Your Ultimate NFL Week 10 Betting Guide: Tips, Picks, Strategies for Every Game
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Todd Gurley, Drew Brees and Tyreek Hill
- If you're looking for comprehensive betting and fantasy football previews for every Week 10 game, you've come to the right place.
- Our experts cover trends, sharp action, fantasy football sleepers and make the case for a few bets.
All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
Betting odds: Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs
- Spread: Chiefs -16.5
- Over/Under: 49.5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: CBS
Betting market: This is a big number, but two-thirds of bettors have not been scared away from taking the Chiefs. Despite the public support, they’ve fallen from the nice round number of -17 to -16.5.
Trends to know: This is just the second time in the past 20 years that the Chiefs have been favored by 14 or more points, according to our Bet Labs data.
The previous time was Week 15 vs. Detroit in 2003, Trent Green and Priest Holmes combined for six touchdowns in a win and cover. — John Ewing
Did you know? Andy Reid’s teams have been favored by 14 or more points four other times in his career going 2-2 straight up and against the spread. His teams have lost and failed to cover in the past two games.
Reid hasn’t been profitable as a large favorite, going 22-24 ATS when giving more than seven points to an opponent in the regular season. — Ewing
The Chiefs can be the first team in the NFL this season to eclipse their preseason win total (8.5, over +115) with a win against the Cardinals. — Evan Abrams
The Cardinals are averaging 13.8 PPG (31st in the league) and face a Chiefs team, that is averaging a league-leading 36.3 PPG.
Since 2003, teams averaging fewer than 14 PPG on the season — and are also coming off a win and listed as an underdog of more than a touchdown — are 17-6-2 ATS (73.9%), covering the spread by 6.1 PPG and profiting bettors 9.4 units. — Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Chiefs pass rush vs. Arizona offensive line
The Chiefs have received a lot of flack for their lack of defense this season, but they’ve at least been better against the pass (14th in DVOA) than the run (32nd).
The Cardinals were able to pick up a win in Byron Leftwich’s first game as offensive coordinator, although it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to fix an offensive line that is one of just three units to surrender a pressure rate of 40% or higher this season.
Not helping matters for the Cardinals offense is a Chiefs defense that has taken its game to another level at Arrowhead.
K.C.’s defense has allowed 23.5 PPG and 269.3 pass yards on the road compared to 16.7 PPG and 227 pass yards at home since 2015. — Ian Hartitz
Which team is healthier? Cardinals
The Cardinals are at risk of missing starting guards Jeremy Vujnovich (hamstring) and Justin Pugh (hand), but receiver Chad Williams (ankle) is the only other key contributor thought to be at risk of missing action.
The Chiefs are hoping to get elite pass-rusher Justin Houston (hamstring) back this week, but they could once again be without safeties Eric Berry (heel) and Daniel Sorensen (knee).
Wide receiver Sammy Watkins (foot), left guard Cam Erving (heel) and center Mitch Morse (concussion) all failed to practice to start the week.
DFS edge: The Cardinals have only asked Patrick Peterson to shadow Stefon Diggs this season, although Tyreek Hill would certainly warrant that treatment. Watkins (foot, questionable) is also a candidate, considering Hill has run 37% of his snaps from the slot this season.
Matchups aren’t particularly worrisome for anyone involved in the league’s top-ranked scoring offense, although Hill’s infamous home/away splits are just getting ridiculous at this point.
Overall, TyFreak has scored 20 touchdowns in 20 career road games compared to eight touchdowns in 22 games at Arrowhead Stadium.
Be sure to stack Hill with MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes on DraftKings, where they boast a +0.3 positive correlation in nine career games together. — Hartitz
Bet to watch: Cardinals +16.5
The Chiefs have steamrolled their competition this season, owning an 8-1 record SU and ATS. That said, this could be a tricky spot.
The Cardinals looked better offensively in their last game before the bye, which coincided with Byron Leftwich’s first game as offensive coordinator. Arizona recorded a season-high in total yards in that 18-15 win vs. the San Francisco 49ers.
My biggest concerns, though, lie with Kansas City. For starters, the Chiefs will likely be without Watkins. Losing a skill player doesn’t seem like a huge deal given the Chiefs’ loaded offense, but they did struggle a bit with Watkins out of the lineup Week 4 in Denver.
This is also a major lookahead spot for the Chiefs, who have a potential Super Bowl preview vs. the Los Angeles Rams looming next week. They know they don’t need their A-game to beat the Cards — or their B-game for that matter — so I’m not expecting to see it. — Matt LaMarca
Betting odds: New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals
- Spread: Saints -5.5
- Over/Under: 54
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: FOX
Betting market: Following a huge win over the Rams, the Saints have garnered 76% of bet tickets. Though initial sharp action on the Bengals moved Cincy from +4 to +3.5, the market quickly shifted its attention to New Orleans.
Trends to know: New Orleans is a road favorite in Cincinnati against a Bengals team coming off a bye week. Advantage Cincy, right? No.
Last week, the Saints knocked off the Rams, taking out the last undefeated team in the NFL. A common betting theory is to fade teams coming off big, monumental wins.
Since 2003, teams in November or later that knocked off an undefeated team the previous week, are 14-7-1 ATS (66.7%), covering the spread by five points per game, including 9-4-1 ATS when playing their next game on the road. — Evan Abrams
After barely surviving against the Bucs at home two weeks ago, the Bengals have had a bye week at home to prepare for the Saints.
Since 2003, only two teams have been over .500 coming off a bye week as a home dog of more than a field goal:
- 2007 Carolina Panthers (+7) vs. Colts and Peyton Manning; lost straight up and ATS
- 2005 Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) vs. Colts and Peyton Manning; lost SU and ATS — Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Alvin Kamara vs. Bengals Tacklers
The Bengals enter Week 10 ranked as the third-worst tackling team in football according to Pro Football Focus’ grades — not ideal with the slippery Kamara coming to town.
Kamara has built an impressive resume highlighted by 25 touchdowns on only 363 career touches, or one every 14.5 touches, and he’s done it largely by exposing poor tackling.
As a rookie, Kamara led the league in Elusive Rating, an advanced PFF metric which measures miss tackles forced and yards after contact gained on those missed tackles.
He’s at it again this season, with the third-most missed tackles forced among running backs in the passing game and a silly 12 touchdowns through eight games. — Chris Raybon
Which team is healthier: Saints
The Saints effectively replaced Cam Meredith (knee, IR) with Dez Bryant. The only other key player expected to be sidelined for New Orleans is defensive end Marcus Davenport (toe).
The Bengals, on the other hand, are dealing with a plethora of injuries on both sides of the ball. John Ross (groin) is expected to return to the lineup, but A.J. Green (toe) and tight end Tyler Kroft (foot) are expected to be sidelined.
The defense could be without linebackers Nick Vigil (knee) and Vontaze Burfict (hip) in addition to slot corner Darqueze Dennard (shoulder).
DFS edge: The Saints haven’t asked stud cornerback Marshon Lattimore to shadow in consecutive weeks after the team added Eli Apple before the trade deadline. The Saints’ 29th-ranked pass defense isn’t exactly a unit to fear, but they have allowed fewer than 23 points against every team other than the Rams, Falcons and Bucs.
Still, Tyler Boyd is set up about as well as possible, as he’s positioned to run the majority of his routes against slot corner P.J. Williams, who is PFF’s No. 108 graded cornerback.
Bet to watch: Under 54
The Bengals offense will struggle to live up to its No. 4 ranking in rate of explosive passing plays without Green, who is responsible for 40% of the team’s air yards and ranks fourth in the league with 12 receptions of 20 or more yards.
New Orleans’ defense ranks No. 3 in DVOA vs. the run and can force Cincinnati into being one-dimensional, short-passing team.
On the other side of the ball, we know the Saints can score, but they rank second in the league with a 52% run rate since Mark Ingram’s return and could chew up a lot of clock in the process. The under is 3-1 in Saints road games this season. — Chris Raybon
Betting odds: Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns
- Spread: Falcons -6
- Over/Under: 51
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: FOX
Betting market: For the second straight week, the Browns are getting no love as a home dog. At the time of writing they are getting just 18% of the bets, so it’s not surprising to have seen them move from +3.5 to +4.5. There has been some sharp action on Cleveland (again), but not enough to keep the line from ballooning to 6 (see live betting data here). — Mark Gallant
Weather report: Sunday will have an almost wintery feel, as temperatures in Cleveland will be in the high 30s. The winds are currently borderline double digits, which is something to definitely keep an eye on. — Mark Gallant
Trends to know: The public is once again fading the Browns. Since 2003, teams that receive 20% or less of spread tickets have gone 114-92-9 (55%) ATS. Late in the season, November to January, teams getting little public support have gone 63-42-8 (60%) ATS. — John Ewing
Biggest mismatch: Duke Johnson vs Atlanta’s coverage in the flat
The Falcons are on pace to allow the most receptions in the league to running backs for the fourth year in a row and will spend at least one more week without linebacker Deion Jones (foot), whose coverage earned him a grade of 90.5 from Pro Football Focus while no other linebacker on the team has earned a grade higher than 65.7.
Criminally underused to start the season, Johnson busted out for 9-78-2 receiving line last week. With his career average yards per target sitting at a stellar 9.3, Johnson is easily Cleveland’s most efficient passing-game weapon. — Chris Raybon
Which team is healthier? Falcons
The Falcons are still one week away from welcoming back linebacker Deion Jones (groin) from injured reserve, but starting cornerback Robert Alford (ankle) appears to have a good shot at suiting up Sunday. Kicker Matt Bryant (hamstring) and Mohamed Sanu (hip) continue to nurse their ongoing injuries.
The Browns have a few more issues to worry about, as left tackle Desmond Harrison (illness) and tight end David Njoku (knee, ribs) are banged up on the offensive side of the ball.
Linebackers Jamie Collins (ankle) and Joe Schobert (hamstring) join cornerback Denzel Ward (hip) as injured defenders. No. 2 cornerback E.J. Gaines (concussion) and linebacker Christian Kirksey (hamstring) are each done for the season.
DFS edge: Jarvis Landry’s price tag has decreased $1,000 on DraftKings over the past two weeks as his fantasy production hasn’t been reliable. However, he’s still averaging 10.5 targets per game with Baker Mayfield at quarterback.
He’ll get a favorable matchup against slot CB Brian Poole this week, and Landry’s price decrease has resulted in a +3.48 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings — tied for the sixth-best mark among receivers in our FantasyLabs Models. — Justin Bailey
Bet to watch: Browns +6
This is a sneaky good matchup for the Browns. Chris did a great job of detailing above how Cleveland’s new-look offense can attack Atlanta’s weaknesses, so I won’t spend too much time on that.
The only thing I’ll add: Don’t be fooled into buying into a resurgent Falcons defense after it allowed only 34 combined points to the Redskins and Giants the past two weeks. Those offenses are trash.
Look at Atlanta’s results from Weeks 3-6 for a more accurate representation of its defense (37.5 ppg allowed) — at least until Jones comes back.
Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s focus on how the Browns defense can give the Falcons some problems.
Cleveland ranks second against the pass, according to Football Outsiders. The Falcons offense is elite in that area too (fourth overall), but it has done much of its damage at home against inferior pass defenses (Panthers, 20th; Saints 29th; Bengals, 16th; Bucs, 31st; and Giants, 27th).
The Browns present a much different challenge. They have a No. 1 corner (Ward), who, if healthy, can match up one-on-one with Julio. And they have a pass-rush (12th in adjusted sack rate) that can take advantage of an Atlanta O-line that’s allowed Ryan to be sacked more in three road games (12) than five home games (10).
Below-average O-lines don’t travel well, especially when they can’t lean on a decent run game (Atlanta ranks 22nd in rush DVOA).
The Browns are, of course, riding a four-game losing streak, but three of those games came against likely playoffs teams (Chargers, Steelers, Chiefs) and only one of them came under this new regime (a 37-21 loss to K.C. that you can chalk up to the Chiefs being #good).
I thought the opener of Falcons -3.5 was fair, but this has ballooned out of control. Be sure to shop around for the best number, as a few +6.5s popped up on Thursday evening. There should be more where that came from, given the lopsided public support for the Falcons. — Scott Miller
Betting odds: New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans
- Spread: Patriots -7
- Over/Under: 46.5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: CBS
Betting market: After opening with the Patriots as seven points favorites on Tuesday morning, it took about a half hour for sharp action to come in on the Titans +7.
The Pats are getting 85% of spread bets in this game and 81% of money. With the line between -6.5 and -7 at certain books, I expect the public to continue to hit on the Pats at -6.5, while sharp bettors will likely wait and see if they can get the Titans +7 while it’s available (check for updated data here). — Mark Gallant
Trends to know: Since 2003, the Patriots are 36-24-1 against the spread as road favorites in games Tom Brady has started, according to Bet Labs data.
But if the opposing team made the playoffs the year before, like the Titans, the record falls to 7-7 ATS. — John Ewing
Did you know? The Titans have one less day to prepare after playing on Monday night. Bill Belichick has gone 15-7 ATS against teams on a short week, including 10-2 ATS on the road. — Ewing
Biggest mismatch: Patriots pass defense vs. Titans offense
Even though the Titans disavowed their exotic smash mouth scheme in the offseason, they have the league’s second-highest run rate at 47.5% this season.
The Titans rank in the bottom three of most passing statistics, and they have a young, home-grown group of wide receivers — Corey Davis, Tajae Sharpe and Taywan Taylor — who are routinely ignored within the offense and largely incapable of winning in all but the cushiest of matchups.
The Titans don’t have that kind of matchup this week.
The Patriots rank second with a 90.9 Pro Football Focus coverage grade, and cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore (88.2) and Jason McCourty (80.8) both rank inside the top 15 at the position. Collectively, they’ve held opposing receivers to a 49.5% catch rate on 99 passes thrown their way.
The Titans could struggle to pass on the Patriots, and if they can’t pass, they have almost no chance of keeping pace with New England’s offense. — Matthew Freedman
Which team is healthier? Titans
The Patriots regularly list half of their starters as questionable, but the only players thought to be at risk of missing Sunday’s game are left tackle Trent Brown (illness), right guard Shaq Mason (calf), tight end Rob Gronkowski (ankle, back) and running back Sony Michel (knee).
All indications are that Michel will suit up for the first time since Week 7.
The Titans aren’t exactly 100%, either, as right tackle Jack Conklin (concussion) along with wide receivers Tajae Sharpe (ankle) and Taywan Taylor (foot) are looking on the doubtful side of things. The good news is the defense should welcome back linebacker Will Compton (hamstring).
DFS edge: Since the Titans played on Monday night, Dion Lewis is available at the Monday night discount on DraftKings, where he costs just $4,600.
He’s coming off a game where he saw 23 touches, and this game should set up well for him since the Titans are 6.5-point underdogs and Derrick Henry is useless in the passing game. His +3.99 projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings leads all running backs in our FantasyLabs Models. — Justin Bailey
Bet to watch: Patriots -6.5
Don’t overthink this one, people. Tennessee is off a nice win at Dallas, but the Titans have been a Jekyll-and-Hyde show all season.
They mix solid wins with tough losses. New England on the other hand is humming along, having scored more than 30 points in five of their past six games. Further, the Pats will likely get Michel back for this game, which should add another layer to their already potent offense.
An X-factor to consider is that Tennessee’s pass defense has been abysmal this season, particularly in the past few weeks. That secondary is anchored by former Patriot Malcolm Butler. The Patriots may be able to exploit this matchup since they know Butler so well.
Tennessee’s offense simply will not be able to score enough points to keep pace in this one, as they’ve scored fewer than 20 in three of their past four contests.
The Patriots will do Patriot things and continue to roll. — BlackJack Fletcher
Betting odds: Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
- Spread: Colts -2.5
- Over/Under: 46.5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: CBS
Betting market: The Colts opened at -3 (-130) at BookMaker and soon moved to -3.5. However, the line and juice has moved in Jacksonville’s favor since then. Bets are split, but the Jags are getting more of the money and have moved to +2.5 (-103) at the time of writing.
Trends to know: The Jags and Colts are each coming off a bye week. Since 2003, when two teams with 13 or more days between games play, the favorite has gone 18-12 against the spread, per our Bet Labs data. — John Ewing
The Jaguars are falling — and falling fast. Coming off a bye, this is getting close to must-win time after losing four consecutive games straight up and ATS.
History suggests the Jags are in a good spot to bounce back. Since 2003, teams that made the postseason the previous season and are coming off a four-game straight-up and ATS losing streak are 31-12 ATS (72.1%). — Evan Abrams
Sneaky storyline: The Colts just had their first back-to-back 200 yard rushing games in more than 30 years. Their success on the ground can be attributed to a much-improved and healthy offensive line that ranks second in the NFL in adjusted sack rate. — Stuckey
Biggest mismatch: Jaguars short-passing attack vs. Colts secondary
Blake Bortles should look a lot better this weekend against a very poor Colts pass defense that ranks 25th overall DVOA.
I think he will have plenty of success in the short-passing game, set up by play-action, which should thrive with the return of running back Leonard Fournette. This whole offense was constructed with Fournette as the focal point.
Bortles has struggled against zones at times in his career, which is primarily what he should see vs. Indy, but he should move the ball down the field with short, easy passes after Jacksonville establishes the run. (See Jacksonville’s gameplan in playoff games against Pittsburgh and New England last season.)
The Colts have really struggled to defend short passes, ranking 26th, per Football Outsiders. Indy also doesn’t blitz much, which has caused problems for Bortles this season.
It all starts with the return of Fournette. — Stuckey
Which team is healthier? Jaguars
Colts players have missed a league-high 205 combined games this season. They risk being without safety Mike Mitchell (calf) and tight end Erik Swoope (knee) this week, while running back Marlon Mack (foot) and free safety Malik Hooker (hip) are banged up, as well.
As Stuckey mentioned, the Jaguars are expected to welcome back Fournette (hamstring), but the secondary could be without each of A.J. Bouye (calf, out) and D.J. Hayden (toe). Stud linebacker Telvin Smith (shoulder) should also be considered questionable after being downgraded to a limited participant in practice Thursday.
DFS edge: The Jaguars deployed Ramsey in shadow coverage against T.Y. Hilton in each of these games in 2017, and the Jaguars’ No. 1 corner even spent an average of seven snaps in the slot.
Hilton was largely held in check last season vs. Jacksonville with Jacoby Brissett under center, although he did slip away for a 40-yard touchdown.
- Hilton in Week 7 vs. Ramsey: 2 receptions, 27 yards, 0 TD (8 targets)
- Hilton in Week 13 vs. Ramsey: 3 receptions, 51 yards, 1 TD (6 targets)
The Colts offense is certainly light-years ahead of anything we saw last season, and the unit is set up well against a banged-up Jaguars’ secondary that could be without cornerbacks A.J. Bouye (calf), Tyler Patmon (neck) and D.J. Hayden (toe).
Bet to watch: Jaguars +3
This pick starts and ends with the Jaguars’ running game and the health of Fournette, T.J. Yeldon and Carlos Hyde, mixed with the (hopefully) smart play-calling of offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett.
The Colts’ rush defense is right in the middle of the pack in the NFL according to Football Outsiders, but over the past two weeks, Indy has allowed 238 yards on the ground and 5.8 yards per carry to the Bills and Raiders. That includes nine rushes of 10-plus yards.
If the Jags get the running game going, they will open up the passing game through play-action, which has not worked in 2018 (6.4 yards per attempt) as well as it did in 2017 (9.2 yards per attempt) for Bortles.
It will also be important for Jacksonville to start fast and not get behind by too much early. Over the past two seasons, the Jaguars are 3-15 straight up (and have lost nine of their past 10) in games where they’ve trailed at any point.
Look for the Jags to control the clock and occasionally create some pressure against Andrew Luck with their talented pass-rush.
Be sure to shop around for the best number, as there were still +3s posted around the market at the time of writing. — Evan Abrams
Betting odds: Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
- Spread: Bears -7
- Over/Under: 44
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: FOX
Betting market: The line is not uniform whatsoever across the market, which is a bit strange considering the big difference between 6.5 and 7. At the time of writing 66% of bettors like the Bears, who have moved from -6.5 to -7 at BookMaker, but from -7 to -6.5 at Pinnacle.
Weather report: This is expected to be the windiest game of the week, with wind speeds average about 13 mph. As is the case across the rest of middle America, temperatures will be chilly and should sit in the high 30s for most of the game. —Mark Gallant
Trends to know: According to our Bet Labs data, Stafford is 24-39-2 against (38.1%, -16.2 units) in his career against teams with a record above .500. Unsurprisingly that is the worst mark of any quarterback since 2009. — Evan Abrams
The Bears have allowed 19 total points in their last two games — granted they played the Bills and Jets — and are allowing 19.1 points per game this season. That looks good but it’s actually been profitably to fade teams that have allowed 10 points or fewer in consecutive games.
Since 2003, those teams are 97-114-6 ATS (46%) in that spot, losing bettors 21.7 units. — Evan Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Detroit’s defensive line vs. Chicago’s offensive line
I think the Lions have a good edge in the trenches against the Bears. Many might think the opposite after the Lions offensive line gave up 10 sacks last week, but I think that was more of an anomaly for a unit that ranked in the top three going into Week 10 in QB pressure percentage and still ranks 15th in adjusted sack rate after last week. I’d actually expect an inspired effort from Detroit’s front after that abomination against the Vikings.
I actually want to focus on the other side of the ball, though. Detroit’s D-line has the No. 1 Adjusted Sack Rate in the NFL — the Bears rank 10th for comparison — and now that it added Damon “Snacks” Harrison and have Ziggy Ansah back, the Lions are finally fully healthy up front and will now be capable against the run.
I think Detroit will have an advantage at almost every position against a subpar Chicago offensive line that doesn’t get much of a push in the run game (24th in Adjusted Line Yards) and has been average in pass protection.
I think the Lions’ defensive line will control the line of scrimmage, holding its own against Chicago’s run and pressuring Mitch Trubisky into mistakes. — Stuckey
Which team is healthier? Bears
This is perhaps the week’s healthiest matchup. The Bears are expected to welcome back wide receiver Allen Robinson (groin) and pass-rusher Khalil Mack (ankle), while wide receiver Taylor Gabriel (leg) isn’t thought to be dealing with a serious injury.
The Lions risk playing without stud cornerback Darius Slay (knee), but running backs Kerryon Johnson (ankle) and LeGarrette Blount (knee) are each tentatively expected to suit up on Sunday after practicing in a limited fashion all week.
DFS edge: Jordan Howard is an intriguing tournament play this week as the Bears are presently 7-point home favorites against the Lions. Howard has played well this season when the game script works in his favor, and that could be the case this week.
Overall, Howard leads the Bears with 31% of their red-zone opportunities, and a robust 62.5% of their red-zone carries. He presently owns a 77% Leverage Rating on FanDuel in our FantasyLabs Models. —Justin Bailey
Bet to watch: Under 44
We already know how dynamic Chicago’s defense is, and Stuckey made a great point above regarding how the return of Ansah and addition of Harrison will help a Lions defense that struggled to start the season.
On the other side of the ball, both teams are in no hurry to run plays, with Detroit ranking 21st and Chicago 27th in Football Outsiders’ seconds per play statistic.
And finally, the forecast is calling for steady 13 mph winds, which certainly won’t help the passing game for either team. According to Bet Labs, unders are 448-355-10 (55.8%) in NFL games played in double-digit winds since 2003.
Grab under 44 before this total approaches the key number of 43. — PJ Walsh
Betting odds: Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Spread: Buccaneers -3
- Over/Under: 51
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: FOX
Betting market: After opening at a pick ‘em, this line has gradually moved towards Tampa Bay since Sunday night. At the time of writing the Bucs were getting just more than 50% of bets, but 80%+ of the money, which has helped them move all the way to -3. The Sports Insights’ line predictor tool believes that they’ll move to -3.5, too (see live betting data here). —Mark Gallant
Trends to know: Alex Smith is not known as a gunslinger. In games against opposing quarterbacks who can chuck it, Smith has struggled to cover.
According to our Bet Labs data, Smith is 5-10-2 against the spread in the regular season when facing an opposing offense that is averaging at least 300 passing yards per game. Tampa Bay leads the league in passing, averaging 357 yards per game. — John Ewing
As John noted, Smith and the Redskins face a high-flying Bucs team averaging 28.6 points per game. In Smith’s career, he has faced a team averaging at least 28 PPG on 13 different occasions and is 5-8-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 4 PPG. — Evan Abrams
If the Redskins get down early, there may be an opportunity to profit on Washington in the second half.
In his career, Smith is 90-73-10 (55.2%, +12.6 units) against the second-half spread. He is the third-most profitable 2H QB in the NFL behind Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson.
Whether Smith is winning (46-39-2) or losing (45-35-8) at the half, he has been profitable to bettors in the second stanza. — Evan Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Buccaneers’ wide receivers vs. Redskins’ secondary
Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin are perhaps the league’s most dynamic trio of outside receivers, and they have a great matchup. Although the Redskins rank eighth with a Pro Football Focus coverage grade of 77.7, they will likely be without cornerback Quinton Dunbar (shin), who missed Weeks 7-8 and exited Week 9 early after aggravating his leg injury.
Replacing him on the outside will be a combination of Greg Stroman and Danny Johnson, seventh-round and undrafted rookies, respectively, who have allowed a cumulative 15-252-3 receiving line on 22 targets and 142 coverage snaps.
Whenever Evans, D-Jax or Godwin lines up against Stroman or Johnson, the Bucs will have the potential to hit a big play. — Matthew Freedman
Which team is healthier? Bucs
The Bucs aren’t 100% healthy — they sent a bunch of defenders to IR this season — but the only questionable players thought to be at risk of missing Sunday’s matchup are running back Ronald Jones (hamstring), cornerback M.J. Stewart (leg) and defensive end Vinny Curry (ankle).
Meanwhile, the Redskins are arguably the league’s most-injured team. Running back Chris Thompson (ribs, out) will join Paul Richardson (shoulder, IR) on the sideline, while Jamison Crowder (ankle) and Jordan Reed (neck) didn’t manage to get in a full practice on Wednesday or Thursday.
Left tackle Trent Williams (thumb) and right tackle Morgan Moses (knee) could join starting guards Shawn Lauvao (knee, IR) and Brandon Scherff (pec, IR) on the bench.
DFS edge: Evans has largely worked as one of the league’s most-productive receivers this season. Overall, he ranks among the league’s top-10 receivers with 18.45 PPR points per game (10th), 786 receiving yards (5th) and 1,118 air yards (4th).
A potential shadow date with Josh Norman awaits Evans, but that didn’t stop Julio Jones (7-121-1) and Odell Beckham Jr. (8-136-0) from having big games vs. the Redskins.
Having FitzMagic under center also works in Evans’ favor, as the WR has posted an average 5-71-0.3 receiving line with Jameis Winston at quarterback compared to a 5.4-93-0.6 line with Fitzpatrick since 2017.
Bet to watch: Over 51
Buccaneers overs just might be my favorite bet each week for the rest of the season.
The Bucs have a killer combination of high-scoring offense (28.6 points per game) and exploitable defense (34.4 points per game allowed), which has driven an NFL-high seven of their games to the over.
The Bucs are also banged up on defense. Middle linebacker Kwon Alexander (knee, injured reserve) is out, as is backup middle linebacker Jack Cichy (ankle, IR). In the secondary, strong safety Chris Conte (knee, IR) and cornerback Vernon Hargreaves (shoulder, IR) are out. Slot corner M.J. Steward (foot) missed Week 9 and is questionable to play.
With two exploitable defenses, I like both offenses to score enough combined points to hit the over. — Matthew Freedman
Betting odds: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
- Spread: Jets -7
- Over/Under: 36.5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: CBS
Betting market: In terms of ticket count, this is currently Sunday’s least-bet game on the board. Bets are split, but the Bills went from +8 to +7 pretty early in the week and moved as low as +6.5 at some books after it was announced that Sam Darnold wouldn’t be playing.
Trends to know: The last time the Jets were listed as a favorite of seven or more points was Week 14 in 2015 (-8 vs. Titans).
Since 2003, teams that have won fewer than 40% of their games, like the Jets, and are favored by seven or more points have gone 54-63-2 (46%) against the spread, according to our Bet Labs data. — John Ewing
The Bills are failing to cover the spread by 6.4 PPG this season, tied for the third-worst margin in the NFL. Teams that are failing to cover by at least six points per game, cover the spread at a rate of 55.1% when listed as the underdog, including 156-113-1 ATS (58%) when listed as an underdog of a touchdown or more. — Evan Abrams
Both the Bills and Raiders enter Week 10 having lost their past three games by an average of more than three touchdowns per game. Teams in this spot are 44-35-1 ATS (55.7%) in their next game, profiting bettors 6.6 units, including 39-27-1 ATS (59.1%) as an underdog, profiting bettors 9.8 units.
When looking at the home and road splits in this spot, the distinction is glaring:
- At home: 22-24-1 ATS (-3 units)
- On road: 22-9 ATS (+11.6 units)
- Neutral site: 0-2 ATS (-2 units)
As a reminder, the Bills are playing on the road this week. — Abrams
Did you know? There have only been 15 other NFL games since the 2012 season to feature an over/under of 37 or fewer points. The over went 9-6 in those games. — Ewing
Which team is healthier? Jets (barely)
It’s unclear who will start under center for the Bills with Josh Allen (elbow) and Derek Anderson (concussion) uncertain for Sunday. Tight end Charles Clay (hamstring), backup running back Chris Ivory (shoulder) and first-round linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (concussion) also run the risk of missing Sunday’s game.
The Jets aren’t in much better shape, but they’re expected to welcome back No. 1 cornerback Trumaine Johnson (quad) in addition to linebacker Kevin Pierre-Louis (foot).
Josh McCown will start in place of rookie Sam Darnold (foot), but might not have the services of starting receivers Robby Anderson (ankle) or Quincy Enunwa (ankle).
Biggest mismatch: Jets secondary vs. Bills passing game
The Jets are hopeful to welcome back No. 1 cornerback Trumaine Johnson (quad) this week, but they probably don’t need him against a Bills offense that hasn’t scored more than 13 points since pulling off a miracle in Minnesota all the way back in Week 3.
DFS edge: It sounds like Allen (elbow) might not be ready to return, so the Jets will draw Derek Anderson (concussion) if he’s cleared from the protocol and if Allen is ultimately ruled out.
Otherwise, it’ll be Nathan Peterman.
Either way, it won’t matter. Defenses are averaging 16.33 DraftKings points per game with a +6.77 Plus/Minus and an absurd 77.8% Consistency Rating against the Bills this season, per our FantasyLabs trends tool.
Priced at $3,400 on DraftKings, the Jets defense is the second-cheapest unit to face the Bills this season. Be sure to check Friday injury reports for the final word on the starting quarterback — Justin Bailey
Bet to watch: Bills +7
Buffalo’s offense (10.4 PPG) is comically bad. The team hasn’t scored more than 13 points in a game since Week 3 and has managed to score only eight touchdowns this season. For context, the Rams and Saints combined to score 10 touchdowns in their Week 9 alone.
But bad offenses are often undervalued, especially after a blowout loss, which the Bills suffered against the Bears in Week 9, getting blown out 41-9.
Since 2003, teams following a blowout loss that score fewer than 20 points per game, like Buffalo, have gone 83-55-4 (60%) ATS as underdogs in their next game. I like the Bills here. — Ewing
Betting odds: Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders
- Spread: Chargers -10
- Over/Under: 50
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- TV channel: FOX
Betting market: With 82% of bets as of writing (see live data here), the Chargers are one of the most popular bets of the week. You can’t blame bettors for fading the Raiders, though, following their abysmal loss to Nick Mullens, a quarterback who had never thrown an NFL pass before.
This line moved briefly to -9.5 on Monday, but it went back to -10 on Monday night and hasn’t changed since. — Mark Gallant
Trends to know: Since 2003, teams that have won 20% or fewer of their games (like the 1-7 Raiders), have gone 202-159-10 (56%) against the spread when listed as underdogs of seven or more points. — John Ewing
The Chargers are rolling. They’ve won five straight games for the first time since 2014, winning the turnover battle in each of the five wins.
According to our Bet Labs data, teams to win at least five consecutive games while winning the turnover battle in each are only 6-13-1 ATS (31.6%) when listed as the favorite, losing bettors 7.2 units since 2003.
That includes 1-8-1 ATS since 2012, failing to cover the spread by 10.4 points per game. — Evan Abrams
The Raiders have lost their past three games by more than three touchdowns on average. Teams in that spot are 44-35-1 ATS (55.7%) in their next game, profiting bettors 6.6 units. That includes 39-27-1 ATS (59.1%) as an underdog (+9.8 units).
When looking at the home and road splits in this spot, the distinction is glaring.
- At home: 22-24-1 ATS (-3 units)
- On road: 22-9 ATS (+11.6 units)
- Neutral site: 0-2 ATS (-2 units)
As a reminder, the Raiders are playing at home this week. — Abrams
Did you know? Jon Gruden’s Raiders are 1-1 straight-up and 2-0 ATS with a +2 point differential in two games against … Vance Joseph, the league’s worst ATS coach, and Hue Jackson, who held those honors before he was fired by the Browns.
In their other six games, the Raiders are 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS with an -113 point differential. — Chris Raybon
Biggest mismatch: Chargers offense vs. Raiders defense
If the goal of a defense is to protect its end zone, then the Raiders are like 11 sleeping mall cops. They’re being lit up for 31.5 points per game, the second-worst in the league.
I blew it by backing them against the Mullens-led 49ers, underestimating how well any quarterback can play with a clean pocket. The Raiders’ seven sacks are dead last in the league, and as a result, so are their 8.6 net yards per pass allowed. They’re also allowing 4.8 yards per carry to opposing run games.
Meanwhile, Philip Rivers is efficient as ever. He’s one of only four quarterbacks averaging more than nine yards per pass attempt. And Melvin Gordon treats every week like he’s rostered himself on DraftKings, averaging 124.0 yards from scrimmage with 10 total touchdowns in seven games. — Raybon
Which team is healthier? Raiders
The Chargers still won’t have stud defensive end Joey Bosa (foot), and fellow edge defender Darius Philon (ankle) looks questionable.
That’s still more adversity than the Raiders are expected to deal with, as Doug Martin (hip) seems to be the only player at real risk of missing action on Sunday.
DFS edge: Rivers has thrown multiple touchdowns in every game this season while orchestrating the Chargers’ 11th-ranked scoring offense.
Sadly, No. 1 receiver Keenan Allen (1 TD) hasn’t managed to find the end zone nearly as often as Tyrell Williams (5) and Mike Williams (5).
Still, Allen is positioned well against the Raiders’ bottom-two defense in Football Outsiders’ overall and pass DVOA. He’s shredded the unit for 8-90-0, 9-133-1, 5-45-0, 9-89-0, 8-63-0, 3-27-0, 3-26-1 and 6-115-1 lines in eight career games against Oakland.
Bet to watch: Raiders +10
After getting blown out by Mullens and the 49ers, only 18% of bettors are on the Raiders at +10.
NFL home underdogs getting at least a touchdown have historically covered at a 55% rate, and they have performed even better when getting fewer than 20% of bets, going 40-26-3 (61.5%) ATS.
Oh wait, I said the exact same thing last week about the Browns, and they made me look like a fool.
Back on that terrible home dog wagon, I guess. I can’t resist. — Gallant
Betting odds: Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
- Spread: Rams -9.5
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV channel: CBS
Betting market: Getting nearly 50% of bets at the time of writing (see live data here), the Seahawks are one of the trendiest underdogs of the week.
Meanwhile, the over/under has dropped from 51.5 to 50.5 since opening behind 40% of bets and 53% of dollars on the under. — Mark Gallant
Did you know? Wilson has started 104 regular-season games since being drafted in 2012, compiling an impressive 74-30 record. Of those 30 losses, only two came by more than 10 points — although one was to the Rams last season.
Over that span, however, the Rams and Seahawks have played a lot of very close games. In fact, nine of their 13 matchups since 2012 have been decided by one possession, including their meeting in Week 5. — Stuckey
Jared Goff is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS (-2 units) against the Seahawks. His five interceptions and five fumbles against them are his most against any team, and they’re the only opponent he’s failed to cover against three times. — Evan Abrams
Did you know? The Rams are coming off their first loss of the regular season. According to our data at Bet Labs, teams with a win percentage of 75% or higher that are coming off a loss in November or later have gone 59-49 ATS (54.6%) since 2003.
The Rams face a fierce Seahawks defense that has given Goff fits in the past. When teams face a defense (like Seattle’s) that’s allowing fewer than 21 points per game in this spot, they’re 33-22 ATS (60%), profiting bettors 9.4 units. — Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Rams’ rush offense vs. Seahawks’ rush defense
The Seahawks held Todd Gurley to only 77 yards on 22 rushes (3.5 yards per carry) in Week 5, but the Rams’ offensive line has taken its performance to a higher level in recent weeks.
Overall, the Rams (5.57) join the Colts (5.1) as the only offensive lines averaging more than five adjusted line yards per rush.
The Seahawks’ 15th-ranked defensive line has yielded a mediocre 4.18 adjusted line yards per rush, giving Gurley the week’s largest advantage in combined adjusted line yards per carry. — Ian Hartitz
Which team is healthier? Rams
The Rams don’t even have a player listed on their injury report.
The Seahawks don’t appear to be dealing with serious injuries to Doug Baldwin (groin), linebacker K.J. Wright (knee) or Chris Carson (hip), but all three should be monitored until kickoff. The statuses of right guard D.J. Fluker (leg) and safety Bradley McDougald (knee) will also be worth a look on Sunday.
DFS edge: The Rams have asked Marcus Peters to shadow in consecutive weeks. Pro Football Focus’ 106th-ranked cornerback has accordingly allowed Davante Adams (5-133-0) and Michael Thomas (12-211-1) to go off.
Peters is one of only three corners who has allowed at least six touchdowns this season, one of which came at the hands of Tyler Lockett in Week 5.
The Seahawks’ pass-averse offense has featured similar target distribution between Baldwin (17%), Lockett (15%) and David Moore (17%) since Baldwin returned in Week 4. Yet Moore ($3,900) remains significantly cheaper with lower-projected ownership than Baldwin ($5,200) and Lockett ($4,800). — Hartitz
Bet to watch: Seahawks +9.5
One could argue that this is a semi-flat spot for the Rams after an emotional loss in New Orleans, but this is a division matchup between two teams that don’t like each other.
The Rams should be up for this game (although they don’t have a great home-field advantage). This is simply too many points for a scrappy Seahawks team that’s not only playing to exact revenge for an earlier season loss to the Rams (in a game that Seattle should have won), but that is playing for its season.
After an 0-2 start, Seattle has found its identity as a run-first team, which really fits its offensive line that ranks in the top 10 in Football Outsiders’ Power Success and Stuffed Rates. The Seahawks are getting great push up front and the Rams can be run on: They allow 4.7 yards per rush (24th in the NFL).
That commitment to the run sets Wilson up in the passing game with an underrated group of big-play receivers. I expect a bounce-back performance from Russ after one of the worst games of his career last week against the Chargers. (In case you’re curious, Wilson went 13-of-21 for 198 yards and three touchdowns in the Week 5 matchup against the Rams.)
The Rams’ secondary remains vulnerable without Aqib Talib and a less-than-100% Peters.
Seattle’s new pieces on the defensive side have developed faster than anybody expected and the unit is playing at a more-than-respectable level. That said, the Rams will still get theirs. I just think the Seahawks can keep up and hang around. — Stuckey
Betting odds: Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers
- Spread: Packers -10
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV channel: CBS
Betting market: The Packers are getting all the love with 80% of bets and 83% of dollars as of writing (see live data here), moving from -9 to -10 since opening.
The fact that Brock Osweiler was again named the starting quarterback definitely doesn’t help the Dolphins’ case, but he has gone 2-2 since taking over for the injured Ryan Tannehill.
This game has been completely devoid of sharp action. — Mark Gallant
Weather report: The Dolphins will need to bring their winter coats to Green Bay, as temperatures will start in the mid-30s and drop into the low-30s throughout the course of the game. Wind is not expected to be a factor. — Gallant
Trends to know: Aaron Rodgers is 14-4-1 (77.8%) against the spread when facing opponents over .500 in games with temperatures of 35 degrees or colder, earning bettors 9.2 units and making him the most profitable quarterback in this spot since 2003. — Evan Abrams
The Packers are coming off back-to-back losses and are now double-digit favorites. According to our Bet Labs data, teams on a losing streak that are favored by 10 or more points have gone 20-24 ATS since 2003. — John Ewing
Biggest mismatch: Packers in the trenches vs. Dolphins in the trenches
In a mismatch of epic proportions at quarterback, Green Bay should enjoy an enormous advantage in the trenches.
Rodgers should have all day to throw, which spells doom for Miami. The Dolphins can’t generate much of a pass rush as a result of injuries and offseason departures along the defensive line. Their defense ranks 29th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate.
Meanwhile, Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari has been one of the best in the league, posting a Pro Football Focus grade of 89.1. He should neutralize the Dolphins’ most consistent defensive lineman, Robert Quinn,
Running back Aaron Jones, who’s solid at picking up blitzes, should also have a big day on the ground against a defense that allows 4.4 yards per carry.
On the other side of the ball, Green Bay’s defensive front — which ranks fourth in adjusted sack rate — should eat up an absolutely decimated Miami offensive line.
Interior linemen Kenny Clark and Mike Daniels have been the strength of the Packers’ defense this season. They have plus-matchups inside against a number Dolphins backups.
Things could get even worse on the outside with two injured tackles. Laremy Tunsil and Ja’Wuan James are both listed as questionable. And it doesn’t help that if Miami falls behind and needs Kenyan Drake to help the passing game that Drake has struggled with pass protection.
Green Bay should be able to generate pressure up the middle and on the edge to disrupt the entire Miami offense. That will ultimately mask some of the questions the Packers have on the back end with the recent departures at safety and with cornerback Kevin King listed as doubtful. — Stuckey
Which team is healthier? Packers
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is locked into three-receiver sets alongside Davante Adams and Randall Cobb (hamstring) now that Geronimo Allison (core, IR) is out for the foreseeable future.
The defense isn’t 100% with King (hamstring), linebacker Blake Martinez (ankle) and Daniels (shoulder) banged up.
Still, the Packers are better off than a Dolphins team that will once again be without Tannehill (shoulder).
Tunsil (knee) and James (knee) are shaping up as game-time decisions, while wide receivers Jakeem Grant (Achilles) and Kenny Stills (groin) haven’t been able to practice fully all week.
DFS edge: Valdes-Scantling is in play on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he’s especially appealing on FanDuel, where he possesses a 94% Bargain Rating and a +2.86 Projected Plus/Minus. — Justin Bailey
Bet to watch: Packers -10
I rarely even think about laying double-digit points in the NFL, but I’ll step out and do so here.
Can you believe that the Dolphins enter this matchup as the team with a winning record? They have to be the most fraudulent 5-4 team in NFL history. Their four regulation wins came against the Jets (twice), Raiders and Titans. And their victory over Tennessee was when Blaine Gabbert played the majority of the game under center.
It doesn’t get worse than that for a Miami team that ranks 31st in net yards per drive (-9.15).
This is a good spot to buy the Packers, who are coming home (where they thrive) after two tough losses to two of the better teams in the NFL.
I also see way too many folks writing off Rodgers and this Packers team, completely ignoring the countless examples of them turning it on in November and December:
- 2009: Started 4-4, finished 11-5
- 2010: Started 3-3, finished 10-6
- 2012: Started 3-3, finished 11-5
- 2014: Started 5-3, finished 12-4
- 2016: Started 4-6, finished 10-6
It’s also a perfect time to fade a fraudulent Dolphins team headed to Lambeau Field in the November cold. Plus, Miami just isn’t constructed to expose Green Bay’s primary weaknesses on either side of the ball.
If I’m going to bet a 10-point favorite, it might as well be Rodgers at home vs. Brock Osweiler. —Stuckey
Betting odds: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
- Spread: Eagles -7
- Over/Under: 43
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV channel: NBC
Betting market: The Eagles were available at -6.5 on Tuesday and part of Wednesday before books had enough and moved the line up -7.
More than 80% of bets and dollars are on Philly as of writing (see live data here), but now that Dallas is +7, I expect both numbers to drop a bit. Whether the Cowboys get enough action to move back to +6.5 remains to be seen. — Mark Gallant
Weather report: Temperatures will dip into the mid-30s by kickoff, but don’t read too much into that. The wind will be only 4 mph, so the weather shouldn’t impact the game too much. — Gallant
Trends to know: The Cowboys are 2-14-1 against the spread on a short weeks — with six or fewer days to prepare — under Jason Garrett, according to our Bet Labs data. They’ve failed to cover 12 straight in this situation, including one push.
Dallas is 0-4 ATS against a division opponent in this spot, failing to cover by an average of 11.1 points. — John Ewing
Most of that damage has come in the second half of games. Dallas is 4-13 against the second-half spread on short rest under Garrett, failing to cover by 7.1 points per game.
On the other side, Doug Pederson’s Eagles are 6-1 straight-up and ATS (+4.8 units) when facing teams coming off a short week, covering by 8.7 points per game.
He’s been the most profitable NFL coach when facing an opponent on short rest since becoming head coach of the Eagles in 2016. — Evan Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Eagles’ pass rush vs. Cowboys’ offensive line
Dak Prescott could be in trouble considering the Cowboys’ offensive line ranks 31st in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate.
Which team is healthier? Eagles
The Eagles won’t get Darren Sproles back after he re-aggravated his hamstring injury during Wednesday’s practice. Corey Clement (illness) along with cornerbacks Sidney Jones (hamstring) and Jalen Mills (foot) also aren’t guaranteed to suit up.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys aren’t expected to have difference-making linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring) for 4-6 weeks, while defensive linemen Randy Gregory (knee) and David Irving (ankle) could miss another game.
The offense isn’t expected to have left guard Connor Williams (knee) or wide receiver Tavon Austin (groin), although tight end Geoff Swaim (knee) appears close to a return.
DFS edge: It remains to be seen how much Golden Tate could eat into Zach Ertz’s target share, but it’s hard to ignore Ertz’s 10.5 targets per game so far.
The Cowboys are also allowing 7.2 targets per game to opposing tight ends, and Ertz projects the best among all skill positions on both sides of this matchup, other than Elliott.
Bet to watch: Under 43
Philly ranks 21st in points per game (22.3) with Dallas (19.3) even worse off at 26th. According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, these two teams struggle to move the ball through the air, with the Eagles’ passing efficiency ranking only 20th in the NFL and the Cowboys at 28th.
But what really makes the under interesting is how slowly both offenses run plays. Per Football Outsiders’ pace stats, Philly ranks 26th in seconds per play while Dallas is even slower, ranking 28th.
I expect a slow game with few explosive offensive plays, which bodes well for the under. — PJ Walsh
Editor’s note: The opinions on these games are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.