The Boston Bruins (38-23-8) and Detroit Red Wings (38-23-8) will face off in a critical Atlantic Division showdown Saturday evening. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Mich. The game will be broadcast live on ABC.
The Red Wings are priced at +200 to cover the puck-line (-1.5), with the over/under set at 5.5 (-130o / +110u). The Red Wings are a -125 favorite to win outright, while the Bruins are +105 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Bruins vs. Red Wings predictions and NHL picks.
Bruins vs. Red Wings Odds, Pick
| Bruins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -250 | 5.5 -135o / 114u | +105 |
| Red Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +205 | 5.5 -135o / 114u | -125 |
- Bruins vs. Red Wings Spread: Red Wings -1.5 (+200), Bruins +1.5 (-245)
- Bruins vs. Red Wings Over/Under: 5.5 (-130o / +110u)
- Bruins vs. Red Wings Moneyline: Bruins +105, Red Wings -125
Bruins vs. Red Wings Preview
Boston Bruins
In earning 13 points from their last ten games, the Bruins' recent results have not necessarily been poor, but the Columbus Blue Jackets, Ottawa Senators, and Philadelphia Flyers have all been on fire and have gained ground in the playoff chase as a result. It's becoming increasingly unlikely that either the Bruins or the Red Wings will make the playoffs, and with both teams tied with 84 points through 69 games, this matchup offers a highly significant four-point swing.
Throughout the last ten games, the Bruins have held a 47.54% expected goal share and have generated only 27.79 shots against per 60. They have scored 2.90 goals per game and allowed 2.80 goals against per game. Five matchups during that span have required overtime, and excluding empty netters, eight of those games have been one-goal affairs.
The Bruins did manage a completely convincing win on home ice Thursday over the Winnipeg Jets, and there was one noteworthy development from that matchup as 2020 17th overall pick Lukas Reichel made his Bruins debut. Reichel has become somewhat of an afterthought after a turbulent start to his career, but he made a great debut for his new side, scoring a goal and an assist while playing on the third line alongside Morgan Geekie and Elias Lindholm.
While his goal came after a highly fortuitous bounce, Reichel skated well and was highly involved all evening, adding a new element to a unit that had been struggling.
At the time of writing, Jeremy Swayman has not been confirmed as the Bruins' starting goaltender, but it's safe to assume he will get the start given the importance of this matchup. Swayman holds a +24.8 GSAx rating and a .906 save percentage across 46 appearances this season.
Detroit Red Wings
In each of the previous two seasons, the Red Wings have been close to ending their lengthy playoff drought, but have missed out after struggling down the stretch. With a record of 4-4-2 over the last ten games, it's become a much more realistic possibility that we may see the same narrative play out for a third straight season.
The loss of Captain Dylan Larkin has been a key reason for the dropoff, though most teams are dealing with at least one significant injury this time of year. The Red Wings did get one important piece back Thursday as Andrew Copp returned in a critical win, and Copp scored a goal and played 18:19.
For a second straight season, GM Steve Yzerman was not overly aggressive at the trade deadline, as he ultimately only ended up acquiring veteran defender Justin Faulk. Faulk has played on the second role alongside Ben Chiarot as expected, and the two have been handling a very defensive role for the Red Wings, taking over some of the shutdown minutes previously played by Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson's pairing.
While it's unclear if Seider's adjusted usage makes the Red Wings a better side, it should help Seider produce at a greater rate offensively. Seider has had a marvelous campaign and would likely be in the Norris conversation if usage and defensive play were more heavily weighted, but he has been in strong form offensively of late with six points over the last six games.
Over the last ten games, the Red Wings have held a 53.15% expected goal share and have generated 3.65 xGF/60.
John Gibson is likely to get the start on Saturday. After a slow start to the season, Gibson now holds a .907 save percentage and +13.0 GSAx rating across 46 appearances.
Bruins vs. Red Wings Prediction
At the time of writing, the prices on sides in this game appear to be fair, and at least to me, it's not a spot where it feels easy to feel confident one side has a notable edge. Games featuring teams fighting for playoff significance have been tightening up of late, and we've seen more narrowly contested matchups featuring lower scorelines.
Oddsmakers are guarding against that narrative with a low total of 5.5, but this does seem like a great spot to back a regulation tie at +320, as it seems likely that we will see an evenly contested matchup where neither team garners much separation on the scoreboard.
And though there is logic stating both teams would benefit more from a regulation win here than usual, these types of matchups, where both teams are so desperate to get at least one point, have been heading to overtime quite often.
A key reason the Eastern Conference Wildcard spots are likely to finish with much higher point totals than usual is that many of the matchups between teams fighting for position have been three-point games.
At +320, I think this appears to be a really strong spot to take a stab at one of my favourite long shot bets, and back the game requiring overtime.
Pick: Regulation Tie +320 (bet365, Play to +300)
