The St. Louis Blues (14-15-8) and Tampa Bay Lightning (19-13-3) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EST at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Fla. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Lightning are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5. The Lightning are a 70-cent favorite to win outright, while the Blues are priced at 31-cents to pull off the upset at Fanatics Markets.
Let's get into my Blues vs. Lightning predictions and NHL picks.
Blues vs. Lightning Odds, Pick
- Blues vs. Lightning Spread: Lightning -1.5 (47-cents), Blues +1.5 (56-cents)
- Blues vs. Lightning Over/Under: 5.5 (53-cents / 49-cents)
- Blues vs. Lightning Moneyline: Blues 31-cents, Lightning 70-cents
Blues vs. Lightning Preview
St. Louis Blues
The standings suggest that the Blues are in the hunt for a playoff spot, but I haven’t seen a more sorry squad than them.
Apologies if that was too harsh, but it’s true.
The short-term and even long-term outlook doesn’t look too promising. Currently, Jordan Kyrou, Dylan Holloway, Jimmy Snuggerud and Nick Bjugstad are all on IR.
It’s no surprise either that Robert Thomas is their leading scorer, but behind him is defenseman Justin Faulk, who has nine goals already – on pace to smash his career high.
In the month of December, St. Louis is playing to a ninth-worst 47.13 xGF%, and is getting clubbed defensively with a 2.85 xGA/60.
Not only that, but the goaltending has been a lost cause. Perhaps if Jordan Binnington played semi-decently, the Blues would be in better shape. But Binnington has a terrible .873 SV% and a league-worst -8.7 GSAx.
Joel Hofer, on the other hand, has actually been playing a lot better. Over the course of the past 10 games, Hofer has played to a 5.8 GSAx and a .920 SV%.
From the looks of it, Hofer has gotten the bulk of the starts since the start of December, so I’d bank on him assuming the crease.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning have been extremely bipolar this season.
They started slow, got hot, and are now back to where they started. Over the past 10 games, they’ve gone 3-6-1.
The usual suspects in Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel have been everything and more, both averaging over a point per game, but after losing key players like captain Victor Hedman, Erik Cernak and Brandon Hagel to IR, it’s certainly testing Tampa’s depth.
But there are two glaring questions entering this contest. Firstly, where did Darren Raddysh come from? The four-year pro is having one of the best seasons out of all defensemen right now, about to destroy his career high in goals, assists, and points.
Secondly, what’s going on with Brayden Point?
Granted, Point has landed on the scoresheet five out of the last six games, but these past six games nearly accounted for the majority of his point total.
In that span, he had eight points, and for the season, he has only 19. So what happened prior? He did spend a few games on IR, but is that the only reason for the slow start? His play will be heavily monitored moving forward.
I believe we’ll see Andrei Vasilevskiy take the net, who missed a good chunk of games earlier. Vasilevskiy will continue to be one of the league’s best until he’s not.
He’s had a down year all things considered, but a .913 SV% and a 7.1 GSAx in the last 10 games is nothing to sneeze at.
Blues vs. Lightning Prediction
This will be the last game for both of these teams before the holiday break, and boy, do they need it.
I’m not feeling great about either of them, which is why I’m going to target the over here.
You can go any which way here. If Hofer is starting, as well as Vasilevskiy, you have a legitimate reason why the under is a viable play.
However, I think Tampa’s big dogs have the ability to exploit St. Louis’ incompetent defense. The Blues have been averaging 3.1 goals allowed in their past 10 games on the road, while Tampa has been scoring 2.9 in the past 10 games at home.
So my projection has this going to six goals, and I think that’s more than reasonable. Let’s ride with the over here.
Pick: Over 5.5
