Lightning vs. Hurricanes Odds, Picks & Game 2 Preview: The ML Angle For Tuesday

The Carolina Hurricanes will enter Game 2 desperate to find a win and avoid heading back to Tampa in an 0-2 hole. Game 1 saw the Hurricanes come out buzzing in front of a raucous 87% capacity crowd of 16,299 at PNC Arena, but Andrei Vasilevskiy and the Tampa Bay Lightning hung tough and snuck out a 2-1 victory.

Vasilevskiy was the difference in what was a hard-fought and well-played Game 1, stopping 37 of 38 shots en route to being named the game's first star. After Jake Bean tied the game early in the third on a power-play shot from the point, Barclay Goodrow put Tampa ahead yet again with a very weak tally at 12:39 into the third.

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Rookie netminder Alex Nedeljkovic was fine overall for Carolina and has been great so far in these playoffs. Unfortunately, he'll bear most of the brunt for the tough loss given the horrible timing of the very shaky go-ahead goal for the Lightning.

Carolina led in expected goals (xG), 2.76-2.35, in Game 1 and clearly had good energy throughout most of the game. However, Tampa Bay found a way to get a huge result, with many similar ingredients to other of its recent playoff successes.

Brayden Point continued what has been another excellent playoff run so far with a power-play tally from Victor Hedman and Nikita Kucherov. It was another excellent outing from Point's line alongside Kucherov and Ondrej Palat, with a 72.09 xGF% over the contest being Tampa Bay's only positive trio analytically speaking. The line has been absolutely spectacular the last two playoff seasons and is a massive reason why the Bolts sit poised to make another deep run yet again.

Erik Cernak left midway through the second in Game 1 after being sandwiched between two Canes forwards behind his goal. The underrated defenseman is particularly of importance with David Savard already day to day, however word is that Cernak should be good to go for Game 2.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.

Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.

xG numbers and advanced stats cited from Evolving Hockey, MoneyPuck and Natural Stat Trick.

Carolina will need to find a way to get some more pucks past Vasilevskiy if it wants to succeed in Game 2. I think that the talent is certainly there to do so, and we shouldn't look too deeply into the offensive stumble in Game 1. If Carolina can play a similar game defensively, and perhaps fare better with regards to special teams as they have all season long, I like their chances to bounce back in Game 2.

The Canes sit with an 86.2 penalty kill percentage so far in the playoffs, and a 20.2 power-play percentage for a combined special teams number of 106.4%, a very strong number in line with their 110.2% from the regular season. There are not many teams who conceivably play even with Tampa Bay with regards to special teams, but the Hurricanes certainly may be able to.

Tampa Bay's power play has clicked at 39.1% so far in the playoffs, receiving a massive boost in the return of Nikita Kucherov. Carolina's ability to limit penalties taken and control Tampa to a reasonable power play percentage will go a long way in determining what by all accounts appears to be a very close series between to excellent rosters and cup favorites.

Coach Rod Brind'Amour stated that it is "very, very doubtful" Nino Niederreiter will play again in round two, a loss that certainly hurts for Carolina. Niederreiter scored 20 goals in 56 regular-season contests this season.

But injuries are a part of the playoffs, and there is certainly still a deep plethora of guys who should be able to help fill the void for this Carolina group.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

With the game opening as a pick'em on most books, I see value in backing Carolina to put together a similar effort as Game 1 but find a better result tomorrow night.

As I have broken down, Game 1 was very closely contested, with Carolina very arguably putting together the better effort but ultimately unable to overcome Goodrow's very soft third-period goal.

Vasilevskiy being spectacular is something very replicable, and Carolina will need to work to force passes through seams and get lots of bodies in front for quality screens and deflections to fare better. However, Carolina did do an excellent job of making life tough for Juuse Saros in the first round, and I think they can trend upwards in Game 2 if they have a similar control of play.

But even as played, Carolina would often fare better in Game 1 given some better puck luck. Jaccob Slavin's post-hitting shot finding the back of the cage, or Nedeljkovic stopping the Goodrow game-winner as he should and regularly would ultimately were the difference.

For me, Nedeljkovic is not a concern given how well he's played so far in the playoffs and how good he was during the season.

There is good reason to think that Carolina can put together a similar effort to Game 1 and get a better result, but I also see some logical areas where the Canes could progress given a longer term form of their season.

I think there is a good chance Carolina bounces back here and salvages a home split, and I'd play it up to a price of -122.

Pick: Carolina -110 (play up to -122)