Super Bowl Best Bets: 49ers vs Chiefs Player Props
The biggest game of the NFL season has arrived, and Action Network’s staff has you covered with Super Bowl Best Bets and 49ers vs Chiefs player props.
Spoiler: If you don't like betting unders, this is the article for you. We've got overs for Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice and more. Plus an anytime touchdown pick for a Chiefs tight end who isn't Travis Kelce.
Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Super Bowl Best Bets: 49ers vs Chiefs Player Props
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
49ers vs. Chiefs
You can find Patrick Mahomes' passing yards line anywhere from 260.5 to 263.5 yards. I would hit it the over at any number in this range.
While the 49ers defense is much easier to attack on the ground, the Chiefs are still going to be passing heavily. Mahomes has been passing at a massive clip pretty much all season, and while he's hit the under at this number in two of the Chiefs' three playoff games, I'm not particularly worried.
All three games have been played in rough weather, and he had 39 and 41 pass attempts in two of those contests. He's playing this game in a dome, and his receivers have really stepped it up in recent weeks with Kelce playing great, Rice becoming a huge threat, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling actually catching the ball.
I have Mahomes projected to go 20-plus yards over this number, making this a great EV bet. I would hit this line all the way to 270.5.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 260.5 Passing Yards (-115)
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49ers vs. Chiefs
By Ricky Henne
If it’s a big game, you can expect Mahomes to use his legs. The proof’s simply in the pudding. As a result, I’m taking several Mahomes rushing props, but the over on 4.5 attempts is my favorite.
Mahomes has eclipsed 4.5 rushing attempts in nine of his last 15 playoff games dating back to 2019. He ran the ball only twice in Kansas City’s Wild Card Game win over the Dolphins, but he carried it six times apiece in wins over the Bills and Ravens. Mahomes had at least five rushing attempts in all three of his previous Super Bowls, averaging 6.7 carries per game.
Finally, if you’re a believer that the Chiefs comes out on top like I do, we may very well get some Mahomes kneel downs to end the game. Either way, I like Mahomes to go over 4.5 attempts and would take this up to 5.5.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)
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49ers vs. Chiefs
By Ricky Henne
It’s hard not to be excited about Isiah Pacheco after watching what the Packers and Lions did against San Francisco’s mediocre run defense.
Packers running backs averaged 5.6 yards per carry (YPC) and totaled 124 rushing yards as they carved San Francisco up in the Divisional Round. The Lions' one-two punch of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs followed suit, gashing San Francisco for 138 yards while averaging 5.1 YPC.
To their credit, the 49ers bucked up in the second half against Detroit. Still, they don’t elicit much faith. They ranked 15th in defensive rush DVOA during the regular season, but struggled against potent running teams while shutting down relatively weak ones.
Meanwhile, 67.5 rushing yards for Pacheco feels awfully low considering he routinely passes that number and doesn’t have much competition for touches. The Chiefs get Jerick McKinnon back, but he’s largely filled a pass-catcher role over his tenure with Kansas City. Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s gotten no more than a few token carries as Pacheco’s emerged as one of the league’s true bell-cow backs.
I love this number and matchup. Pacheco’s eclipsed 67.5 rushing yards in six straight starts in which he didn’t have to leave early due to injury, and seven of his last eight. I don’t see many reasons to think he won’t have the same level of success in the Super Bowl.
Pick: Isiah Pacheco Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
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49ers vs. Chiefs
By Jacob Wayne
Kyle "Juice" Juszczyk was a huge part of the 49ers' offensive game plan in the NFC Championship Game, playing 40 snaps — his highest since Week 3 — and running 17 routes, tied for his most of the season.
The Lions run a worse version of the Chiefs' defense — heavy blitzing and man coverage — and that led to Juice seeing some additional receiving opportunities with two catches for 33 yards. Juice has played the Chiefs three times as a member of the 49ers, and he's cleared this prop all three times, averaging 37 receiving yards per game.
The Chiefs live in nickel and dime personnel and I expect the 49ers to lean into their condensed formations with heavy personnel to combat that.
With Juice on the field plenty and leaking out for some downfield opportunities, I love his upside as a receiver in this game. I'd play this up to 6.5.
Pick: Kyle Juszczyk Over 4.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
49ers vs. Chiefs
Over the last nine weeks, Rashee Rice has been a massive part of the Chiefs offense, putting up great numbers nearly every game. He's had a massive target share with nine-plus targets in seven of his last nine games.
While Rice has gone under 67.5 receiving yards in each of the last two games, those were tough matchups played in bad weather.
This game is being played in a dome, and the 49ers defense has been suspect in the second half of the season. I have Rice projected for almost 80 yards, making this a great over. I would hit this bet all the way to 73.5.
Pick: Rashee Rice Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
49ers vs. Chiefs
You may be surprised to learn that Noah Gray has been targeted three or more times in 55% of his games this season.
The third-year tight end has earned Patrick Mahomes' trust with just one drop on 41 targets during the regular season. And he’s coming off a five-target performance against the Ravens in which he was featured in both 12 personnel and some of the Chiefs' four and five wide receiver sets.
Gray's consistently played over 50% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps this season and he is a fixture in goal-to-go formations. He has two targets inside the 10-yard line already this postseason, and with all eyes on Travis Kelce, there’s a decent chance he sees at least one more on Sunday.
And let’s not discount the Andy Reid factor when the two-time Super Bowl-winning head coach has time to tinker in the play-calling lab. In last year's Super Bowl, Reid dialed up short touchdown throws to Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney. There isn’t a coach in the league who relishes red-zone wrinkles more than Reid, which is why I think at this price it’s well worth a shot on Gray becoming the beneficiary of a new play design.
Pick: Noah Gray Anytime Touchdown (+900)
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