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Zach Ertz Player Prop: Expert Pick for Seahawks vs Cardinals

Zach Ertz Player Prop: Expert Pick for Seahawks vs Cardinals article feature image
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Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Ertz.

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Zach Ertz Receiving Yards

Prop Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Matchup Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Day, Time Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Best Book FanDuel

The return of DeAndre Hopkins has done wonders for Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense. A big test against the surprisingly good Seahawks is in store, and the markets are undervaluing Zach Ertz.

The Cardinals face man coverage 23.3% of the time, which ranks 27th according to Pro Football Focus. Ertz’s target percentage jumps from 17.5% to 61.4% when playing against a zone-coverage scheme.

The most advantageous matchup for Ertz will be against Seattle’s linebackers.

He will likely line up against Jordyn Brooks, an excellent tackler who holds Pro Football Focus’ lowest coverage grade (34.9, minimum of 20 snaps). No wonder the Seahawks allow the most receiving yards vs. opposing tight ends!

The Cardinals backfield is not at 100%, so Murray should look Ertz’s way as a safety valve in the middle of the field. According to the Football Outsiders, the Seahawks are 27th in DVOA in directional passes made in this direction.

The Cardinals’ 25.5 implied team total ranks sixth-highest in FantasyLabs’ model, so there should be a lot of drives in this game. Ertz has exceeded 70 receiving yards in four regular-season games against Seattle, and all tight ends except Ross Dwelley have reached at least 40 yards vs. the Seahawks.

I cannot wait to see how this game plays out and love the clear advantage Ertz has — 40-plus receiving yards is very hittable today.

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