NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Blues vs. Golden Knights

Blues vs. Golden Knights Odds

The Golden Knights have a commanding 23-11-1 record, but that's largely thanks to their hot start. Since Nov. 12, when the Golden Knights lost to the Blues, Vegas is 10-9-1.

Will St. Louis best Vegas again Friday night, or will the Golden Knights get revenge?

Let's breakdown the odds and make a betting prediction.

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St. Louis Blues

While Vegas started hot and cooled, the Blues have been on a roller coaster all season.

Given the Blues' inconsistent play, it can be hard to evaluate them, but when you step back and take their season as a whole, St. Louis is a mediocre 16-16-1.

The talent is there, which is why the Blues sometimes look so unbeatable. Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn, Ivan Barbashev and Brayden Schenn all demonstrated last season that they're worthy top-six forwards. However, the Blues are tied for the 22nd-best offense with 3.00 goals per game.

There's no one forward responsible for the Blues' decline. It's a combination of things. Barbashev had 26 goals and 60 points in 81 contests last season, but has been limited to five goals and 16 points in 33 games this season. Ryan O'Reilly has nine goals and 15 points in 33 contests, and if he doesn't pick up his scoring pace, this will be his worst campaign since 2010-11 in terms of points per game. Brandon Saad has seven goals and nine points through 26 games, which is the worst offensive pace of his career, excluding 2011-12 when he was a rookie and played in just two games. Plus David Perron, who contributed 57 points with St. Louis last season, is now playing for Detroit.

Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington can sometimes make the up the difference and deliver St. Louis a win regardless, but he embodies the Blues' inconsistency. For example, from Nov. 10-21, he won six straight games while allowing just 12 goals, but from Nov. 23-Dec. 11, he lost seven consecutive contests. At the moment, Binnington is on one of his hot streaks, posting a 3-0-0 record, 1.29 GAA and a .953 save percentage in his past three games.

If you're wondering why the Blues don't send out Thomas Greiss more often, the answer is Greiss has a 4-5-0 record, 3.55 GAA and a .903 save percentage in 11 contests.

The Blues might not be a bad team, but they have some significant points of concern.

Las Vegas Golden Knights

If you take the Golden Knights' season as a whole, they're clearly the better team, but it would be more accurate to evaluate them on their performance from Nov. 12 onward.

Vegas is tied for the 10th-best offense with 3.29 goals per game this season, but from Nov. 12, the Golden Knights actually rank 22nd with 2.90 goals per game.

It certainly doesn't help that Jack Eichel is dealing with a lower-body injury and has played in just one of Vegas' past nine contests. Top offensive defenseman Alex Pietrangelo is healthy now, but he also missed nine games over Vegas' past 20. Additionally, Shea Theodore hasn't played since Dec. 9 because of a leg injury.

Some of the Golden Knights players have seen a drop off in offensive production since Nov. 12 as well. None of the declines have been huge, but when you combine injuries with moderate drops, it adds up.

In Vegas' first 15 games, there were nine players who averaged at least 0.65 points per game while getting into at least 11 contests (close to 75% of games played). Over the past 20 games, just four Golden Knights players have averaged at least 0.65 PPG while playing in at least 15 contests.

That problem has been compounded by the Golden Knights' goaltending. Robin Lehner hasn't played at all this season because of a hip injury, but in the early portion of the season, Logan Thompson and Adin Hill did a brilliant job filling that void. Prior to Nov. 12, Thompson had a 2.31 GAA and a .925 save percentage in 13 games while Hill posted a 2.32 GAA and a .920 save percentage in six contests.

Hill has struggled mightily since that though, recording a 3.02 GAA and a .886 save percentage in his past seven starts. Thompson has fared better, but has left something to be desired with his 2.84 GAA and .910 save percentage in over his past 13 games.

In summary, it's been a while since Vegas has performed like a truly dominate team.

Blues vs. Golden Knights Pick

Despite Vegas' mediocre play of late, the Golden Knights are still being treated like the favorite.

To be fair, it's not like the Blues have been a dominate team, and the game is in Vegas, so there is a certain logic to the Golden Knights being given the edge.

Still, the moneyline odds offered are pulling me toward the Blues. I tend to like bets I view as safer than this, but chances of St. Louis winning aren't bad in my mind and the potential payout makes up for the extra risk.

If you want a safer bet and don't mind accepting a smaller possible return, then take St. Louis on the puck line. Given the Golden Knights' mediocre play of late, I don't expect them to cover the spread even if they do manage to squeak out a win.

Pick: Blues Moneyline

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