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Bruins vs. Senators NHL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expect Defensive Battle in Eastern Conference Clash (February 19)

Bruins vs. Senators NHL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expect Defensive Battle in Eastern Conference Clash (February 19) article feature image
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Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ottawa Senators goaltender Matt Murray.

  • The Boston Bruins head north of the border Saturday to face the Ottawa Senators.
  • Brad Marchand will still be missing for the Bruins after his suspension was upheld.
  • Tony Saroti takes a deep look at this meeting below and explains why he's expecting a defensive contest.

Bruins vs. Senators Odds

Bruins Odds -185
Senators Odds +160
Over/Under 5.5 (-120/+100)
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL here.

We got an Atlantic Division showdown Saturday, with the Boston Bruins ending their four-game road trip against the Ottawa Senators.

These teams squared off exactly a week ago, with Boston notching a 2-0 road victory.

That said, will we see another low-scoring game between these teams or will we see the lamp light up more than just a few times?

Boston Bruins

The Bruins travel to Ottawa following their 4-1 road loss to the New York Islanders on Thursday. Some news came out Fridaythat star winger Brad Marchand’s suspension appeal was denied, so he will be out for the fifth consecutive game.

The Bruins’ scoring has taken a noticeable dip without the team’s leading point-scorer, resulting in the total staying under 5.5 goals in three of those four games without Marchand. Another reason to be optimistic for a low-scoring game is the fact that Jeremy Swayman is projected to be in net for Boston.

Swayman has had a great run so far this season, posting a 0.923 SV%. Swayman shut out Ottawa in their meeting last week and held them to just two goals in their first meeting back in November.

However, the success Swayman has seen is not all on him as the Bruins’ blue line has proven to be one of the best in the league. Led by star defenseman Charlie MacAvoy, Boston ranks first in the league in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA) and in average expected goal value of opposing 5-on-5 shot attempts.

Ottawa Senators

The Senators are set to defend their home rink as they return home following Thursday’s 3-1 road win over the Buffalo Sabres. Like the Bruins, Ottawa has seen some low-scoring games lately, as 12 of their last 14 games have stayed under 5.5 total goals.

Matt Murray is projected to get the start tonight and is having a big bounce-back season as Ottawa’s backup goaltender. Murray has put an impressive 0.919 SV% and would rank fifth amongst starting goaltenders in 5-on-5 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx).

Murray has been in even stronger form recently as he has allowed two or fewer goals in six of his last seven starts, including only allowing two in his start against the Bruins last week. It is worth noting that Ottawa’s offense, however, has really struggled recently without Josh Norris and Drake Batherson, who are both still nursing injuries.

Without two of their leading goal scorers, Ottawa has slipped to 21st in the league in 5-on-5 expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF) and 23rd in average xG value of 5-on-5 shot attempts.

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Bruins-Senators Pick

Both projected starting goaltenders have been very solid for their teams this season. Needless to say I suspect that will be a low-scoring game, especially with Marchand, Norris and Batherson sidelined.

This will be the third meeting between these teams, with both previous contests staying under 5.5 total goals. I think they make It three consecutive games in this meeting.

Pick: Total Under 5.5 Goals (+100 | Play to -115)

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