The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) and Buffalo Bills (6-3) square off in Week 11 on Sunday, Nov. 16. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The game will broadcast on CBS.
The Bills are 5.5-point favorites over the Buccaneers on the spread (Bills -5.5); the over/under is 46.5 points. Buffalo is a -270 moneyline favorite; Tampa Bay is a +220 underdog.
Let's get into my Week 11 preview and Buccaneers vs Bills prediction.
Buccaneers vs Bills Prediction
- Buccaneers vs Bills pick: Buccaneers +5.5 (-110)
My Buccaneers vs Bills best bet is on Tampa Bay to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Buccaneers vs Bills Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
Buccaneers vs Bills Week 11 Preview
The Bills offense has really trended toward the run ever since Joe Brady became their offensive coordinator a couple of years ago. In that time, they let Stefon Diggs go and shifted into this mode where, in big games, they let Josh Allen bail them out by running more.
Otherwise, they’re going to run the ball and let everyone eat on offense. However, it has devolved into a situation where they have to run the ball in order to be successful.
I know Tampa Bay gave up some explosives to New England last week, but overall, I still think the Buccaneers' run defense, on a down-to-down basis, is one of the best in the league. They rank right there with the best of the best in in rushing success rate.
It's Buffalo, it’s James Cook. He’ll probably make an explosive play, but I’m not scared of that at all.
This Tampa Bay defense matches up well from that perspective. And for Allen, the numbers aren't great against the blitz; he really hasn’t beaten the blitz to the same extent he has in the past.
Tampa Bay likes to blitz a lot, so this is going to be a tough matchup for Buffalo to consistently generate offense through the air. And it really comes down to the fact that the Bills are putting way too much on Keon Coleman, a player who, based on what we saw last year, had no guarantee of turning into anything.
Khalil Shakir practiced this week, but he’s still on the injury report, along with a lot of other Bills. The potential loss of Dalton Kincaid is big because he’s not your typical tight end who’s only good against zone (and Tampa Bay does play a lot of zone), but he can beat man coverage, too, which would be very useful.
Say what you want about the Buccaneers, we always call them a little overrated (and at times they have been), but they’re a very well-coached team.
Todd Bowles stays out of the way on offense, and the defense tends to be well-coached no matter who’s in there.
In this spot, given their run defense, I don’t think the Bucs are going to give up a 40-burger to Buffalo.
It’s going to be raining, or at least weather will be in play, and that helps Tampa Bay because they can stop the run and Buffalo can’t.
Tampa is also starting to get Sean Tucker involved, and I think he gives them something extra in the run game compared to relying only on Rachaad White.
We know Baker Mayfield is going to pull plays out of nowhere regardless of who they’re playing. Buffalo is going to sit back in zone coverage.
The Bills are dealing with a bunch of defensive injuries too.
Up front, Ed Oliver and several regular contributors haven’t been fully available. I'm not quite sure what’s up with all these injury report listings. I’m guessing it’s just the travel to Miami and that everyone will ultimately play, given they were back at practice in a limited fashion.
Buffalo isn’t the same team as in past years. It’s not the version I expected coming into the season, the one that could run away with everything.
If you look at some of the Bills' wins, their win over Baltimore seems more improbable each week. Their second-biggest win was the Jets, 30-10, and the Jets are terrible. They beat the Panthers 40-9, which isn’t all that impressive.
They did beat the Chiefs — and yes, you always back them in that 'dog spot in the regular season — but I think this is too many points.
Tampa Bay matches up well against Buffalo. And the weather pulling the total down matters; I would have projected this total above 50 with no weather, but it’s down to 48. That helps the underdog.
Buccaneers vs Bills Prediction, Betting Analysis
This is a pretty simple handicap for me.
The line hasn’t really changed, but matchup-wise, if this becomes a more run-centric game, that helps the underdog because Tampa’s run defense is elite and Buffalo’s has been horrible. That’s the equalizer.
Plus, with Tampa Bay blitzing at a high rate, it’s not as simple as Allen standing back there and running away from people. The blitz packages complicate things.
I don’t think we'll see this line move to +6, but you can wait if you want. Either way, I love Tampa Bay +5.5.
Pick: Buccaneers +5.5 (-110)
Spread
My Bills vs. Buccaneers betting prediction is on Tampa Bay to cover the spread.
Moneyline
I have no bet on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm staying away from the total in this game.
Buccaneers vs Bills Betting Trends
Buccaneers vs Bills Weather
