Titans vs. Falcons Betting Picks & Odds: Buy Low on Tennessee?

Titans vs. Falcons Betting Picks & Odds: Buy Low on Tennessee? article feature image

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones

Titans at Falcons Betting Picks & Odds

  • Spread: Falcons -4
  • Over/Under: 45.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Thursday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

After exploding for a 43-13 season-opening win over the Browns, the Titans have struggled offensively. Now they’re 4-point underdogs in Atlanta.

Can Marcus Mariota and Co. turn it around on the road? Or should you roll with the Falcons?

Our experts break down the most important angles of this game, featuring Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a staff pick.

Titans-Falcons Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Titans

The Falcons lost a key player in S Keanu Neal (Achilles) last week and stud DT Grady Jarrett (toe) hasn’t practiced this week.

Delanie Walker (knee) didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday, which typically isn’t a good sign, but his Friday status will be the biggest indicator of his health for Week 4. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Titans Short Pass Offense vs. Falcons Pass Defense

The short passing attack, especially off playaction, against the Falcons’ Cover 3 could see this Titans offense look more like the one we saw in Week 1.

Marcus Mariota and his receivers have not been effective, but the offensive line deserves a large portion of the blame. After getting dominated by the Jags defensive front, the Titans’ O-line ranks dead last in adjusted sack rate.

However, the Atlanta front hasn’t been getting a ton of pressure and is dealing with injuries to two of its best players in Jarrett and Takkarist McKinley. Plus, the short passing attack can alleviate some of the issues Tennessee is dealing with up front.

Expect a huge day out of Walker over the middle of the field against a Falcons team that just lost Neal for the season. They will now go with Kemal Ishmael, who might be good in the run game but is a significant downgrade in the coverage department. And the one area where Mariota hasn’t struggled this year is when targeting his tight end.

Marcus Mariota-Delanie Walker
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Marcus Mariota, Delanie Walker

The former Oregon product has a 128.7 passer rating when throwing to Walker. Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Falcons -4
  • Projected Total: 46.5

It’s true that the Titans are a bottom-five team in terms of my total ratings. They’re a run-heavy team that relies on their defense to keep them in games, and they try to limit Mariota to an extreme game-manager role. But they could be forced into a more pass-happy, faster-paced game plan on Atlanta in order to stay in the game.

That could result in an increase in snaps for Dion Lewis as the Titans abandon their “feed Derrick Henry” game plan, which will force their hand to play to the over based on the matchup. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Titans +4 or better

I like the Titans catching four points for four primary reasons.

Reason No. 1: As I mentioned, Mariota and Co. can have some success in the short passing game, especially with Walker. One week after the loss of Neal, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some blown coverages and communication issues in the secondary.

Reason No. 2: The Falcons have major questions along their offensive line, particularly at both guard spots and at right tackle with a rookie starter. The Titans defensive front can generate pressure and cause havoc with Jurrell Casey and Cameron Wake. They can get pressure on Matt Ryan, forcing him into bad throws, which we’ve seen a lot of this season (Ryan leads the NFL in picks). I actually expect the Titans to win the overall battle of the trenches.

Reason No. 3: Tennessee has the secondary talent to stick with all of Atlanta’s weapons on the outside.

Reason No. 4: Lastly, I actually think Dan Quinn is on the hot seat. His teams are constantly underprepared and sloppy. Look no further than that flag-filled contest vs. the Colts last week. Atlanta is currently tied with Cleveland for most penalties per game at a shockingly high 11.7. That lack of preparation and focus has consistently reared its ugly head against AFC opponents under Quinn. And for this week, the Titans have had extra prep/rest after a Thursday night game.

Quinn — who is 29-38 against the spread, making him the second-least profitable coach among all active coaches — is 0-12 ATS over his last 12 games vs. the AFC. He’s also just 3-8 on the moneyline as a favorite against the AFC.

I’m buying low on the Titans against a banged-up Falcons team that just doesn’t look right.

How would you rate this article?