The New England Patriots host the Houston Texans to open the NFL Divisional Round Sunday doubleheader on January 17. Kickoff from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., is set for 3:00 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast on ABC and ESPN.
The Patriots are 3-point favorites over the Texans on the spread (Patriots -3), with the over/under set at 40.5 total points. New England is a -180 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Houston is +150 to pull off the upset.
Below, you can find our Texans vs Patriots picks for the Divisional Round, which include predictions for the spread, game total and four player props.
Texans vs Patriots Picks & Predictions
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texans vs Patriots Odds
- Texans vs Patriots Moneyline: Texans +150, Patriots -180
- Texans vs Patriots Spread: Texans +3, Patriots -3
- Texans vs Patriots Total: 40.5
NFL odds via bet365
Texans vs Patriots Spread Prediction
By Billy Ward
Last week, I said that I believed the Patriots were the best team in the AFC when I took their point spread against the Chargers. While I would’ve liked to see more from their offense, nothing about their 16-3 win significantly changed my position.
Plus, they’re facing a Texans team that struggled offensively in their 30-6 win over Pittsburgh. While the 30 points look good, two of their touchdowns came on defense against a broken Steelers offense; Houston won’t have so many easy opportunities against New England.
While Drake Maye takes a few more sacks than he probably should, he’s done a good job protecting the ball, ranking 10th in turnover-worthy plays among full-time starters this season. That means Houston will need to figure out a way to do something offensively to keep pace, which is a tall task on the road in Foxborough.
Crucially, the spread is still at the key number of 3 at most books at the time of writing, though we’re starting to see movement up to 3.5.
I’ll lay the points with New England at the lower number if you can find it, but I would back off if forced to lay the additional half-point.
Pick: Patriots -3 (-114)
Texans vs Patriots Over/Under Pick
By Kenny Ducey
What does the Patriots defense have in store for us in the Divisional Round? They started off the season on the right foot — especially in rush defense — but when it was all said and done, they ranked 25th against the run and the unit was supported mainly by its pass defense.
That pass defense was on display in the Wild Card Round as the Chargers and Justin Herbert were unable to get anything going.
Houston's not exactly an offensive juggernaut, and its run game has been missing in action for most of the season. Last week was an exception, albeit a notable one given the Steelers have a strong rush defense. But even if Woody Marks shows up again on Sunday, we can't assume Houston will be able to run the ball all game long without fear of the rival's offense.
The Texans have the best defense in football right now, so perhaps they can, but it's much more likely we'll see a bunch of C.J. Stroud here. He didn't have his sharpest game against Pittsburgh, turning the ball over three times through three quarters, and New England's defense, as noted, has looked pretty solid against the pass in the last couple of months.
Drake Maye has been solid under pressure, which has helped him become immune to certain matchups, but Houston has picked off passes left and right and stopped opposing running backs in their tracks.
Neither offense has an easy enough route to points to believe in a high-scoring game.
Pick: Under 40.5 (-110)
Texans vs Patriots Player Props: Drake Maye
The Texans are top-3 in pressure rate since Week 12 and have one of the best pass-rushing teams in the NFL in general (as the Steelers found out last week), but thanks to this, they're also fourth in rushing yards allowed per game on scrambles in that same time frame.
Patriots QB Drake Maye leads the league in rushing yards on scrambles this season, so this sets up as a potentially big rushing game for him.
Pick: Drake Maye Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Texans vs Patriots Player Props: Stefon Diggs
Stefon Diggs has been one of the most boom-bust wide receivers this season — I don't expect him to have a big game in this spot.
The Texans have been one of the toughest defenses in the league this season (ranking in the top three in nearly every category), and they've been tough vs. WR1s, with Derek Stingley Jr. being one of the best corners in the game.
Diggs has already hit the under at this number in 11-of-18 games this season, and he gets his toughest matchup to date.
Add in that the total for this game is low (40.5), the Pats are favored (which leads toward running the ball even more), and the weather is a bit of a downgrade for the passing game.
Pick: Stefon Diggs Under 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Texans vs Patriots Anytime Touchdown Pick
By Grant Neiffer
Nico Collins has been ruled out because of a concussion, which means there are a lot of targets and snaps open for the other Texans wide receivers — Higgins should be in for a decent amount of those.
Higgins played close to 50% of snaps last week and was in line for more than that after the Collins injury.
Higgins has six touchdowns already this season, and I have the true odds here under +300.
Pick: Jayden Higgins Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+350)
Texans vs Patriots Player Props: Woody Marks
By Chris Raybon
For my pick, I’m going with Woody Marks Under 58.5 rushing yards.
I think the market is too high on him after what you could call a breakout performance last week against the Steelers: 19 carries for 112 yards and a touchdown.
However, this is a totally different spot.
I’ve talked about this before: Marks has been extremely inefficient as a runner. That’s not all on him, but the Texans’ offensive line may be better than last year, it is still not good. He’s averaging just 3.6 yards per carry this season.
When you look at the Patriots, their run defense is night and day with Milton Williams on the field versus off it. It cratered late when Williams was out, combined with linebacker injuries, but with him back, it’s been much better. Plus, Khyiris Tonga should be back as well.
I think something that’s being a bit overlooked is what we saw last week against the Chargers. You can criticize the Chargers however you want — they fired their coordinator and didn’t run the ball at all — but that also says something about the deterrent the Patriots’ run defense presents when healthy. Justin Herbert was still dealing with his hand injury; they had backup tackles, the offensive line wasn’t great, and yet they still didn’t run the ball, even in red-zone situations off turnovers. That’s significant.
I don’t think the Texans will completely abandon the run, but I do think the Patriots’ run defense deserves more credit as a deterrent than the market is giving it.
Nick Chubb got some carries last week, but it wasn’t full garbage time. There’s no guarantee Marks gets 80% or 90% of the work. He’s averaged about 70% of designed backfield runs as the RB1, but in those games, the Texans averaged a +8 point differential and won all but one.
Now they’re an underdog in New England. That projects to a more neutral or negative game script than Marks has had during most of his time as the RB1. In the one game the Texans didn’t win with Marks as the lead back, he had 15 carries and didn’t do much with them.
Looking at the Patriots this year, they’ve allowed 3.8 yards per carry with Milton Williams. Without him, that jumps to 5.0. In those games Williams missed, they allowed 147 rushing yards per game. With him, just 83 per game. That 3.8 would rank second in the NFL, behind only Seattle’s historically dominant run defense. Five yards per carry would be bottom five.
For more context: in games Williams played, the Patriots allowed 58 rushing yards to a running back in the game he got injured, and only once allowed more than 50 yards, that was Sean Tucker in Week 10. Outside of that, every running back through the first 10 weeks was held under 50 yards.
There’s also the chance Chubb mixes in more, and the Texans could even have four active running backs. They aren’t particularly good in heavy sets anyway. Even if Marks gets 20 carries, he could still go under this number.
Pick: Woody Marks Under 58.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
