Capitals vs. Kraken Odds, Preview, Prediction: Bet Seattle as Live Underdog in NHL Clash (Nov. 21)

Capitals vs. Kraken Odds, Preview, Prediction: Bet Seattle as Live Underdog in NHL Clash (Nov. 21) article feature image
Credit:

Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Seattle Kraken goaltender Philipp Grubauer.

  • Washington plays the second of a back-to-back as it travels to Seattle on Sunday.
  • The Kraken have just four wins on the season, but metrics indicate they've been a bit unlucky.
  • Grant White breaks down the game and gives his top pick, below.

Capitals vs. Kraken Odds

Capitals Odds -130
Kraken Odds +110
Over/Under 5.5
Time 9 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

If you’ve been following the opening lines for the Seattle Kraken this week, you’ll notice that they were shorter underdogs against the Washington Capitals than they were against the Colorado Avalanche.

There are several differences to consider, but are the Kraken worth backing on Sunday’s NHL slate?

Washington Capitals

The Capitals will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back set when they take on the Kraken. Washington has been among the best teams in the league, but its metrics indicate it’s at risk of regression in the near future.

Washington has been outplayed in six of its past eight outings, posting game scores below 50.0% at 5-on-5 overall. Offensive production has been particularly concerning over that stretch, as the Capitals have attempted nine or fewer high-danger and 22 or fewer scoring chances in six of those contests. Limited production hasn’t impacted Washington’s output, as it has scored 20 goals at 5-on-5 and 26 overall across those six contests.

It’s also worth noting that the Capitals posted their second-worst game score of the season the last time played on the second night of a back-to-back set. Washington attempted just 16 scoring and two high-danger chances in that contest, but still earned a 4-3 victory.

That contributes to the bigger issue that the Capitals continue to outplay their metrics. Washington ranks fourth in the league with a goals-for percentage of 64.3%, substantially higher than its 10th-ranked expected value of 52.3 percent.

Seattle Kraken

The Kraken are positioned on the opposite end of the progression/regression spectrum and have underachieved relative to their expected outcomes. We’re expecting a step forward from them over the course of their upcoming games.

Seattle has posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in 10 of their past 12 games. During that stretch, its cumulative rating is 57.2%, significantly higher than its actual value of 41.8%. A disconnect between expected and actual output implies that the Kraken are overdue for a reversal of fortune.

Another indicator is the Kraken’s PDO at the moment. Despite operating one of the staunchest defensive units in the league, Seattle has the worst 5-on-5 save percentage in the NHL.

Philipp Grubauer has been the Kraken’s primary goaltender, but has yet to adapt to his new team. Grubauer remains below career norms in high-danger, 5-on-5 and scoring-chance save percentages, resulting in the lowest save percentage of his career. His 87.5% save percentage is more than 4.0% lower than his previous career low.

Look for Grubauer and the Kraken’s team save percentage to start working up toward average as the season progresses.

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Capitals vs. Kraken Pick

This game’s circumstances favor the Kraken, while the betting price clearly does not.

Washington is playing its second game in as many nights amid a downturn in its metrics. The Kraken are overdue for puck luck and should start to notch a few more victories as their stats balance out with expected values.

That said, we’re taking another stance on the Kraken as plus-money home underdogs.

Pick: Seattle (+110)

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