Cardinals as home underdogs. Reminder: We don’t know as much as we think about teams early in the season.

According to our Bet Labs data, teams getting fewer than 30% of spread tickets are 143-111-3 (56%) against the spread in the month of September, since 2003. In all other months such teams are 406-411-24 (50%) ATS. — John Ewing

The Cardinals have scored 20 total points in their first three games of the regular season, including 14 points or fewer in all three games.

Since 2005, teams playing at home after three straight scoring less than 14 points have been very profitable in the first half, going 45-22-2 against the first half spread (+19.2 units).

When the home team is listed as an underdog in this spot, it has gone 33-11-2 against the first-half spread.Evan Abrams

DFS edge: Cornerback Patrick Peterson rarely travels into the slot. He hasn’t recorded a coverage snap there once this season and had just 63 total slot snaps in 2017. This is good news for Tyler Lockett, who has run 62.3% of his routes from the slot this year.

Lockett has scored touchdowns in three straight games and leads the Seahawks in targets over the past two weeks with Doug Baldwin (knee) out of the lineup. (Baldwin returned to limited practice on Wednesday.)

This game is best left off your cash game radar. — Justin Bailey


>> Check out Sports Insights’ Bet Signals to track sharp action for college football’s entire Week 4 slate.


Injury watch: Starting center Justin Britt (shoulder) is expected to return to the lineup, and Baldwin (knee) could suit up as well after limited practice to start the week.

They’ll be needed to balance out Seattle’s banged-up backfield, as neither Chris Carson (hip) nor C.J. Prosise (abdomen) managed to get in a full practice to start the week. Left guard Ethan Pocic (ankle) should be considered questionable.

The defense is the larger concern, as linebacker Bobby Wagner (groin), defensive end Rasheem Green (ankle), defensive end Dion Jordan (core), linebacker K.J. Wright (knee), and safety Delano Hill (hamstring) aren’t certain to play Sunday.

The Cardinals appear to be healthy, although they’ve made a habit of filling their early week injury report with an abundance of players who ultimately don’t even get an injury designation.

Only right tackle Andre Smith (elbow), wide receiver Chad Williams (illness) and Olsen Pierre (toe) are dealing with injuries that could seemingly threaten their game statuses.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

Bet To Watch: Cardinals +3

This pick has nothing to do with the Josh Rosen hype, and has everything to do with what the Cardinals front seven will do against Seattle’s offensive line.

The Cardinals rank sixth in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate metric, and they’ll face a Seahawks offensive line that is 31st in the same category.

Per usual, Russell Wilson will be on the run every single down. Arizona’s other advantage is what running back David Johnson can do against the Seahawks’ front seven.

While the Cardinals’ offense is second in the league in Stuff Rate (measuring the ability to pick up short yardage), the Seahawks defense is 21st in the same category.

Arizona should be able to generate first downs through the rushing game when needed, thus limiting the number of third-and-long situations for Rosen. — Collin Wilson

 


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

How would you rate this article?