The Colorado Avalanche will look to take a 3-0 series stranglehold as they face off against the Los Angeles Kings in Game 3 Thursday evening. Puck drop is set for 10:00 p.m. EDT at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, Calif. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Avalanche are priced at +160 to cover the puck-line (-1.5), with the over/under set at 5.5 (-115o/-105u). The Avalanche are a -165 favorite to win outright, while the Kings are +140 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Avalanche vs. Kings predictions and NHL picks.
Avalanche vs. Kings Odds, Pick
| Avalanche Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +159 | 5.5 -115o / -105u | -161 |
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -195 | 5.5 -115o / -105u | +135 |
- Avalanche vs. Kings Spread: Avalanche -1.5 (+160), Kings +1.5 (-190)
- Avalanche vs. Kings Over/Under: 5.5 (-115o/-105u)
- Avalanche vs. Kings Moneyline: Avalanche -165, Kings +140
Avalanche vs Kings Polymarket Odds
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Avalanche vs. Kings Preview
Colorado Avalanche
The Kings have succeeded in making this series into a low-event slog, with both games ending 2-1. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar have combined for just one point, and Los Angeles has done a good job of keeping Colorado's elite talents in check.
Though Los Angeles has theoretically been just a bounce or two away from earning a different result in each matchup, in this instance, coming up one goal short may not truly mean it is that close to actually winning, given just how few quality scoring chances the Kings are generating.
In Game 2, the Avalanche allowed only 2.02 expected goals against and eight high-danger scoring chances. The Kings' neutral zone trap and extremely defensive tactics have made life frustrating for Colorado offensively, but the Avalanche are likely not overly concerned with how the games have played out, given that they haven't really been close to conceding a higher output of goals against.
The Avalanche were one of the very best defensive teams in the NHL this season, particularly if you reduce the weight of a down period in the middle of the campaign, when at that point winning the Presidents' Trophy was already more-or-less a foregone conclusion.
One of the few legitimate concerns for the Avalanche this season was their ineffectiveness with the man advantage, as they finished with a 17.1% success rate and have not scored a power play goal in the series. After shifting Martin Necas's and Nathan MacKinnon's roles in the final month of the season, their power play was much more effective, but the Kings' penalty kill has done a relatively good job of keeping Colorado's top talents to the outside in this series.
After a fantastic regular season, Scott Wedgewood has been sharp thus far in the series, as he holds a .960 save percentage and +3.4 GSAx rating. The eye test suggests a +3.4 GSAx rating might be a little generous, but Wedgewood has undoubtedly stopped everything he is supposed to and then some in this series.
Los Angeles Kings
Based on the Kings style of play this season and the overall David vs. Goliath nature of this matchup, very few neutral observers would have picked this series as one of the more intriguing first-round matchups. Both games featuring very close scorelines have arguably added a small layer of excitement, but the gameplay certainly has not been overly interesting.
Despite being down 0-2, it seems unlikely that head coach D.J. Smith will look to adjust his tactics entering Game 3, and probably will stand firm in his belief that effectively "parking the bus" is the best way to hang around with an Avalanche side that offers drastically more offensive upside.
Despite playing in the very weak Pacific Division, the Kings generated just 2.68 goals per game this season, which is the worst mark of any team to qualify for the postseason. 40.2% of the Kings' regular-season games required overtime this season, and while that is a shocking statistic, it's not surprising given the team's approach.
The Kings allowed only 3.16 xGA/60 during the regular season, which was the sixth-best mark in the NHL. While they limit true defensive breakdowns effectively and do not allow many odd-man rushes, that's a much easier task to accomplish for a team with a dated and cautious offensive attack.
Los Angeles' power play was much more effective down the stretch following the addition of Artemi Panarin, and both of the Kings' goals in this series have come with the man advantage. The Kings are effectively attempting to make the five-on-five portions of each game extremely low-event and seemingly looking to outperform Colorado on special teams.
Anton Forsberg holds a .941 save percentage and +3.1 GSAx in the first two games of the series and is expected to get the start in Game 3.
Avalanche vs. Kings Prediction
The Kings have taken an extremely defensive approach to this series, leaning on a neutral zone trap and commitment to keeping five bodies behind the puck at even strength to attempt to give themselves a chance versus an opponent with significantly more offensive firepower.
Given that both matchups have featured close scorelines, there's an argument to be made that the approach is working. Los Angeles has not necessarily appeared close to generating the additional goals that have been needed to actually win the previous two games, though, and coming up one goal short may not necessarily mean it is as close as it seems.
Both goaltenders have been sharp in this series, which has certainly been aided by the fact that they are not being forced to move east-west following plays through a seam very often at five-on-five, while most shots also have come with the shooter still somewhat or fully pressured (harder for a shooter to pick a spot).
We are yet to see a first-period goal in this series, and that trend seems worth riding in Game 3, given that the Kings' approach will not change. At -105, there looks to be value backing the first period to feature fewer than two goals.
Pick: First Period Under 1.5 -105 (Bet365, Play to -115)
