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NHL Odds, Pick, Prediction: Blues vs. Flames (April 2)

NHL Odds, Pick, Prediction: Blues vs. Flames (April 2) article feature image

Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Calgary Flames standout Noah Hanifin.

  • The Flames are home favorites against the Blues on Saturday night.
  • The Flames have had a recent offensive lull, so is there value in backing their offense to regress to the mean here?
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Blues vs. Flames Odds

Blues Odds+190
Flames Odds-250
Over/Under6.5 (-105 / -115)
Time10 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Central Division’s third-place St. Louis Blues travel to Calgary to take on the Pacific Division’s first-place Flames. This is the third meeting between these two teams this season as the first two matchups averaged seven total goals scored per game.

Will we get yet another high-scoring game between these two teams, or can the goaltending put a stop to two high-powered offenses?

Blues Offense on Fire

The St. Louis Blues enter this contest on the second half of a road back-to-back following Friday’s game against the Edmonton Oilers. Prior to the game against the Oilers, the Blues have seen many high-scoring games as there have been seven or more total goals scored in eight of their last 10 contests.

St. Louis’ offense has been on fire as they are averaging 3.9 goals scored per game over that stretch. This offensive production should not come as a huge surprise as the Blues rank 10th in the league this season in average Expected Goal Value of five-on-five shot attempts.

Meanwhile, goaltending has been wildly inconsistent for the Blues. Ville Husso is the confirmed starting goaltender for this matchup and has allowed three or more goals in three of his last five starts while posting a mere 0.881 Save Percentage over that stretch.

Defensively, the Blues also leave much to be desired. This season, they rank just 25th in the league in five-on-five Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGA).

Flames Due for an Offensive Breakthrough

It is no secret that Calgary possesses one of the best offenses in the league this season as they rank fourth in five-on-five Expected Goals For per 60 minutes (xGF). The Flames have scored just three goals over their last two games combined, and an offense of this caliber can not be shut down for much longer.

Prior to their last two games, the Flames were averaging 4.5 goals scored per game over the previous six contests. This season, the Flames are averaging an outstanding 3.48 goals scored per game.

In this contest, I expect the Flames to have some positive regression back to the mean and have an offensive outburst. This is a very doable task against a St. Louis defense that bleeds high-danger scoring chances.

Jacob Markstrom is the projected starting goaltender for Calgary and has struggled against St. Louis this year. In his two starts against the Blues this season, Markstrom possesses a mere 0.878 Save Percentage and a 3.00 Goals Allowed Average.

Blues vs. Flames Pick

These are two dynamite offenses that rarely struggle to put the puck in the back of the net. With an average of seven goals per game scored between the first two contests, I like this total to go over 6.5.

The last time the Flames scored just three goals over a two-game stretch this season, they scored six goals in the following game.

Pick: Blues/Flames Over 6.5 (+100) | Play up to (-120)

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