Wednesday NHL Odds, Pick, Prediction: Montreal Canadiens vs. Boston Bruins Betting Preview

Wednesday NHL Odds, Pick, Prediction: Montreal Canadiens vs. Boston Bruins Betting Preview article feature image

John McCreary/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Taylor Hall

  • The Montreal Canadiens are big underdogs on the road in Boston on Wednesday night.
  • However, rather than trying to find value in the ML odds, analyst Grant White is backing Montreal's improving offense to help get this game over the total.
  • Check out below why he's landed on this intriguing wager.

Canadiens vs. Bruins Odds

Canadiens Odds+265
Bruins Odds-320
Time7 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

On Wednesday night, the Montreal Canadiens travel to Boston for an Original Six matchup with the Bruins. The provincial government imposed spectator limits for the Habs, forcing the NHL to postpone all of the Habs' home games until the end of the month.

They also needed some time to resolve some COVID-19 issues on their team, meaning this will be their fourth of 10 straight road games and first since January 1.

The Bruins Are Clicking

The Bruins are in fine form coming into their intra-divisional matchup against the Habs. Boston has a cumulative 58.3% expected goals-for rating at 5-on-5 over their past seven games, outplaying six of their seven opponents. The B's are getting things done on both ends of the ice, which will cause issues for Montreal, as they play their first game in over a week and a half.

Offensively, the Bruins are clicking. The Patrice Bergeron-led B's have attempted 10 or more high-danger chances at five-on-five in four of their past seven, out-chancing their opponents in five of those games. Their metrics across all strengths are even better, with the Bruins attempting an average of 12.1 high-danger and 35.0 scoring chances over the seven-game sample.

Those rock-solid production metrics are leading to increased output, with the B's scoring four or more goals in five of seven contests. Still, the Bruins' season-long metrics remain below-average, with their shooting percentage ranking 25th in the league, dragging their PDO down to 0.997 with it.

Analytically, Boston remains one of the best teams in the league, and further progression is anticipated.

Montreal's Offense Is Trending Up

Goaltending remains an issue for the Canadiens, and those issues could be compounded by rust on Wednesday night. Habs' goalies have allowed four or more goals in five of their past six, stopping just 89.1% of shots along the way. Sadly, that's not a significant departure from their season-long average, as Jake Allen and the rest of Montreal's goalies have combined for an 89.4% save percentage.

The Habs have been prone to sloppy defensive zone coverage all season, and that's even more evident over their recent sample. Montreal has allowed 54 high-danger chances and 117 scoring opportunities over their past three games, with two of their three opponents going north of 19 high-danger and 42 scoring chances.

As bad as they've been defensively, the Habs are starting to gain some offensive momentum. Across all strengths, Montreal has attempted at least 10 high-danger chances in five straight games, attempting 12 or more in three of those contests.

The Habs have scored just 10 goals over that span, with a cumulative 6.3% shooting percentage. We're expecting offensive progression from the Habs as their output metrics start to catch up with production.

Canadiens vs. Bruins Pick

We've seen teams come out flat after an extended break, and we're expecting Boston to take advantage of a sluggish Montreal. Still, the Habs have flashed offensive prowess recently and should see increased output over their coming games.

Although there may be an advantage in backing the Bruins, we're making a play on the over in Wednesday night's Atlantic Division matchup.

Pick: Over 5.5 -125

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