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Bucs-Giants Betting Preview: Recency Bias Creating Value on This Spread

Nov 18, 2018 10:36 PM EST

Betting odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants

  • Spread: Giants -1.5
  • Over/Under: 52
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: There is a bit of market disagreement on this game, as some books have moved the Giants listed as high as -2, while others have the game at a pick’em.

With both bets and dollars split between 45% and 60% all week, it appears oddsmakers don’t really have the incentive to be on the same page (see live betting data here).

If bettors begin pushing the line toward -3 or a pick’em at some key books, I imagine there will be some more uniformity around the market. —Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Eli Manning is listed as a favorite for the first time since Week 10 of the 2017 season, ending a streak of 15 consecutive games as an underdog.

In his career, Manning is 39-39-2 against the spread as a home favorite in the regular season. — John Ewing

This probably isn’t a shock to anyone following the Giants offense the past few seasons, but Manning has faced a defense allowing 30 points per game 14 times in his career, and only in one of those games did the Giants manage to score at least 30 points.

On the bright side, Manning is actually 8-6 ATS in those 14 games. — Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Tampa Bay’s Secondary

His quarterback may be washed, but Beckham continues to do defenders dirty. OBJ ranks fifth in receiving yards per game, sixth in receptions per game, and has gone for 100-plus yards five times in nine games.

On the flip side, the Bucs have been shredded by opposing wideouts for 9.0 yards per target and a league-high 15 touchdowns.

All of the cornerbacks on their roster have a Pro Football Focus coverage grade that resembles the grade of a student who cuts all of his classes and doesn’t even bother to cheat on the test.

Rookie Carlton Davis is Tampa’s top-graded corner at 58.9, which ranks just 68th at the position. — Chris Raybon

Which team is healthier? Giants

The Giants aren’t expected to have any starters in question come Sunday, as safety Curtis Riley (shoulder) and linebacker Alec Ogletree (rib) each managed to practice in full Thursday.

The Buccaneers aren’t so lucky, as defensive stalwarts — including linebacker Lavonte David (knee), defensive ends Vinny Curry (ankle) and Carl Nassib (elbow), as well as safety Justin Evans (toe) — aren’t guaranteed to suit up.

The offense could at least welcome back rookie running back Ronald Jones (hamstring), but Chris Godwin (ankle) failed to practice on Wednesday or Thursday.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Saquon Barkley is projected for 21-25% ownership in large-field tournaments on DraftKings, and it’s warranted in this spot against a Buccaneers defense which will be without LB Kwon Alexander (IR)and potentially LB Lavonte David (knee).

Even if Saquon can’t find room behind the Giants’ atrocious line, he still owns 22% of their target share, which should further solidify his floor.

Barkley owns the highest median projection among running backs in the FantasyLabs Player Models. —Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Buccaneers +105

Tampa and the Giants are definitely two teams whose perception has been impacted by last week’s results.

But, the more you dig, the Bucs’ loss at home to the Redskins was as much of a mirage as any result this season. Tampa thoroughly out-gained Washington and dominated in yards per play. The Bucs just had hideous turnovers, which caused the score to swing the other way.

That’s great, because it means they may be a little undervalued here. They figure to be able to move the ball just as easily on the G-Men.

Meanwhile, the Giants get a win Monday night over a terrible San Francisco team and now travel cross country back home on a short week to get ready for a Sunday 1 p.m. ET start.

I finally get to do something I’ve only dreamed about all season: betting against Eli Manning. — Ken Barkley


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

Credit:

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Giants Quarterback Eli Manning.

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