NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Blackhawks vs Avalanche (Thursday, October 19)
Claus Andersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Corey Perry of the Chicago Blachhawks
Blackhawks vs Avalanche Odds
| Blackhawks Odds | +275 |
| Avalanche Odds | -345 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -105 / -115 |
The Blackhawks were expected to be among the worst teams this season, but they've done well during their opening road trip, taking two of four games.
Chicago now has a chance to finish its road trip with a surprising 3-2-0 record if it can overcome the odds once more by defeating the Avalanche, who are off to a 3-0-0 start.
Let's look at Blackhawks vs. Avalanche Thursday night.
If someone told you before the campaign began that Chicago was going to open the season 2-2-0, you'd probably take that as a sign Connor Bedard, selected with the first overall pick in the 2023 NHL Draft, was off to a monster start.
That hasn't been the case, though. Bedard has been solid with a goal and three points in four games, but he's not setting himself apart from the pack – yet.
Instead, Corey Perry of all people is leading the Blackhawks offensively with a goal and four points at the age of 38. Tyler Johnson has also made his presence felt with three goals.
That's helped, but Chicago's biggest strength thus far has – shockingly – been its goaltending. Petr Mrazek and Arvid Soderblom have each started in two games and combined to post a 2.02 GAA and .944 save percentage over that span.
Mrazek was terrible over the previous two campaigns with a 3.55 GAA and an .893 save percentage in 59 contests while Soderblom posted a 3.45 GAA and an .894 save percentage in 15 outings last year. So, to say little was expected of the duo this season would be an understatement.
Mrazek and Soderblom have not only been good, but they've masked a problem: Chicago's defense has been horrible. The Blackhawks rank 31st this season with 9.52 5v5 expected goals against, per Moneypuck, so if not for Mrazek and Soderblom, Chicago could have very easily begun this campaign at 0-4-0.
Can Chicago's goaltending continue to play at this level though? The Avalanche will be another big test of that.
Chicago's ability to tread water is surprising, but the Avalanche's 3-0-0 start isn't.
Sure, Colorado began on the road with Thursday's contest serving as its home opener, but the Avalanche were seen as one of the league's top teams going into the campaign.
Even still, Alexandar Georgiev's play thus far has been impressive. He has a 3-0-0 record, 1.30 GAA and .958 save percentage in three starts to reinforce that his strong 2022-23 campaign – he earned 40 wins while posting a 2.53 GAA and a .918 save percentage – was no fluke.
That's especially important because with Pavel Francouz (groin) out indefinitely, Colorado's only alternative in net is Ivan Prosvetov, who has just 13 games worth of NHL experience.
Colorado's offense hasn't stood out as much as Georgiev, but it's gotten the job done, scoring an average of 3.33 goals per game.
Defenseman Cale Makar already has two goals and four points this year, and Tuesday he became the fastest blueliner to 250 points in NHL history in terms of games played (just 241).
Mikko Rantanen (three goals, five points) and Nathan MacKinnon (one goal, three points) have also delivered over Colorado's first three contests, but the Avalanche will need more help from their supporting cast in the long run. In particular, summer additions Ryan Johansen and Jonathan Drouin, haven't really made their presence felt yet.
Blackhawks vs. Avalanche
Betting Pick & Prediction
Chicago's solid start hasn't swayed oddsmakers. Even on FanDuel's puck line, where the spread is 1.5 goals in favor of Chicago, selecting the Avalanche offers a potential return of just -144. And if you took Colorado on the moneyline, the odds are -360 (just a $27.78 payout on a $100 bet).
With those low returns, it doesn't feel worth it to bet on Colorado, but by the same token, is it really wise to gamble on the Blackhawks?
Sure, their goaltending has been great so far, but with their defensive struggles and their mediocre offense, it seems like just a matter of time before the other shoe drops.
In some ways, the 2023-24 Blackhawks remind me of the 2022-23 Flyers. They kicked off the year 7-3-2 thanks to an unreal 6-0-2 start with a 1.97 GAA and a .946 save percentage from Carter Hart before finally he returned to Earth and the Flyers' underlining flaws were exposed.
But in the meantime, Chicago is an interesting team, and while I don't trust the Blackhawks to beat Colorado, I don't have to. With the oddsmakers favoring the Avalanche so much, we can still get a solid return betting on this merely being a close game by taking Chicago on the puck line.
An alternative path would be to select the Under of 6.5 goals, which offers a lower potential payout but in my estimation is a safer option given the hot goaltending being featured.
Pick: Chicago +1.5 (+124 at DraftKings) | Play to: +105
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