Titans vs. Panthers Odds & Picks: An Over/Under Play

Titans vs. Panthers Odds & Picks: An Over/Under Play article feature image

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Christian McCaffrey

  • Our experts analyze Sunday's matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers.
  • Find their analysis of the betting odds below, complete with picks and projections.

Titans at Panthers Odds & Picks

  • Odds: Panthers -3.5
  • Over/Under: 42
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Ryan Tannehill has impressed as Tennessee’s starting quarterback, but he faces a strong pass defense in Carolina this weekend.

Our experts break down this matchup, complete with analysis of the biggest mismatch and a staff pick.

Titans-Panthers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Panthers

The Panthers had a lengthy injury report on Wednesday, but most players returned to full practice by the time Thursday rolled around. Most of them appear on track to play with the exception of OL Greg Little (concussion).

Delanie Walker (ankle) continues to miss practice with his ankle injury. As Walker stated that this is a flare-up from the injury he suffered last season, I’d be surprised to see him play this week since he’s still missing practice. Jonnu Smith filled in nicely last week, going 6-78-1 on seven targets.

Starting center Ben Jones (concussion) hasn’t practiced this week either. His potential absence would be bad news for Tannehill since Jones is their best pass-blocker and the Panthers have a solid pass rush. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Panthers Pass Defense vs. Ryan Tannehill

On the surface, Tannehill acquitted himself well in his first two starts with the Titans, leading them to two wins while throwing five touchdowns to one interception. But his Total QBR of 37.7 would rank 26th among qualifiers, indicating that the Chargers’ 25th-ranked and Bucs’ 26th-ranked defenses in Football Outsiders’ passing DVOA may have had something to do with it.

This week, a much tougher test awaits Tannehill in the form of Carolina’s third-ranked unit in DVOA.

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured:  Ryan Tannehill.

Relying on the NFL’s eighth-highest pressure rate (27.0%) and fourth-best coverage unit according to Pro Football Focus, the Panthers have limited rival passers to the third-lowest net yards per attempt figure in the league (5.2). Even in last week’s drubbing at the hands of San Francisco, Carolina permitted only 156 net passing yards. Meanwhile, despite facing two of the league’s worst pass defenses in his two starts, Tannehill’s mark sits at a middling 6.6, which doesn’t inspire much confidence heading into this matchup.

After the Panthers were dragged for 232 rushing yards in that game against the 49ers, Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith would be wise to lean on Derrick Henry and a defense that has only allowed one of its eight opponents this season to top 20 points this week.

Somewhat surprisingly considering the makeup and strengths of these teams, the Panthers enter this week riding a three-game over streak while the over has hit in two consecutive Titans games as well. But with how this matchup sets up and given the probable increased intensity of Carolina’s defense following last week’s embarrassment, it would hardly be a surprise if this game fell short of its total of 42. Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Panthers -3
  • Projected Total: 41.5

Expert Picks

Justin Bailey: Under 42

I think the Titans will struggle to move the ball in this spot against a Panthers that ranks fifth in defensive DVOA and allows just 5.1 yards per play, the fifth-best mark in the league. Additionally, the Titans rank just 26th in pace of play, and to make matters worse, Jones hasn’t been practicing this week. His potential absence would be an enormous setback for the Tennessee offense considering he’s one of the team’s best pass blockers and the Panthers rank second in adjusted sack rate.

The Titans are also an above-average defense, ranking 12th in defensive DVOA and allowing 5.3 yards per play. This game has 24-14 written all over it with Carolina and Tennessee ranking 20th and 27th in scoring rate this year.

I’d bet this down to 41. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

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