Canucks vs. Red Wings Odds, Preview, Prediction: Detroit Looks to Continue Red-Hot Goalscoring (October 16)

Canucks vs. Red Wings Odds, Preview, Prediction: Detroit Looks to Continue Red-Hot Goalscoring (October 16) article feature image
Credit:

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Vladislav Namestnikov.

Canucks vs. Red Wings Odds

Canucks Odds -120
Red Wings Odds +105
Over/Under 5.5
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Vancouver Canucks are playing their third game in four nights against the Detroit Red Wings on Saturday, and the betting line reflects that.

While the Red Wings are coming off a heart-breaking loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning after blowing a third-period lead against the defending Stanley Cup Champions.

What type of game should we expect on Saturday, as both teams struggle according to their advanced metrics?

Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks elected to start primary goalie Thatcher Demko on Friday, meaning Jaroslav Halak will start the second night of the back-to-back set. Halak was unimpressive last season, putting up the second-worst save percentage of his career while stopping -1.6 Goals Saved Above Average. The Canucks won’t offer any relief to Halak after getting outplayed in their first two games of the season. 

Vancouver was outplayed at 5-on-5 in both games this season. The Canucks were out-possessed, posting a negative Fenwick rating in both games this season, resulting in a negative expected goals for (xGF) percentage at 5-on-5 in both games. Cumulatively, the Canucks posted a 43.6% xGF percentage through two games this season.

That will mean extra work for Halak as he gets acclimated to the Canucks. He was already at risk of regression after posting an 87.0% high-danger save percentage at even strength last season, well above his career-mark of 81.5%. The Slovakian netminder will see more shots than he is accustomed to, thanks to the Canucks questionable defensive zone structure. Increased opportunities against him will facilitate Halak’s regression towards the mean.


Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings led the Lightning 6-3 with less than seven minutes to go on Thursday, blowing their big lead before eventually losing in overtime. According to the box score, the Red Wings were lucky to be playing with the lead after getting thoroughly dominated for three periods.

Detroit gave up 26 scoring chances and 13 high-danger chances at five-on-five, with those numbers expanding to 44 and 19 thanks to Tampa’s seven power-play opportunities. The Red Wings overachieved relative to their advance metrics, outscoring the Lightning 4-2 at 5-on-5 despite posting an xGF percentage of 45.8%.

Poor relative metrics notwithstanding, the Red Wings demonstrated elite finishing against the Lightning, capitalizing on three of their six high-danger opportunities. Detroit’s 23.1% shooting percentage is not sustainable, but the elevated output should continue against the Canucks’ faulty defensive zone coverage.

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Vancouver Canucks vs. Detroit Red Wings  Pick

Neither team uses advanced metrics to their advantage, which could lead to a sloppy game on Saturday night. The Canucks are in a bad spot, starting their back-up goalie on the second night of a back-to-back with travel. However, the Red Wings were horrible in their season-opening loss and will give up chances to a dangerous Canucks’ attack. Vancouver will return the favor, perpetuating their concerning defensive zone metrics against the Red Wings. We’re betting this game goes over the total, as both teams take advantage of the circumstances.

Pick: Over 5.5 -120

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